The following is a set of election result predictions based on 5 scenarios. These results were obtained by running simulations of registered voters in the 2012 Q4 electoral roll casting their vote.
The calculations that drive the simulation are based on each voter’s voting preference in the previous General Election (2008). The detailed methodology for this analysis will be explained in a future blog post.
In 2008, the election results were unexpected and resulted in a big victory for Pakatan Rakyat component parties. This voting pattern will be referred to as the ‘tsunami effect’. Our simulations are based on the following rules:
- voting preferences and turnout probability for each voter remain the same as they did in 2008. This was calculated as a probability based on lane (saluran) results from the last election
- voting preferences for new voters are based on their peers – individuals with similar characteristics (age, race, location) in the electoral roll
- a change in preference (swing) applied to each individual depending on the conditions of the scenario
- there are only 2 choices – Pakatan Rakyat (PR) or Barisan Nasional (BN).
- PR can be interpreted as ‘any party that is not part of the BN coalition’. This is especially true for Sabah and Sarawak.
- the independent candidates do not receive any votes – due to time constraint this factor from the last election could not be included in the simulations
For each scenario we ran 200-500 simulations for each of the 13.29 million voters. Essentially the vote is simulated by answering 2 questions based on probabilities and swing:
- Will I vote?
- Who will I vote for?
Out of 5 scenarios, PR wins at most 106 seats.
Apart from swing factors stated in each scenario, other factors that affect PR’s victory / loss in these simulations are:
- New voters being registered
- Old voters from 2008 being removed from the roll
- Voters transferring between constituencies
The list of seats won by PR for each scenario are listed below, along with the minimum and maximum winning majorities.
Scenario 1
- Tsunami effect from 2008 retained
- No swing
Results
PR wins 83 seats.
BN wins 139 seats.
Seats won by PR
| Seat Code | Name | State | Min majority | Max majority |
| P.003 | ARAU | (PERLIS) | 1 | 311 |
| P.007 | PADANG TERAP | (KEDAH) | 430 | 1513 |
| P.008 | POKOK SENA | (KEDAH) | 5922 | 7519 |
| P.009 | ALOR STAR | (KEDAH) | 3 | 548 |
| P.010 | KUALA KEDAH | (KEDAH) | 7597 | 8964 |
| P.011 | PENDANG | (KEDAH) | 4012 | 5833 |
| P.012 | JERAI | (KEDAH) | 1380 | 2751 |
| P.013 | SIK | (KEDAH) | 1051 | 2171 |
| P.014 | MERBOK | (KEDAH) | 4 | 1582 |
| P.015 | SUNGAI PETANI | (KEDAH) | 7161 | 8761 |
| P.016 | BALING | (KEDAH) | 8669 | 10308 |
| P.017 | PADANG SERAI | (KEDAH) | 10265 | 11641 |
| P.018 | KULIM-BANDAR BAHARU | (KEDAH) | 4273 | 5590 |
| P.019 | TUMPAT | (KELANTAN) | 11839 | 13471 |
| P.020 | PENGKALAN CHEPA | (KELANTAN) | 13134 | 14425 |
| P.021 | KOTA BHARU | (KELANTAN) | 13559 | 15159 |
| P.022 | PASIR MAS | (KELANTAN) | 10314 | 11789 |
| P.023 | RANTAU PANJANG | (KELANTAN) | 4845 | 5962 |
| P.024 | KUBANG KERIAN | (KELANTAN) | 12352 | 13770 |
| P.025 | BACHOK | (KELANTAN) | 2923 | 4628 |
| P.026 | KETEREH | (KELANTAN) | 4 | 1157 |
| P.027 | TANAH MERAH | (KELANTAN) | 1799 | 3301 |
| P.028 | PASIR PUTEH | (KELANTAN) | 4348 | 5792 |
| P.029 | MACHANG | (KELANTAN) | 1310 | 2608 |
| P.031 | KUALA KRAI | (KELANTAN) | 5574 | 6988 |
| P.037 | MARANG | (TERENGGANU) | 2316 | 4104 |
| P.043 | BAGAN | (PULAU PINANG) | 21854 | 23015 |
| P.044 | PERMATANG PAUH | (PULAU PINANG) | 13178 | 14587 |
| P.045 | BUKIT MERTAJAM | (PULAU PINANG) | 29021 | 30322 |
| P.046 | BATU KAWAN | (PULAU PINANG) | 8402 | 9744 |
| P.047 | NIBONG TEBAL | (PULAU PINANG) | 502 | 1824 |
| P.048 | BUKIT BENDERA | (PULAU PINANG) | 17074 | 18456 |
| P.049 | TANJONG | (PULAU PINANG) | 18244 | 19075 |
| P.050 | JELUTONG | (PULAU PINANG) | 17474 | 18754 |
| P.051 | BUKIT GELUGOR | (PULAU PINANG) | 26111 | 27350 |
| P.052 | BAYAN BARU | (PULAU PINANG) | 10070 | 11537 |
