1. Introduction

Melaka held its state elections on 20^th November 2021. The last state election was held during the 14^th General Elections on May 9^th 2018. In 2021, Barisan Nasional (BN) won 28 seats, Pakatan Harapan (PH) won 5 seats and Perikatan Nasional (PN) won 2 seats.

This report provides a brief analysis of the state election results based on share of vote (SOV). Unlike our previous report, Analysis of Federal Election Results and the Swing in Support by Race, Age Group and Level of Urban Development in Melaka in GE14 , we cannot provide a detailed analysis of the swing in support from voters by ethnic group, age group and urban development category. This would require access to the electoral roll used in this state election along with all the polling lane results.

If you find our analysis work useful and would like to hire us for electoral analysis in preparation for the next General Election, please contact us at admin@politweet.org

This report divided into the following chapters:

1. Introduction
2. List of Acronyms
3. Demographics of the Melaka Electorate (GE14)
4. An Overview of Melaka State 2021 Results
5. The Swing in Support
6. The Urban-Rural Divide
7. Voter Turnout Analysis
8. Final Observations

You can download the PDF version of this report at the following link:

 

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1iWHlXfPH8hkdYha7zuRGBDWZMxUirRc3/view?usp=sharing

Update 1 (December 11^th 2021):

Added comparison between GE13 and GE14 turnout rates in Chapter 7

 

2. List of Acronyms

The following table shows a list of acronyms used in this document.

Acronym	Full name
PR	Pakatan Rakyat
PH	Pakatan Harapan
BN	Barisan Nasional
UMNO	United Malays National Organisation
GERAKAN	Parti Gerakan Rakyat Malaysia (also known as PGRM)
MCA	Malaysian Chinese Association
MIC	Malaysian Indian Congress
PBB	Parti Pesaka Bumiputra Bersatu Sarawak
PKR	Parti Keadilan Rakyat
DAP	Democratic Action Party
AMANAH	Parti Amanah Negara
PAS	Parti Islam Se-Malaysia
PPBM	Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia
WARISAN	Parti Warisan Sabah
IND	Independents and other political parties
PN	Perikatan Nasional
GE13	13th General Election (May 5th 2013)
GE14	14th General Election (May 9th 2018)

3. Demographics of the Melaka Electorate (GE14)

The statistics in this chapter are based on the GE14 electoral roll and election results. Between GE14 and the 2021 State election the number of voters had a nett increase of 533 people, so the statistics should still be valid for 2021.

3.1 Population by Ethnic Group

In 2021 there were 495,195 registered voters on the electoral roll. In GE14 there were 494,662 registered voters on the electoral roll. The chart below shows how GE14 voters were divided by ethnic group.

The table below shows the data for the chart along with a comparison with statistics from the GE13 roll.

Ethnic Group	GE13	(%)	GE14	(%)	Growth (%)
Malay	256,156	58.34	301,835	61.02	+17.83
Chinese	148,864	33.91	154,443	31.22	+3.75
Indian	28,135	6.41	31,247	6.32	+11.06
Others	3,135	0.71	4,049	0.82	+29.16
Bumiputera Sabah	1,112	0.25	1,311	0.27	+17.90
Bumiputera Sarawak	1,638	0.37	1,777	0.36	+8.50
Total	439,040	100.00	494,662	100.00	+12.67

 

Malay voters are the largest ethnic group, and had the highest growth rate. The percentage of Chinese and Indian voters has reduced since GE13. Bumiputera voters (including Malays) make up 61.65% of the electorate.

Out of 494,662 registered voters in GE14, 479,379 voters (97%) are regular voters (pengundi biasa).

The chart and table below show how regular voters were divided by ethnic group. This group of voters is the focus of our analysis of election results.

Ethnic Group	GE14	(%)
Malay	288,909	60.27
Chinese	154,299	32.19
Indian	31,032	6.47
Others	3,886	0.81
Bumiputera Sabah	728	0.15
Bumiputera Sarawak	525	0.11
Total	479,379	100.00

 

3.2 Population by Age Group

The chart below shows the distribution of total voters by age group:

The table below shows the data for the above chart, together with a breakdown by race:

Ethnic Group/ Age Group	21-30	31-40	41-50	51-60	61-70	71+
Malay	78,823	75,211	55,257	47,374	29,019	16,151
Chinese	20,788	29,960	30,926	30,622	24,076	18,071
Indian	5,617	6,819	6,516	6,283	4,012	2,000
Others	1,037	864	682	741	441	284
Bumiputera Sabah	377	521	256	116	38	3
Bumiputera Sarawak	541	767	331	98	35	5
Total	107,183	114,142	93,968	85,234	57,621	36,514

 

The following chart shows the number of voters by age group and ethnic group.