| P.053 | BALIK PULAU | (PULAU PINANG) | 476 | 1494 |
| P.057 | PARIT BUNTAR | (PERAK) | 7416 | 8415 |
| P.058 | BAGAN SERAI | (PERAK) | 3017 | 4166 |
| P.059 | BUKIT GANTANG | (PERAK) | 1073 | 2457 |
| P.060 | TAIPING | (PERAK) | 9852 | 11166 |
| P.062 | SUNGAI SIPUT | (PERAK) | 727 | 1933 |
| P.064 | IPOH TIMOR | (PERAK) | 22209 | 23452 |
| P.065 | IPOH BARAT | (PERAK) | 15631 | 16996 |
| P.066 | BATU GAJAH | (PERAK) | 25761 | 27117 |
| P.068 | BERUAS | (PERAK) | 1116 | 2178 |
| P.071 | GOPENG | (PERAK) | 7263 | 8896 |
| P.076 | TELOK INTAN | (PERAK) | 4 | 956 |
| P.082 | INDERA MAHKOTA | (PAHANG) | 37 | 1354 |
| P.083 | KUANTAN | (PAHANG) | 1174 | 2356 |
| P.094 | HULU SELANGOR | (SELANGOR) | 7 | 1198 |
| P.096 | KUALA SELANGOR | (SELANGOR) | 21 | 1132 |
| P.097 | SELAYANG | (SELANGOR) | 1979 | 3769 |
| P.098 | GOMBAK | (SELANGOR) | 6256 | 7991 |
| P.099 | AMPANG | (SELANGOR) | 2044 | 3598 |
| P.101 | HULU LANGAT | (SELANGOR) | 4 | 868 |
| P.102 | SERDANG | (SELANGOR) | 21237 | 23125 |
| P.103 | PUCHONG | (SELANGOR) | 11647 | 13187 |
| P.104 | KELANA JAYA | (SELANGOR) | 4092 | 5808 |
| P.105 | PETALING JAYA SELATAN | (SELANGOR) | 4029 | 5635 |
| P.106 | PETALING JAYA UTARA | (SELANGOR) | 20688 | 22174 |
| P.107 | SUBANG | (SELANGOR) | 7535 | 9588 |
| P.108 | SHAH ALAM | (SELANGOR) | 8805 | 10487 |
| P.109 | KAPAR | (SELANGOR) | 11349 | 13409 |
| P.110 | KLANG | (SELANGOR) | 14403 | 16029 |
| P.111 | KOTA RAJA | (SELANGOR) | 20272 | 22026 |
| P.112 | KUALA LANGAT | (SELANGOR) | 2 | 676 |
| P.114 | KEPONG | (W.P KUALA LUMPUR) | 25565 | 26737 |
| P.115 | BATU | (W.P KUALA LUMPUR) | 7033 | 8608 |
| P.117 | SEGAMBUT | (W.P KUALA LUMPUR) | 5978 | 7296 |
| P.119 | TITIWANGSA | (W.P KUALA LUMPUR) | 81 | 1354 |
| P.120 | BUKIT BINTANG | (W.P KUALA LUMPUR) | 11391 | 12448 |
| P.121 | LEMBAH PANTAI | (W.P KUALA LUMPUR) | 4 | 307 |
| P.122 | SEPUTEH | (W.P KUALA LUMPUR) | 39927 | 41033 |
| P.123 | CHERAS | (W.P KUALA LUMPUR) | 28025 | 29240 |
| P.124 | BANDAR TUN RAZAK | (W.P KUALA LUMPUR) | 420 | 2150 |
| P.128 | SEREMBAN | (NEGERI SEMBILAN) | 1255 | 2737 |
| P.130 | RASAH | (NEGERI SEMBILAN) | 9557 | 11334 |
| P.132 | TELOK KEMANG | (NEGERI SEMBILAN) | 5 | 805 |
| P.138 | KOTA MELAKA | (MELAKA) | 9427 | 10907 |
| P.145 | BAKRI | (JOHOR) | 2 | 761 |
| P.186 | SANDAKAN | (SABAH) | 2 | 255 |
| P.195 | BANDAR KUCHING | (SARAWAK) | 10112 | 11201 |
Scenario 2
- Tsunami effect from 2008 retained
- Young Malays +10% swing to BN
- Chinese +20% swing to PR
- Young voters (non-Malay, non-Chinese) +5% swing to PR
Results
PR wins 103 seats.
BN wins 119 seats.
Seats won by PR
| Seat Code | Name | State | Min majority | Max majority |
| P.003 | ARAU | (PERLIS) | 14 | 655 |
| P.007 | PADANG TERAP | (KEDAH) | 6 | 952 |
| P.008 | POKOK SENA | (KEDAH) | 9081 | 10372 |
| P.009 | ALOR STAR | (KEDAH) | 5323 | 6431 |
| P.010 | KUALA KEDAH | (KEDAH) | 12449 | 13967 |
| P.011 | PENDANG | (KEDAH) | 4376 | 5501 |
| P.012 | JERAI | (KEDAH) | 3679 | 5214 |
| P.013 | SIK | (KEDAH) | 470 | 1613 |
| P.014 | MERBOK | (KEDAH) | 3388 | 4644 |
| P.015 | SUNGAI PETANI | (KEDAH) | 14340 | 15606 |
| P.016 | BALING | (KEDAH) | 8551 | 10111 |
| P.017 | PADANG SERAI | (KEDAH) | 14318 | 15732 |
| P.018 | KULIM-BANDAR BAHARU | (KEDAH) | 6951 | 8217 |
| P.019 | TUMPAT | (KELANTAN) | 10819 | 12290 |
| P.020 | PENGKALAN CHEPA | (KELANTAN) | 12141 | 13349 |
| P.021 | KOTA BHARU | (KELANTAN) | 16255 | 17725 |
| P.022 | PASIR MAS | (KELANTAN) | 9765 | 10873 |
| P.023 | RANTAU PANJANG | (KELANTAN) | 3926 | 4957 |
| P.024 | KUBANG KERIAN | (KELANTAN) | 11556 | 12794 |
| P.025 | BACHOK | (KELANTAN) | 1625 | 3028 |
| P.027 | TANAH MERAH | (KELANTAN) | 1232 | 2444 |
| P.028 | PASIR PUTEH | (KELANTAN) | 2914 | 4335 |
| P.029 | MACHANG | (KELANTAN) | 752 | 1998 |
| P.031 | KUALA KRAI | (KELANTAN) | 5146 | 6559 |
| P.036 | KUALA TERENGGANU | (TERENGGANU) | 11 | 881 |
| P.037 | MARANG | (TERENGGANU) | 867 | 2281 |
| P.043 | BAGAN | (PULAU PINANG) | 34542 | 35411 |
| P.044 | PERMATANG PAUH | (PULAU PINANG) | 17239 | 18465 |