The age group with the largest number of voters for each ethnic group is:

• 21-30 years old for Malays
• 31-40 years old for Indians, Bumiputera Sabah and Bumiputera Sarawak
• 41-50 years old for Chinese

The table below shows the distribution of ethnic groups within each age group, as a percentage of the age group.

Ethnic Group/ Age Group	21-30	31-40	41-50	51-60	61-70	71+
Malay	73.54	65.89	58.80	55.58	50.36	44.23
Chinese	19.39	26.25	32.91	35.93	41.78	49.49
Indian	5.24	5.97	6.93	7.37	6.96	5.48
Others	0.97	0.76	0.73	0.87	0.77	0.78
Bumiputera Sabah	0.35	0.46	0.27	0.14	0.07	0.01
Bumiputera Sarawak	0.50	0.67	0.35	0.11	0.06	0.01
Total	21.67	23.07	19.00	17.23	11.65	7.38

 

Malay voters make up the largest ethnic group in every age group other than those voters who are 71 years old and above, where they make up 44.23% of the electorate. The margin between Malays and Chinese (the next largest ethnic group) is much larger for 21-30 year-olds and 31-40 year-olds compared to the older age groups. To put it in perspective, the population ratio for Malay:Chinese voters is:

• 8:1 for 21-30 year-olds
• 5:1 for 31-40 year-olds
• 5:1 for 41-50 year-olds
• 2:1 for 51-60 year-olds

This is an expected trend due to the high population growth rates for the Malay population. There are nearly 4 Malay voters for every Chinese voter within the 21-30 year-old age group.

 

3.3 Population by Urban Development Category

We classified Parliament seats by the level of urban development in 2013 and assigned the following categories to each seat: Rural, Semi-Urban and Urban. The chart and table below shows how they are distributed:

 

Urban Development Category	Parliament Seats	Voters	Voters (%)
Rural	3	195,237	39.47
Semi-Urban	1	83,213	16.82
Urban	2	21,6212	43.71
Total	6	494,662	100.00

 

The charts below show the breakdown by ethnic group for each urban development category.

Statistics for the above charts:

Urban Seats

Ethnic Group	Voters	(%)
Malay	103,206	47.73
Chinese	100,244	46.36
Indian	10,167	4.70
Others	2,065	0.96
Bumiputera Sabah	290	0.13
Bumiputera Sarawak	240	0.11
Total	216,212	100.00

 

Semi-Urban Seats

Ethnic Group	Voters	(%)
Malay	59,066	70.98
Chinese	18,376	22.08
Indian	2,937	3.53
Others	606	0.73
Bumiputera Sabah	860	1.03
Bumiputera Sarawak	1,368	1.64
Total	83,213	100.00

 

Rural Seats

Ethnic Group	Voters	(%)
Malay	139,563	71.48
Chinese	35,823	18.35
Indian	18,143	9.29
Others	1,378	0.71
Bumiputera Sabah	161	0.08
Bumiputera Sarawak	169	0.09
Total	195,237	100.00

 

The table below shows how voters are distributed by urban development category for each ethnic group.

Urban Development Category	Malay	Chinese	Indian	Bumiputera Sabah	Bumiputera Sarawak	Others
Rural	139,563	35,823	18,143	161	169	1,378
Semi-Urban	59,066	18,376	2,937	860	1,368	606
Urban	103,206	100,244	10,167	290	240	2,065
Total	301,835	154,443	31,247	1,311	1,777	4,049

 

The chart below shows how voters of each ethnic group are distributed by urban development category, as a percentage of each ethnic group.

 

Ethnic Group/ Urban Dev. Category	Voters	Rural (%)	Semi-Urban (%)	Urban (%)
Malay	301,835	46.24	19.57	34.19
Chinese	154,443	23.19	11.90	64.91
Indian	31,247	58.06	9.40	32.54
Bumiputera Sabah	1,311	12.28	65.60	22.12
Bumiputera Sarawak	1,777	9.51	76.98	13.51
Others	4,049	34.03	14.97	51.00

 

Voters are almost evenly split between Rural seats (39.47% of voters) and Urban seats (43.71% of voters).

The majority of Chinese voters are in Urban seats while the majority of Malay voters and Indian voters are in Rural seats.

 

3.4 Statistics for Parliament Seats

There are 6 Parliament seats in Melaka. The tables below list the statistics for voters in each seat.

Distribution of Voters by Ethnic Group

Distribution of Voters by Age Group

3.5 Statistics for State Seats

There are 28 State seats in Melaka. The tables below list the statistics for voters in each seat. Urban development classification is based on satellite maps of Parliament seats, not State seats, so there will be some inaccuracies.