| P.045 | BUKIT MERTAJAM | (PULAU PINANG) | 41507 | 42442 |
| P.046 | BATU KAWAN | (PULAU PINANG) | 18385 | 19344 |
| P.047 | NIBONG TEBAL | (PULAU PINANG) | 6897 | 7854 |
| P.048 | BUKIT BENDERA | (PULAU PINANG) | 31925 | 32852 |
| P.049 | TANJONG | (PULAU PINANG) | 29550 | 30320 |
| P.050 | JELUTONG | (PULAU PINANG) | 30250 | 31146 |
| P.051 | BUKIT GELUGOR | (PULAU PINANG) | 42644 | 43498 |
| P.052 | BAYAN BARU | (PULAU PINANG) | 21512 | 22630 |
| P.053 | BALIK PULAU | (PULAU PINANG) | 4569 | 5628 |
| P.057 | PARIT BUNTAR | (PERAK) | 11302 | 12148 |
| P.058 | BAGAN SERAI | (PERAK) | 4677 | 5599 |
| P.059 | BUKIT GANTANG | (PERAK) | 5583 | 6979 |
| P.060 | TAIPING | (PERAK) | 18246 | 19395 |
| P.062 | SUNGAI SIPUT | (PERAK) | 6300 | 7103 |
| P.064 | IPOH TIMOR | (PERAK) | 38128 | 39037 |
| P.065 | IPOH BARAT | (PERAK) | 29349 | 30382 |
| P.066 | BATU GAJAH | (PERAK) | 42351 | 43343 |
| P.067 | KUALA KANGSAR | (PERAK) | 1 | 557 |
| P.068 | BERUAS | (PERAK) | 7727 | 8649 |
| P.070 | KAMPAR | (PERAK) | 5851 | 6946 |
| P.071 | GOPENG | (PERAK) | 19515 | 20591 |
| P.074 | LUMUT | (PERAK) | 5440 | 6709 |
| P.076 | TELOK INTAN | (PERAK) | 6665 | 7796 |
| P.080 | RAUB | (PAHANG) | 1460 | 2412 |
| P.082 | INDERA MAHKOTA | (PAHANG) | 4435 | 5706 |
| P.083 | KUANTAN | (PAHANG) | 5872 | 6815 |
| P.088 | TEMERLOH | (PAHANG) | 10 | 1003 |
| P.094 | HULU SELANGOR | (SELANGOR) | 4817 | 6081 |
| P.096 | KUALA SELANGOR | (SELANGOR) | 1828 | 3018 |
| P.097 | SELAYANG | (SELANGOR) | 13620 | 15140 |
| P.098 | GOMBAK | (SELANGOR) | 9707 | 11508 |
| P.099 | AMPANG | (SELANGOR) | 9841 | 10996 |
| P.100 | PANDAN | (SELANGOR) | 8529 | 9707 |
| P.101 | HULU LANGAT | (SELANGOR) | 11439 | 13127 |
| P.102 | SERDANG | (SELANGOR) | 38532 | 40104 |
| P.103 | PUCHONG | (SELANGOR) | 24942 | 26490 |
| P.104 | KELANA JAYA | (SELANGOR) | 16686 | 18192 |
| P.105 | PETALING JAYA SELATAN | (SELANGOR) | 13125 | 14490 |
| P.106 | PETALING JAYA UTARA | (SELANGOR) | 40073 | 41036 |
| P.107 | SUBANG | (SELANGOR) | 21487 | 22842 |
| P.108 | SHAH ALAM | (SELANGOR) | 12138 | 13578 |
| P.109 | KAPAR | (SELANGOR) | 24999 | 26743 |
| P.110 | KLANG | (SELANGOR) | 27008 | 28160 |
| P.111 | KOTA RAJA | (SELANGOR) | 27765 | 29227 |
| P.112 | KUALA LANGAT | (SELANGOR) | 5797 | 7307 |
| P.114 | KEPONG | (W.P KUALA LUMPUR) | 43099 | 43748 |
| P.115 | BATU | (W.P KUALA LUMPUR) | 15544 | 16930 |
| P.116 | WANGSA MAJU | (W.P KUALA LUMPUR) | 4984 | 6101 |
| P.117 | SEGAMBUT | (W.P KUALA LUMPUR) | 16821 | 17825 |
| P.119 | TITIWANGSA | (W.P KUALA LUMPUR) | 2665 | 3685 |
| P.120 | BUKIT BINTANG | (W.P KUALA LUMPUR) | 20672 | 21341 |
| P.121 | LEMBAH PANTAI | (W.P KUALA LUMPUR) | 3460 | 4769 |
| P.122 | SEPUTEH | (W.P KUALA LUMPUR) | 55649 | 56392 |
| P.123 | CHERAS | (W.P KUALA LUMPUR) | 41297 | 42068 |
| P.124 | BANDAR TUN RAZAK | (W.P KUALA LUMPUR) | 9877 | 11148 |
| P.128 | SEREMBAN | (NEGERI SEMBILAN) | 12930 | 14511 |
| P.130 | RASAH | (NEGERI SEMBILAN) | 22464 | 23725 |
| P.132 | TELOK KEMANG | (NEGERI SEMBILAN) | 6057 | 7321 |
| P.137 | BUKIT KATIL | (MELAKA) | 8610 | 9954 |
| P.138 | KOTA MELAKA | (MELAKA) | 25408 | 26647 |
| P.140 | SEGAMAT | (JOHOR) | 516 | 1317 |
| P.142 | LABIS | (JOHOR) | 372 | 1142 |
| P.145 | BAKRI | (JOHOR) | 10172 | 11224 |
| P.152 | KLUANG | (JOHOR) | 6140 | 7539 |
| P.162 | GELANG PATAH | (JOHOR) | 5991 | 7283 |
| P.163 | KULAI | (JOHOR) | 701 | 1965 |
| P.172 | KOTA KINABALU | (SABAH) | 10220 | 10980 |
| P.174 | PENAMPANG | (SABAH) | 2 | 720 |
| P.186 | SANDAKAN | (SABAH) | 4466 | 5231 |
| P.195 | BANDAR KUCHING | (SARAWAK) | 22779 | 23586 |
| P.206 | TANJONG MANIS | (SARAWAK) | 1 | 382 |
| P.208 | SARIKEI | (SARAWAK) | 5704 | 6585 |
| P.211 | LANANG | (SARAWAK) | 4753 | 5746 |
| P.219 | MIRI | (SARAWAK) | 3552 | 4665 |
| P.221 | LIMBANG | (SARAWAK) | 3 | 289 |
Scenario 3
- Tsunami effect from 2008 retained
- Young Malays +5% swing to BN
- Young Chinese +20% swing to PR
- Chinese (other ages) +15% swing to PR
- Indians +5% swing to BN
Results
PR wins 97 seats.
BN wins 125 seats.
Seats won by PR
| Seat Code | Name | State | Min majority | Max majority |
| P.003 | ARAU | (PERLIS) | 4 | 729 |
| P.007 | PADANG TERAP | (KEDAH) | 318 | 1165 |
| P.008 | POKOK SENA | (KEDAH) | 8527 | 9891 |
| P.009 | ALOR STAR | (KEDAH) | 3775 | 4976 |
| P.010 | KUALA KEDAH | (KEDAH) | 11479 | 13024 |
| P.011 | PENDANG | (KEDAH) | 4610 | 6062 |
| P.012 | JERAI | (KEDAH) | 3095 | 4442 |
| P.013 | SIK | (KEDAH) | 797 | 1916 |
| P.014 | MERBOK | (KEDAH) | 1665 | 3056 |
| P.015 | SUNGAI PETANI | (KEDAH) | 12157 | 13727 |
| P.016 | BALING | (KEDAH) | 8726 | 10101 |
| P.017 | PADANG SERAI | (KEDAH) | 12276 | 13631 |
| P.018 | KULIM-BANDAR BAHARU | (KEDAH) | 5973 | 7198 |
| P.019 | TUMPAT | (KELANTAN) | 11507 | 13267 |
| P.020 | PENGKALAN CHEPA | (KELANTAN) | 12747 | 14084 |
| P.021 | KOTA BHARU | (KELANTAN) | 15910 | 17201 |
| P.022 | PASIR MAS | (KELANTAN) | 10228 | 11556 |
| P.023 | RANTAU PANJANG | (KELANTAN) | 4337 | 5502 |
| P.024 | KUBANG KERIAN | (KELANTAN) | 12009 | 13303 |
| P.025 | BACHOK | (KELANTAN) | 2348 | 3972 |
| P.026 | KETEREH | (KELANTAN) | 1 | 633 |
| P.027 | TANAH MERAH | (KELANTAN) | 1787 | 2843 |
| P.028 | PASIR PUTEH | (KELANTAN) | 3674 | 5151 |
| P.029 | MACHANG | (KELANTAN) | 1208 | 2558 |
| P.031 | KUALA KRAI | (KELANTAN) | 5522 | 6817 |
| P.036 | KUALA TERENGGANU | (TERENGGANU) | 7 | 1019 |
| P.037 | MARANG | (TERENGGANU) | 1759 | 3227 |
| P.043 | BAGAN | (PULAU PINANG) | 31851 | 32765 |
| P.044 | PERMATANG PAUH | (PULAU PINANG) | 16236 | 17595 |
| P.045 | BUKIT MERTAJAM | (PULAU PINANG) | 39571 | 40504 |
| P.046 | BATU KAWAN | (PULAU PINANG) | 15113 | 16143 |
| P.047 | NIBONG TEBAL | (PULAU PINANG) | 4812 | 5779 |
| P.048 | BUKIT BENDERA | (PULAU PINANG) | 28414 | 29347 |
| P.049 | TANJONG | (PULAU PINANG) | 27428 | 28294 |
| P.050 | JELUTONG | (PULAU PINANG) | 27663 | 28921 |
| P.051 | BUKIT GELUGOR | (PULAU PINANG) | 39538 | 40673 |
| P.052 | BAYAN BARU | (PULAU PINANG) | 18567 | 19693 |
| P.053 | BALIK PULAU | (PULAU PINANG) | 3686 | 4734 |
| P.057 | PARIT BUNTAR | (PERAK) | 10226 | 11310 |
| P.058 | BAGAN SERAI | (PERAK) | 3991 | 5115 |
| P.059 | BUKIT GANTANG | (PERAK) | 4182 | 5406 |
| P.060 | TAIPING | (PERAK) | 16502 | 17579 |
| P.062 | SUNGAI SIPUT | (PERAK) | 4264 | 5317 |
| P.064 | IPOH TIMOR | (PERAK) | 34806 | 36261 |
| P.065 | IPOH BARAT | (PERAK) | 24919 | 25928 |
| P.066 | BATU GAJAH | (PERAK) | 38447 | 39564 |
| P.068 | BERUAS | (PERAK) | 5759 | 6667 |
| P.070 | KAMPAR | (PERAK) | 3271 | 4418 |
| P.071 | GOPENG | (PERAK) | 16230 | 17753 |
| P.074 | LUMUT | (PERAK) | 3557 | 4998 |