Distribution of Voters by Ethnic Group (GE14)

Distribution of Voters by Age Group (GE14)

4. An Overview of Melaka State 2021 Results

4.1 Summary of State Election Results

A change in the number of votes and SOV is influenced by the number of seats contested, voter turnout and the overall growth of the electorate. This is important to keep in mind when making comparisons for component parties.

For example:

• DAP contested the same 8 seats in both elections and won 38.20% less votes and had a drop in SOV of 4.86 points. It is fair to say they lost significant support from their GE14 base – either their voters did not turn out to vote or they switched to other parties.
• PKR contested in 11 seats (3 additional seats compared to GE14), but won 33.23% less votes and had a drop in SOV of 1.43 points. Out of these 11 seats, 7 were previously contested under PKR. So, we cannot make the same comparison that we did for DAP.
• PAS only contested 8 seats in 2021 compared to 24 seats in GE14. They also contested under the PN logo in 2021.
• A better comparison of PAS’ performance would be to compare the PN statistics from 2021 with the PAS statistics from GE14. PAS as a standalone party in GE14 and PN as a new coalition in 2021 each had an appeal as a ‘third force’ option for voters looking to reject BN and PH. PAS is also a component party of PN, so it is possible that their previous voters from GE14 continued to show support for PAS by voting for PN.
• Alternatively, the PN statistics could be compared with the combined PPBM and PAS statistics from GE14. However, because PPBM contested under the PKR logo in GE14 it would not be a fair comparison.
• This is why our approach to analysis is focused more on coalition performance rather than individual parties.

4.2 Statistics Based on Seats Won

Distribution of State Seats Won by Party/Coalition

 

Party/Coalition	Seats Won	(%)
BN	21	75.00
PN	2	7.14
PH	5	17.86
IND/Others	0	0.00
Total	28	100.00

 

Distribution of State Seats Won by Ethnic Majority

 

Majority Race	BN	PN	PH	Independent / Other Parties	Total
Malay	20	2	1	0	23
Chinese	0	0	4	0	4
Mixed	1	0	0	0	1
Total	21	2	5	0	28

4.3 Statistics Based on The Share of Vote 

Distribution of Share of Votes by Party/Coalition

 

Party/Coalition	Votes	(%)
BN	122,741	38.39
PN	77,731	24.31
PH	114,457	35.80
IND/Others	4,760	1.49
Total	319,689	100.00

 

We can break down this data further to see the distribution of votes for component parties. The chart below shows the breakdown for total votes.

 

Party	Seats Contested	Total Votes	(%)
BN	28	122,741	38.39
PAS	8	22,252	6.96
PPBM	15	46,688	14.60
GERAKAN	5	8,791	2.75
DAP	8	61,577	19.26
PKR	11	28,821	9.02
AMANAH	9	24,059	7.53
IND/Others	17	4,760	1.49
Total		319,689	100.00

 

4.4 Results by State Seat (GE14)

Number of Votes Won by Seat

The majority is calculated as the winning party’s vote total less the runner-up’s vote total.

Share of Votes Won by Seat

The number of total votes is shown in addition to the number of total registered voters.

BN won 13 seats, out of which:

• 2 seats were won with majorities of <500 votes
• 4 seats were won with majorities between 501 – 999 votes
• 5 seats were won with at least 50% SOV

PH won 15 seats, out of which:

• 1 seat was won with a majority of <500 votes
• 2 seats were won with majorities between 501 – 999 votes
• 9 seats were won with at least 50% SOV

 

4.5 Results by State Seat (2021)

Number of Votes Won by Seat

The majority is calculated as the winning party’s vote total less the runner-up’s vote total.

Share of Votes Won by Seat

The number of total votes is shown in addition to the number of total registered voters.

4.6 Comparison of Results by State Seat (2021 vs GE14)

Comparing the 2021 results with GE14:

• 5 seats were won with majorities of <500 votes, up from 3 seats in GE14
• 8 seats were won with majorities between 501 – 999 votes, up from 6 seats in GE14
• 11 seats were won with at least 50% SOV, down from 14 seats in GE14
• An increase of seats won with smaller majorities or a decrease of seats won with at least 50% SOV means that more seats that will be vulnerable in the next election
• Independents (and other, smaller parties) won 4760 votes vs. 1148 votes in GE14. By comparing the size of the IND vote with the winning majority, we can see whether their voters could have flipped the seat results if they had sided with the runner-up.
• PENGKALAN BATU, N24.BEMBAN and N26.SERKAM are seats where the IND vote was greater than the winning majority.
• SUNGAI UDANG and N21.DUYONG are seats where the IND vote came close to the winning majority.