| P.076 | TELOK INTAN | (PERAK) | 4324 | 5498 |
| P.080 | RAUB | (PAHANG) | 24 | 942 |
| P.082 | INDERA MAHKOTA | (PAHANG) | 3354 | 4567 |
| P.083 | KUANTAN | (PAHANG) | 4800 | 5950 |
| P.094 | HULU SELANGOR | (SELANGOR) | 2667 | 4065 |
| P.096 | KUALA SELANGOR | (SELANGOR) | 559 | 1767 |
| P.097 | SELAYANG | (SELANGOR) | 9548 | 11132 |
| P.098 | GOMBAK | (SELANGOR) | 8274 | 10011 |
| P.099 | AMPANG | (SELANGOR) | 7520 | 8970 |
| P.100 | PANDAN | (SELANGOR) | 5524 | 6890 |
| P.101 | HULU LANGAT | (SELANGOR) | 7629 | 9459 |
| P.102 | SERDANG | (SELANGOR) | 35094 | 36459 |
| P.103 | PUCHONG | (SELANGOR) | 21156 | 22509 |
| P.104 | KELANA JAYA | (SELANGOR) | 12478 | 13935 |
| P.105 | PETALING JAYA SELATAN | (SELANGOR) | 10102 | 11396 |
| P.106 | PETALING JAYA UTARA | (SELANGOR) | 35333 | 36571 |
| P.107 | SUBANG | (SELANGOR) | 17450 | 19060 |
| P.108 | SHAH ALAM | (SELANGOR) | 10669 | 12175 |
| P.109 | KAPAR | (SELANGOR) | 20614 | 22289 |
| P.110 | KLANG | (SELANGOR) | 23379 | 24537 |
| P.111 | KOTA RAJA | (SELANGOR) | 23434 | 25217 |
| P.112 | KUALA LANGAT | (SELANGOR) | 3427 | 5007 |
| P.114 | KEPONG | (W.P KUALA LUMPUR) | 39349 | 40223 |
| P.115 | BATU | (W.P KUALA LUMPUR) | 12998 | 14318 |
| P.116 | WANGSA MAJU | (W.P KUALA LUMPUR) | 3223 | 4485 |
| P.117 | SEGAMBUT | (W.P KUALA LUMPUR) | 14097 | 15257 |
| P.119 | TITIWANGSA | (W.P KUALA LUMPUR) | 1817 | 2912 |
| P.120 | BUKIT BINTANG | (W.P KUALA LUMPUR) | 18780 | 19558 |
| P.121 | LEMBAH PANTAI | (W.P KUALA LUMPUR) | 1402 | 2911 |
| P.122 | SEPUTEH | (W.P KUALA LUMPUR) | 53787 | 54586 |
| P.123 | CHERAS | (W.P KUALA LUMPUR) | 39400 | 40365 |
| P.124 | BANDAR TUN RAZAK | (W.P KUALA LUMPUR) | 7441 | 9057 |
| P.128 | SEREMBAN | (NEGERI SEMBILAN) | 9559 | 11061 |
| P.130 | RASAH | (NEGERI SEMBILAN) | 18101 | 19666 |
| P.132 | TELOK KEMANG | (NEGERI SEMBILAN) | 3952 | 5052 |
| P.137 | BUKIT KATIL | (MELAKA) | 5732 | 7158 |
| P.138 | KOTA MELAKA | (MELAKA) | 21981 | 23370 |
| P.145 | BAKRI | (JOHOR) | 7875 | 8949 |
| P.152 | KLUANG | (JOHOR) | 2810 | 3928 |
| P.162 | GELANG PATAH | (JOHOR) | 1092 | 2749 |
| P.172 | KOTA KINABALU | (SABAH) | 7355 | 8155 |
| P.186 | SANDAKAN | (SABAH) | 3174 | 4014 |
| P.195 | BANDAR KUCHING | (SARAWAK) | 19768 | 20661 |
| P.208 | SARIKEI | (SARAWAK) | 3964 | 4781 |
| P.211 | LANANG | (SARAWAK) | 2075 | 3112 |
| P.219 | MIRI | (SARAWAK) | 1042 | 2211 |
| P.221 | LIMBANG | (SARAWAK) | 1 | 147 |
Scenario 4
- Tsunami effect from 2008 retained
- Chinese +15% swing to PR
- Young voters (non-Chinese) +10% swing to PR
Results
PR wins 106 seats.
BN wins 116 seats.