BN won 21 seats, increasing their total by 8 seats from GE14. Out of these 21 seats:

• 4 seats were won with majorities of <500 votes, up from 2 seats in GE14
• 7 seats were won with majorities between 501 – 999 votes, up from 4 seats in GE14
• 6 seats were won with at least 50% SOV, up from 5 seats from GE14

PH won 5 seats, reducing their total by 10 seats from GE14. Out of these 5 seats:

• 0 seats were won with a majority of <500 votes, down from 1 seat in GE14
• 0 seats were won with majorities between 501 – 999 votes, down from 2 seats in GE14
• 4 seats were won with at least 50% SOV, down from 9 seats in GE14

PN won 2 seats, out of which:

• 1 seat was won with a majority of <500 votes
• 1 seat was won with a majority between 501 – 999 votes
• 0 seats were won with at least 50% SOV

PH lost 4 strong seats (those with >=50% SOV) in 2021:

• REMBIA (previously won by PKR)
• MACHAP JAYA (previously won by PKR)
• PAYA RUMPUT (previously won by PPBM)
• PENGKALAN BATU (previously won by DAP)

All 4 seats were won by BN. N6.REMBIA was contested by the incumbent, who had left PKR to join BN.

The chart below shows the share of vote of the winning party in each seat, ordered by the seat code. Markers on the chart are colour-coded by the winning party – dark blue for BN; light blue for PN; and red for PH.

This chart helps visualise the number of seats won with at least 50% SOV by each party. A strong SOV makes it harder for opponents to win the seat. BN won 6 seats while PH won 4 seats with a minimum of 50% SOV. Only 10/28 seats can be considered ‘safe seats’ for PH and BN.

Both of PN’s seats were won with smaller SOVs at 43.65% and 34.60%, making them vulnerable in the next election.

For each seat we can look at which coalition ranked in 1^st, 2^nd and 3^rd place in terms of SOV. This gives an idea of voter preference. In GE14 PAS consistently came in 3^rd place in each of the 24 seats that they contested. But in 2021 the rankings are different.

This is shown in the tables below:

GE14 Rankings

Coalition/Ranking	First	Second	Third
BN	13	15	0
PH	15	13	0
PAS	0	0	24

 

2021 Rankings

Coalition/Ranking	First	Second	Third
BN	21	7	0
PH	5	11	12
PN	2	10	16

 

Comparison of Rankings by Seat

Observations on rankings:

• BN has improved their rankings in 9 seats, coming in at 1^st place in 21 seats and 2^nd place in 7 seats in 2021
• BN maintained its 1^st place ranking in 12 seats
• BN maintained its 2^nd place ranking in 6 seats
• BN dropped from 1^st place to 2^nd place in 1 seat (N11)
• BN improved from 2^nd place to 1^st place in 9 seats
• PH performed poorly in their rankings with no improvement
• PH maintained its 1^st place ranking in 5 seats and 2^nd place ranking in 3 seats
• PH dropped from 1^st place to 2^nd place in 8 seats
• PH dropped from 2^nd place to 3^rd place in 10 seats
• PH dropped from 1^st place to 3^rd place in 2 seats (N23 and N24)
• PN (compared to PAS) improved their rankings, coming in at 1^st place in 2 seats and 2^nd place in 10 seats.
• PN coming in at 3^rd place in 16 seats indicates that it would be very difficult for them to win enough seats (15) to form the state government on their own in the next election.

 

5. The Swing in Support

5.1 Overall Swing

To measure the swing in support by vote share we will compare the SOV for BN and PH in 2021 against their SOV in GE14. For PN we will compare their 2021 SOV against PAS’ GE14 SOV.

Despite winning 21 seats in 2021, BN’s SOV only increase by 0.55 points. PH lost 15.3 points. This reduced share of vote for PH went to BN, PN (13.53 points) and Independents and other parties (1.21 points) as shown in the chart below:

This does not mean that voters abandoned BN and went straight to PH, PN and others. What is shown is a nett gain/loss in share of vote. Voters went from PH to BN, PN or others; from BN to PH, PN or others; and from both BN and PH to PN or others. This applies to all our charts and statistics related to the swing in vote share.

5.2 Swing by State Seat

To better understand that we can show the shift in support by state seat. The chart below shows the shift in votes to and from BN and PH.

Each seat is represented as a square labelled with the seat code. Each seat is coloured based on the winning party – dark blue for BN; light blue for PN; and red for PH.