Seats won by PR
| Seat Code | Name | State | Min majority | Max majority |
| P.003 | ARAU | (PERLIS) | 652 | 1586 |
| P.007 | PADANG TERAP | (KEDAH) | 1315 | 2513 |
| P.008 | POKOK SENA | (KEDAH) | 10245 | 11820 |
| P.009 | ALOR STAR | (KEDAH) | 4889 | 6303 |
| P.010 | KUALA KEDAH | (KEDAH) | 13395 | 14716 |
| P.011 | PENDANG | (KEDAH) | 6355 | 7769 |
| P.012 | JERAI | (KEDAH) | 5033 | 6222 |
| P.013 | SIK | (KEDAH) | 2275 | 3256 |
| P.014 | MERBOK | (KEDAH) | 4398 | 5698 |
| P.015 | SUNGAI PETANI | (KEDAH) | 14714 | 15720 |
| P.016 | BALING | (KEDAH) | 11615 | 12970 |
| P.017 | PADANG SERAI | (KEDAH) | 15000 | 16269 |
| P.018 | KULIM-BANDAR BAHARU | (KEDAH) | 7750 | 8804 |
| P.019 | TUMPAT | (KELANTAN) | 14772 | 16086 |
| P.020 | PENGKALAN CHEPA | (KELANTAN) | 14831 | 15899 |
| P.021 | KOTA BHARU | (KELANTAN) | 17991 | 19513 |
| P.022 | PASIR MAS | (KELANTAN) | 12410 | 13660 |
| P.023 | RANTAU PANJANG | (KELANTAN) | 5881 | 7001 |
| P.024 | KUBANG KERIAN | (KELANTAN) | 14235 | 15459 |
| P.025 | BACHOK | (KELANTAN) | 5077 | 6708 |
| P.026 | KETEREH | (KELANTAN) | 1051 | 2300 |
| P.027 | TANAH MERAH | (KELANTAN) | 3912 | 5087 |
| P.028 | PASIR PUTEH | (KELANTAN) | 6212 | 7674 |
| P.029 | MACHANG | (KELANTAN) | 3172 | 4399 |
| P.031 | KUALA KRAI | (KELANTAN) | 7858 | 8985 |
| P.035 | KUALA NERUS | (TERENGGANU) | 137 | 1341 |
| P.036 | KUALA TERENGGANU | (TERENGGANU) | 2378 | 4031 |
| P.037 | MARANG | (TERENGGANU) | 4993 | 6506 |
| P.043 | BAGAN | (PULAU PINANG) | 32860 | 33779 |
| P.044 | PERMATANG PAUH | (PULAU PINANG) | 17869 | 19210 |
| P.045 | BUKIT MERTAJAM | (PULAU PINANG) | 40664 | 41579 |
| P.046 | BATU KAWAN | (PULAU PINANG) | 16528 | 17432 |
| P.047 | NIBONG TEBAL | (PULAU PINANG) | 6410 | 7432 |
| P.048 | BUKIT BENDERA | (PULAU PINANG) | 28927 | 29986 |
| P.049 | TANJONG | (PULAU PINANG) | 27779 | 28460 |
| P.050 | JELUTONG | (PULAU PINANG) | 28655 | 29401 |
| P.051 | BUKIT GELUGOR | (PULAU PINANG) | 40349 | 41324 |
| P.052 | BAYAN BARU | (PULAU PINANG) | 19669 | 21009 |
| P.053 | BALIK PULAU | (PULAU PINANG) | 4657 | 5474 |
| P.057 | PARIT BUNTAR | (PERAK) | 11150 | 12128 |
| P.058 | BAGAN SERAI | (PERAK) | 5282 | 6541 |
| P.059 | BUKIT GANTANG | (PERAK) | 5882 | 7170 |
| P.060 | TAIPING | (PERAK) | 18008 | 18993 |
| P.062 | SUNGAI SIPUT | (PERAK) | 5467 | 6370 |
| P.064 | IPOH TIMOR | (PERAK) | 35665 | 36445 |
| P.065 | IPOH BARAT | (PERAK) | 26513 | 27696 |
| P.066 | BATU GAJAH | (PERAK) | 39588 | 40725 |
| P.067 | KUALA KANGSAR | (PERAK) | 17 | 838 |
| P.068 | BERUAS | (PERAK) | 6482 | 7500 |
| P.070 | KAMPAR | (PERAK) | 4079 | 5058 |
| P.071 | GOPENG | (PERAK) | 18079 | 19586 |
| P.074 | LUMUT | (PERAK) | 4986 | 6696 |
| P.076 | TELOK INTAN | (PERAK) | 5802 | 6812 |
| P.080 | RAUB | (PAHANG) | 929 | 1951 |
| P.081 | JERANTUT | (PAHANG) | 4 | 728 |
| P.082 | INDERA MAHKOTA | (PAHANG) | 4654 | 5860 |
| P.083 | KUANTAN | (PAHANG) | 5692 | 6944 |
| P.088 | TEMERLOH | (PAHANG) | 242 | 1239 |
| P.092 | SABAK BERNAM | (SELANGOR) | 4 | 748 |
| P.094 | HULU SELANGOR | (SELANGOR) | 5320 | 6612 |
| P.096 | KUALA SELANGOR | (SELANGOR) | 2711 | 4026 |
| P.097 | SELAYANG | (SELANGOR) | 12366 | 13895 |
| P.098 | GOMBAK | (SELANGOR) | 11423 | 13215 |
| P.099 | AMPANG | (SELANGOR) | 9248 | 10624 |
| P.100 | PANDAN | (SELANGOR) | 6458 | 8097 |
| P.101 | HULU LANGAT | (SELANGOR) | 10798 | 12391 |
| P.102 | SERDANG | (SELANGOR) | 37875 | 39183 |
| P.103 | PUCHONG | (SELANGOR) | 23360 | 24859 |
| P.104 | KELANA JAYA | (SELANGOR) | 14954 | 16460 |
| P.105 | PETALING JAYA SELATAN | (SELANGOR) | 11896 | 13086 |
| P.106 | PETALING JAYA UTARA | (SELANGOR) | 35741 | 36883 |
| P.107 | SUBANG | (SELANGOR) | 20482 | 22265 |
| P.108 | SHAH ALAM | (SELANGOR) | 13600 | 15014 |
| P.109 | KAPAR | (SELANGOR) | 24464 | 26124 |
| P.110 | KLANG | (SELANGOR) | 25502 | 27020 |
| P.111 | KOTA RAJA | (SELANGOR) | 27568 | 29313 |
| P.112 | KUALA LANGAT | (SELANGOR) | 5919 | 7380 |
| P.113 | SEPANG | (SELANGOR) | 1 | 402 |
| P.114 | KEPONG | (W.P KUALA LUMPUR) | 39668 | 40408 |
| P.115 | BATU | (W.P KUALA LUMPUR) | 14760 | 16042 |
| P.116 | WANGSA MAJU | (W.P KUALA LUMPUR) | 4547 | 5733 |
| P.117 | SEGAMBUT | (W.P KUALA LUMPUR) | 15068 | 16021 |
| P.119 | TITIWANGSA | (W.P KUALA LUMPUR) | 2805 | 4113 |
| P.120 | BUKIT BINTANG | (W.P KUALA LUMPUR) | 19051 | 19821 |
| P.121 | LEMBAH PANTAI | (W.P KUALA LUMPUR) | 3496 | 4537 |
| P.122 | SEPUTEH | (W.P KUALA LUMPUR) | 54336 | 55189 |
| P.123 | CHERAS | (W.P KUALA LUMPUR) | 39920 | 40778 |
| P.124 | BANDAR TUN RAZAK | (W.P KUALA LUMPUR) | 8804 | 10453 |
| P.128 | SEREMBAN | (NEGERI SEMBILAN) | 11829 | 13265 |
| P.130 | RASAH | (NEGERI SEMBILAN) | 20491 | 21587 |
| P.132 | TELOK KEMANG | (NEGERI SEMBILAN) | 5683 | 6855 |
| P.137 | BUKIT KATIL | (MELAKA) | 7592 | 9137 |
| P.138 | KOTA MELAKA | (MELAKA) | 23122 | 24278 |
| P.140 | SEGAMAT | (JOHOR) | 17 | 717 |
| P.142 | LABIS | (JOHOR) | 2 | 367 |
| P.145 | BAKRI | (JOHOR) | 8474 | 9611 |
| P.152 | KLUANG | (JOHOR) | 4168 | 5482 |
| P.162 | GELANG PATAH | (JOHOR) | 2890 | 4370 |
| P.172 | KOTA KINABALU | (SABAH) | 7523 | 8263 |
| P.186 | SANDAKAN | (SABAH) | 3686 | 4340 |
| P.195 | BANDAR KUCHING | (SARAWAK) | 19681 | 20528 |
| P.206 | TANJONG MANIS | (SARAWAK) | 55 | 543 |
| P.208 | SARIKEI | (SARAWAK) | 3962 | 4796 |
| P.211 | LANANG | (SARAWAK) | 1991 | 3035 |
| P.219 | MIRI | (SARAWAK) | 1334 | 2422 |
| P.221 | LIMBANG | (SARAWAK) | 4 | 400 |
Scenario 5
- Tsunami effect from 2008 retained
- Young Malays +5% swing to BN
- Young Chinese +40% swing to PR
- Chinese (other ages) +20% swing to PR
- Indians +5% swing to BN
Results
PR wins 105 seats.
BN wins 117 seats.
Seats won by PR
| Seat Code | Name | State | Min majority | Max majority |
| P.003 | ARAU | (PERLIS) | 172 | 1009 |
| P.007 | PADANG TERAP | (KEDAH) | 210 | 1264 |
| P.008 | POKOK SENA | (KEDAH) | 9774 | 11010 |
| P.009 | ALOR STAR | (KEDAH) | 5869 | 6863 |
| P.010 | KUALA KEDAH | (KEDAH) | 13068 | 14703 |
| P.011 | PENDANG | (KEDAH) | 4958 | 6176 |
| P.012 | JERAI | (KEDAH) | 4131 | 5347 |
| P.013 | SIK | (KEDAH) | 1002 | 1879 |
| P.014 | MERBOK | (KEDAH) | 2972 | 4581 |
| P.015 | SUNGAI PETANI | (KEDAH) | 14277 | 15653 |
| P.016 | BALING | (KEDAH) | 9147 | 10787 |
| P.017 | PADANG SERAI | (KEDAH) | 13722 | 14921 |
| P.018 | KULIM-BANDAR BAHARU | (KEDAH) | 6879 | 7984 |
| P.019 | TUMPAT | (KELANTAN) | 12132 | 13653 |
| P.020 | PENGKALAN CHEPA | (KELANTAN) | 12817 | 14163 |
| P.021 | KOTA BHARU | (KELANTAN) | 17122 | 18396 |
| P.022 | PASIR MAS | (KELANTAN) | 10565 | 11933 |
| P.023 | RANTAU PANJANG | (KELANTAN) | 4478 | 5667 |
| P.024 | KUBANG KERIAN | (KELANTAN) | 12266 | 13506 |
| P.025 | BACHOK | (KELANTAN) | 2596 | 4139 |
| P.026 | KETEREH | (KELANTAN) | 4 | 504 |
| P.027 | TANAH MERAH | (KELANTAN) | 1907 | 3250 |
| P.028 | PASIR PUTEH | (KELANTAN) | 3942 | 5109 |
| P.029 | MACHANG | (KELANTAN) | 1423 | 2580 |
| P.031 | KUALA KRAI | (KELANTAN) | 5687 | 7107 |
| P.036 | KUALA TERENGGANU | (TERENGGANU) | 743 | 2125 |
| P.037 | MARANG | (TERENGGANU) | 2153 | 3470 |
| P.043 | BAGAN | (PULAU PINANG) | 33790 | 34936 |
| P.044 | PERMATANG PAUH | (PULAU PINANG) | 17512 | 18773 |
| P.045 | BUKIT MERTAJAM | (PULAU PINANG) | 41300 | 42180 |
| P.046 | BATU KAWAN | (PULAU PINANG) | 17848 | 18759 |
| P.047 | NIBONG TEBAL | (PULAU PINANG) | 6353 | 7645 |