Each seat is positioned based on the swing in share of vote from GE14:

• Horizontal positioning indicates percentage shifts to/from BN
• Vertical positioning indicates percentage shifts to/from PH

Observations:

• PH lost vote share in all 28 seats, with the smallest loss being from N20.KOTA LAKSAMANA (-0.86 points) and the worst loss being from N11.SUNGAI UDANG (-30.70 points).
• BN lost vote share in 15 seats, with the smallest loss being from N7.GADEK (-0.13 points) and the worst loss being from N11.SUNGAI UDANG (-15.98 points).
• BN gained vote share in 13 seats, with the smallest gains being from N9.DURIAN TUNGGAL (0.29 points) and the biggest gains being from N4.LENDU (17 points).
• BN lost an average of -4.35 points per seat (for 15 seats), with values concentrated between -0.13 to -5 points.
• PH’s losses were greater than BN’s losses, with the average loss for PH being -15.11 points, with values concentrated in a range of -10 to -20 points.
• BN gained an average of 6.57 points per seat (for 13 seats) with values concentrated between 3 and 8 points.
• Not all seats have the same number of voters. When we look at the state election results as a whole, BN’s total gain in SOV was only 0.55 points while PH’s total loss was -15.3 points.

The chart below shows the shift in votes to and from PN and PH.

As in the previous chart, each seat is colour based on the winning party and positioned based on percentage shifts to/from PN and PH. Observations:

• PN gained vote share in every seat, with the smallest gains being from N10.ASAHAN (3.16 points) and the biggest gains from N11.SUNGAI UDANG (43.65 points).
• PN gained an average of 13.18 points per seat with values concentrated between 8 and 20 points.
• PH lost vote share to both BN and PN in 13 seats, with PN gaining more from PH’ loss than BN.

 

5.3 Statistics on Support and Swing by State Seat

The following table list the SOV for GE14 and 2021 and gain/loss in SOV for the respective party/coalition for each State seat. Each cell is shaded based on the value ranging from Red (low/negative) to Yellow to Green (high). The gain/loss in SOV for PN is based on a comparison with PAS’ SOV from GE14.

 

6. The Urban-Rural Divide

6.1 Support by Urban Development Category

The tables below summarise the number of votes won by each party/coalition and turnout rate for seats in each urban development category.

Urban development category classification was based on Parliament seat constituency maps, not State constituency maps. Turnout rate is calculated using total valid votes instead of total ballots.

GE14

Urban Dev. Category	Registered Voters	BN	PAS	PH	IND	Total Votes	Turnout (%)
Rural	195,237	73,109	22,559	66,245	0	161,913	82.93
Semi-Urban	83,213	30,548	5,760	32,595	0	68,903	82.80
Urban	216,212	52,661	16,218	112,313	1,148	182,340	84.33
Total	494,662	156,318	44,537	211,153	1,148	413,156	83.52

 

2021 State Election

Urban Dev. Category	Registered Voters	BN	PN	PH	IND	Total Votes	Turnout (%)	Change in Turnout (pts)
Rural	195,524	61,299	35,734	30,109	2,101	129,243	66.10	-16.83
Semi-Urban	84,693	22,077	17,778	15,187	679	55,721	65.79	-17.01
Urban	214,978	39,365	24,219	69,161	1,980	134,725	62.67	-21.66
Total	495,195	122,741	77,731	114,457	4,760	319,689	64.56	-18.96

 

The drop in voter turnout was greatest in Urban seats at -21.66 points. Urban seats went from having the highest turnout rate in GE14 to the lowest turnout rate in 2021.

The high drop in turnout rate reduced the share of vote that came from Urban seats. In GE14, Urban seats contributed 44.13% of the vote. In 2021, Urban seats contributed 42.14% of the vote. This was a reduction in vote share of 1.99 points, which resulted in Rural voters and Semi-Urban voters having greater representation in the state-level share of vote.

The chart below shows the proportion of votes that went to each party/coalition by voters in each urban development category in GE14. This helps to show the preferred choice of voters based on the level of urban development. For example, 45.15% of Rural voters voted for BN while 61.60% of Urban voters voted for PH.

 

Party / Urban Dev. Category	Rural	Semi-Urban	Urban
BN	45.15	44.33	28.88
PAS	13.93	8.36	8.89
PH	40.91	47.31	61.60
IND	0.00	0.00	0.63
Total	100.00	100.00	100.00

 

Observations:

• PH won the largest vote share in Semi-Urban and Urban seats.
• The margin was small between BN and PH for voters in Semi-Urban seats, with 47.31% of the vote going to PH and 44.33% of the vote going to BN.
• Rural seats were also where BN performed best, winning the largest vote-share with 45.15% of the vote.
• PAS’ best performance was with Rural voters, where they won 13.93% of the vote.

Here is the same chart using data from the 2021 State elections:

 

Party / Urban Dev. Category	Rural	Semi-Urban	Urban
BN	47.43	39.62	29.22
PN	27.65	31.91	17.98
PH	23.30	27.26	51.33
IND	1.63	1.22	1.47
Total	100.00	100.00	100.00

 

By comparing both tables we can get the swing in SOV by urban development category:

Party / Urban Dev. Category	Rural	Semi-Urban	Urban
BN	2.28	-4.71	0.34
PN	13.72	23.55	9.08
PH	-17.62	-20.05	-10.26
IND	1.63	1.22	0.84

 

Observations:

• BN made small nett gains in Rural and Urban seats but lost SOV in Semi-Urban seats. Semi-Urban seats are areas where BN needs to work harder to improve their SOV.
• PH’s biggest losses were in Semi-Urban seats where their vote share dropped by -20.05 points
• PH’ smallest losses were in Urban seats, where their vote share dropped by -10.26 points.
• PN had large gains in vote share in every urban development category. PN’s best gains were in Semi-Urban seats, where they gained 23.55 points.
• PH’ nett loss was offset by PN’s nett gain. In 19 seats at least 75% of PH’s nett loss in SOV went to PN (though as we explained before, voters did not shift directly from PH to PN):
  • 5 Urban seats
  • 4 Semi-Urban seats
  • 10 Rural Seats

6.2 Distribution of Support by Urban Development Category

The following chart show where votes came from for each party/coalition based on the urban development category of the constituencies in GE14. This helps to measure the ‘base’ of each party. For example, 46.77% of BN votes came from Rural seats; and 53.19% of PH votes came from Urban seats. 44.13% of total votes cast came from Urban seats. The last column shows the vote distribution for the total votes, for comparison.

 

Urban Dev. Category	BN	PAS	PH	IND	Total Votes
Rural	46.77	50.65	31.37	0.00	39.19
Semi-Urban	19.54	12.93	15.44	0.00	16.68
Urban	33.69	36.41	53.19	100.00	44.13

 

Observations:

• PH’s vote share was more concentrated in Urban seats.
• BN’s vote share was more concentrated in Rural seats.
• PAS’ vote share was heavily concentrated in Rural seats.
• Independent (and other party) candidates only ran in Urban seats, which is why the value for IND is 100%.

Here is the same chart using data from the 2021 State elections:

 

Urban Dev. Category	BN	PN	PH	IND	Total Votes
Rural	49.94	45.97	26.31	44.14	40.43
Semi-Urban	17.99	22.87	13.27	14.26	17.43
Urban	32.07	31.16	60.43	41.60	42.14

 

By comparing both tables we can get the swing in SOV by party and urban development category:

Urban Dev. Category	BN	PN	PH	IND	Total Votes
Rural	3.17	-4.68	-5.07	44.14	1.24
Semi-Urban	-1.56	9.94	-2.17	14.26	0.75
Urban	-1.62	-5.26	7.23	-58.40	-1.99

 

Observations:

• PH’s voter base has become more Urban, increasing by 7.23 points from 53.19% to 60.43% of PH votes coming from Urban voters.
• BN’s voter base has become more Rural, increasing by 3.17 points from 46.77% to 49.94% of BN votes coming from Rural voters.
• PN’s voter base (compared to PAS) is more Semi-Urban, less Rural, and less Urban. Their distribution is similar to BN’s but with a greater concentration for Semi-Urban voters and lower concentration for Rural voters.
• Rural voters had greater representation in the state-level SOV, increasing by 1.24 points to 40.43% of the total vote.

 

7. Voter Turnout Analysis

7.1 Introduction

Based on the turnout formula of total valid votes / registered voters (instead of total ballots):

• In GE13 voter turnout in Melaka was 85.97%.
• In GE14 voter turnout dropped 2.45 points to 83.52%.
• In 2021 voter turnout dropped further by 18.96 points to 64.56%. This was a loss of 93,467 valid votes.