| P.048 | BUKIT BENDERA | (PULAU PINANG) | 31450 | 32639 |
| P.049 | TANJONG | (PULAU PINANG) | 29408 | 30022 |
| P.050 | JELUTONG | (PULAU PINANG) | 30029 | 30912 |
| P.051 | BUKIT GELUGOR | (PULAU PINANG) | 42052 | 43124 |
| P.052 | BAYAN BARU | (PULAU PINANG) | 21839 | 22990 |
| P.053 | BALIK PULAU | (PULAU PINANG) | 4852 | 6016 |
| P.057 | PARIT BUNTAR | (PERAK) | 11288 | 12548 |
| P.058 | BAGAN SERAI | (PERAK) | 4632 | 5637 |
| P.059 | BUKIT GANTANG | (PERAK) | 5756 | 7027 |
| P.060 | TAIPING | (PERAK) | 18238 | 19179 |
| P.062 | SUNGAI SIPUT | (PERAK) | 5835 | 6688 |
| P.064 | IPOH TIMOR | (PERAK) | 37970 | 38943 |
| P.065 | IPOH BARAT | (PERAK) | 28241 | 29188 |
| P.066 | BATU GAJAH | (PERAK) | 41441 | 42650 |
| P.067 | KUALA KANGSAR | (PERAK) | 4 | 772 |
| P.068 | BERUAS | (PERAK) | 7775 | 8558 |
| P.070 | KAMPAR | (PERAK) | 6104 | 6983 |
| P.071 | GOPENG | (PERAK) | 19723 | 20949 |
| P.074 | LUMUT | (PERAK) | 5992 | 7181 |
| P.076 | TELOK INTAN | (PERAK) | 6317 | 7384 |
| P.080 | RAUB | (PAHANG) | 1752 | 2827 |
| P.081 | JERANTUT | (PAHANG) | 40 | 242 |
| P.082 | INDERA MAHKOTA | (PAHANG) | 5019 | 6122 |
| P.083 | KUANTAN | (PAHANG) | 6216 | 7502 |
| P.088 | TEMERLOH | (PAHANG) | 96 | 1198 |
| P.094 | HULU SELANGOR | (SELANGOR) | 4551 | 5658 |
| P.096 | KUALA SELANGOR | (SELANGOR) | 1326 | 2368 |
| P.097 | SELAYANG | (SELANGOR) | 13215 | 14708 |
| P.098 | GOMBAK | (SELANGOR) | 9760 | 11610 |
| P.099 | AMPANG | (SELANGOR) | 9794 | 11416 |
| P.100 | PANDAN | (SELANGOR) | 9315 | 10527 |
| P.101 | HULU LANGAT | (SELANGOR) | 11615 | 13199 |
| P.102 | SERDANG | (SELANGOR) | 38608 | 40014 |
| P.103 | PUCHONG | (SELANGOR) | 24289 | 25631 |
| P.104 | KELANA JAYA | (SELANGOR) | 16759 | 18169 |
| P.105 | PETALING JAYA SELATAN | (SELANGOR) | 12608 | 14029 |
| P.106 | PETALING JAYA UTARA | (SELANGOR) | 40130 | 40884 |
| P.107 | SUBANG | (SELANGOR) | 21627 | 22952 |
| P.108 | SHAH ALAM | (SELANGOR) | 12083 | 13368 |
| P.109 | KAPAR | (SELANGOR) | 24373 | 26175 |
| P.110 | KLANG | (SELANGOR) | 25914 | 27130 |
| P.111 | KOTA RAJA | (SELANGOR) | 26278 | 27487 |
| P.112 | KUALA LANGAT | (SELANGOR) | 5418 | 6839 |
| P.114 | KEPONG | (W.P KUALA LUMPUR) | 42833 | 43516 |
| P.115 | BATU | (W.P KUALA LUMPUR) | 15312 | 16397 |
| P.116 | WANGSA MAJU | (W.P KUALA LUMPUR) | 5384 | 6583 |
| P.117 | SEGAMBUT | (W.P KUALA LUMPUR) | 16080 | 17221 |
| P.119 | TITIWANGSA | (W.P KUALA LUMPUR) | 2564 | 3608 |
| P.120 | BUKIT BINTANG | (W.P KUALA LUMPUR) | 20247 | 21053 |
| P.121 | LEMBAH PANTAI | (W.P KUALA LUMPUR) | 2694 | 4110 |
| P.122 | SEPUTEH | (W.P KUALA LUMPUR) | 55339 | 56254 |
| P.123 | CHERAS | (W.P KUALA LUMPUR) | 40870 | 41736 |
| P.124 | BANDAR TUN RAZAK | (W.P KUALA LUMPUR) | 10486 | 11765 |
| P.128 | SEREMBAN | (NEGERI SEMBILAN) | 12621 | 13761 |
| P.130 | RASAH | (NEGERI SEMBILAN) | 21535 | 22520 |
| P.132 | TELOK KEMANG | (NEGERI SEMBILAN) | 5971 | 7276 |
| P.137 | BUKIT KATIL | (MELAKA) | 9664 | 10942 |
| P.138 | KOTA MELAKA | (MELAKA) | 25848 | 26944 |
| P.140 | SEGAMAT | (JOHOR) | 493 | 1288 |
| P.142 | LABIS | (JOHOR) | 294 | 1015 |
| P.145 | BAKRI | (JOHOR) | 10957 | 11806 |
| P.152 | KLUANG | (JOHOR) | 6571 | 7806 |
| P.162 | GELANG PATAH | (JOHOR) | 6249 | 7899 |
| P.163 | KULAI | (JOHOR) | 1095 | 2355 |
| P.172 | KOTA KINABALU | (SABAH) | 10186 | 11052 |
| P.174 | PENAMPANG | (SABAH) | 14 | 856 |
| P.186 | SANDAKAN | (SABAH) | 4567 | 5266 |
| P.195 | BANDAR KUCHING | (SARAWAK) | 22984 | 23833 |
| P.206 | TANJONG MANIS | (SARAWAK) | 4 | 57 |
| P.208 | SARIKEI | (SARAWAK) | 6092 | 6885 |
| P.211 | LANANG | (SARAWAK) | 5377 | 6383 |
| P.219 | MIRI | (SARAWAK) | 4011 | 5106 |
| P.221 | LIMBANG | (SARAWAK) | 1 | 380 |