Compared to GE14, in 2021:

• BN won 33,577 less votes
• PH won 96,696 less votes
• PN (when compared to PAS) won 33,194 more votes
• Independents won 3,612 more votes

In our previous analysis of the Melaka GE14 Results (using the turnout formula of total ballots / registered voters), we found that for regular voters:

• Voter turnout rate dropped in every age group with a total of 14,731 voters.
• Voter turnout rate was highest among 51-60 year-olds at 87.45%.
• Voter turnout rate was lowest among senior citizens aged above 70 years at 77.98%.
• Young adult voters (21-40 years) and senior citizens (71+ years) had the largest drops in voter turnout at -5.76 points for young adult voters and -3.77 points for senior citizens.
• Voters aged 41-60 years had the smallest reduction in voter turnout rate at -1.44 points for voters aged 41-50 years and -0.78 points for voters aged 51-60 years.
• Chinese voters had the highest turnout rate at 83.34%. Indian voters had the largest drop in turnout rates at -3.9 points, while Chinese voters had the smallest drop in turnout rates at -2.82 points.
• Malay voter turnout rate was at 83.15 points, a reduction of -3.08 points from the forecasted 86.23 points
• Young voters (21-30 years) had the largest drops in voter turnout, particularly Indian voters. Turnout rate drops were higher with Indian voters compared to Malays and Chinese in every age group.
• Rural voters had the largest drop in turnout rates (-3.53 points), while Urban voters had the smallest drop in turnout rates (-2.52 points).
• Urban voters also had the least reduction in voter turnout rates, apart from senior citizens aged above 70 years where the reduction was larger than with Rural and Semi-Urban voters of the same age group.
• Young voters (21-30 years) had the largest drops in voter turnout, particularly Semi-Urban and Rural voters.

As we are unable to perform detailed analysis of the 2021 results, we cannot examine the results to see if trends by ethnic group and age group from GE14 still held. We will do what analysis we can based on the seat-level statistics.

 

7.2 Turnout and Swing by State Seat

The following table list the share of vote, gain/loss in share of vote, turnout rates for GE14 and 2021 and gain/loss in turnout rate for each State seat. Each cell is shaded based on the value ranging from Red (low/negative) to Yellow to Green (high).

7.3 Analysis of Turnout and Swing by State Seat

The chart below visualises the change in voter turnout in GE14 for regular voters (97% of the electorate), ordered by the seat code. This change was calculated based on the forecasted total ballots cast vs the actual total ballots cast in GE14. The reason that we use the forecast instead of the GE13 statistics is due to a redelineation exercise that redrew constituency boundaries between GE13 and GE14. Our methodology calculates forecasted voter turnout based on individual voters’ previous polling lane records, so redelineation is not an issue.

Markers on the chart are colour-coded by the seat classification – red for Rural seats; Blue for Semi-Urban seats and Yellow for Urban seats.

As we highlighted before, Rural voters had the largest drop in turnout rates (-3.53 points), while Urban voters had the smallest drop in turnout rates (-2.52 points). Voter turnout dropped in 27 seats by an average of -3.37 points.

On a per-seat basis there was a drop in voter turnout in every seat except N17.BUKIT KATIL which saw an increase of 1.70 points thanks to a boost in voter turnout in the KAMPUNG BUKIT KATIL polling district.

Here is the breakdown of the 14 worst seats in terms of voter turnout drop:

• 3 Urban seats
• 3 Semi-Urban seats
• 8 Rural seats

If we were to compare turnout rates based on total votes per-seat for GE13 and GE14 (which in our view is less accurate due to the redelineation issue, new voter registrations and voter migration), the result is shown in the chart below. Markers on the chart are colour-coded by seat classification as in the previous chart.

Voter turnout dropped in every seat by an average of -2.47 points. Here is the breakdown of the 14 worst seats in terms of voter turnout drop:

• 2 Urban seats
• 3 Semi-Urban seats
• 9 Rural seats

9 seats are present in both lists of 14 worst seats. Both approaches to evaluating voter turnout yielded the same pattern – that is, turnout drop was higher in Rural seats.

The chart below visualises the change in voter turnout for all voters between 2021 and GE14, ordered by the seat code. This change was calculated based on the actual valid votes cast in both elections. The reason we use valid votes instead of ballots is because the detailed statistics on the number of ballots cast in 2021 has not been released yet. Markers on the chart are colour-coded by the winning party from GE14 – dark blue for BN and red for PH.

Observations:

• Voter turnout dropped in every seat, by an average of -18.20 points
• 13/14 of the worst seats in terms of voter turnout drop were seats previously won by PH in GE14, with reductions ranging from -17.81 points to -25.26 points
• PH was the common factor for these 13 seats, not the urban development category. Here is how the seats break down:
  • 7 Urban seats
  • 2 Semi-Urban seats
  • 4 Rural seats
• The other seat with a high drop in turnout was N1.KUALA LINGGI, which was a Rural seat previously won by BN that had a drop of -19.47 points
• The 4 worst seats in terms of voter turnout drop were Chinese-majority seats, with reductions ranging from -24.20 points to -25.26 points
• The top 14 seats in terms of voter turnout had reductions ranging from -11.43 points to -17.72 points. Out of these 14 seats:
  • 2 seats were Urban
  • 2 seats were Semi-Urban
  • 10 seats were Rural
• In GE14 voter turnout reduced more in Rural seats than in Urban seats. In 2021 the pattern reversed with voter turnout reducing more in Urban seats than in Rural seats. While we are using different statistics (regular voter ballots in the previous chart vs total valid votes in this chart) for making the comparison, the pattern should still apply unless there was an unusual increase in the number of postal votes, missing ballots or spoilt ballots in 2021.

7.4 Turnout Rate by Urban Development Category

The table below shows a comparison between the turnout rate in GE14 and the turnout rate in the 2021 elections by urban development category, based on valid votes.

Detail/Urban Dev. Category	Rural	Semi-Urban	Urban	Total
GE14 Turnout Rate (%)	82.93	82.80	84.33	83.52
2021 Turnout Rate (%)	66.10	65.79	62.67	64.56
2021 Turnout Swing (points)	-16.83	-17.01	-21.66	-18.96

 

Urban voters had the largest drop in turnout rates, while Rural voters had the smallest drop in turnout rates.

 

8. Final Observations

This report’s findings are limited due to the lack of polling lane level data. Based on our analysis of the share of vote and voter turnout, the following conclusions are what we consider to be most important for the Melaka 2021 State Elections.

Low Voter Turnout Had Major Impact

Here is a recap of the 2021 State elections results:

• BN won 8 more seats, increasing their total from 13 seats to 21 seats and increasing their vote share from 37.84% to 38.39%.
• PH lost 10 seats, reducing their total from 15 seats to 5 seats and had their vote share reduced from 51.1% to 35.80%.
• PN won 2 seats, an improvement over GE14 where PAS won no seats. Their vote share increased from 10.78% to 24.31%.

The small increase in vote share for BN gave them 8 seats and a greater than two-thirds majority in the State Assembly. This was due not just to the vote being split 3-ways between BN, PH and PN but also the low voter turnout.

Comparing the 2021 State election results with the GE14 results:

• Voter turnout dropped by 18.96% (based on valid votes formula)
• The number of valid votes dropped by 22.62%, or 93,467 votes.
• BN won 21.48% less votes (33,577 votes)
• PH won 45.79% less votes (96,696 votes). Nearly half of their previous supporters did not vote for them in 2021.
• If we exclude PPBM from the GE14 total, then PH won 34.84% less votes (61,200 votes) in 2021, still more than a third of their previous supporters.
• PN won 74.53% more votes (33,194 votes)
• The drop in voter turnout was highest in 13/15 seats previously won by PH in GE14
• The drop in voter turnout was highest in Chinese-majority seats. Without detailed analysis of polling results it is not possible to say whether the drop in voter turnout was higher among Chinese voters compared to other ethnic groups.
• The drop in voter turnout (based on valid votes) was highest in Urban seats in 2021. In GE14 the drop in voter turnout (based on ballots) was highest in Rural seats, so this was a significant change in pattern for voter turnout.
• Low voter turnout caused Urban voter representation in the final vote share to drop by 2%, resulting in greater representation for Rural voters and Semi-Urban voters.

Many of PH’s previous voters from GE14 either chose not to vote this time around, or shifted their support to one of the other parties.

When it comes to support from those who did vote, PH lost support from Rural voters. Their support base has become smaller and more Urban-centric (60.43%), which is not a good trend for the next election.

BN gained support from Rural voters but lost support from Semi-Urban and Urban voters. BN’s support base has become more Rural-centric (49.94%).

PN’s voter base distribution is similar to BN’s, but slightly less Rural-centric (45.97%) and having greater concentration with Semi-Urban voters (22.87% vs BN’s 17.99%)

In GE14 on a national level, based on our observations on social media, two factors affected voter turnout:

1. Having polling day mid-week on a Wednesday instead of the weekend. This increased the difficulty for outstation voters to come back and vote for reasons such as taking leave from work and finding transport. On April 11^th, 2018 the government declared May 9^th (polling day) a public holiday, but complaints continued to be expressed online.
2. Having less appealing Prime Minister candidates for BN and PH – Najib Razak for BN and Tun Mahathir for PH. From our observations of social media before and during the election, this reduced enthusiasm to vote among the youth.

In 2021 based on our observations of Twitter users nationwide talking about going back to vote or coming out to vote in the Melaka State Elections, these were the most common reasons cited for not voting:

1. Fear of Covid-19 infection
2. Disappointment in political parties contesting and lack of faith in the process. Some users failed to see the point in voting due to political parties’ seeming acceptance of party-hopping. There were views expressing that if winning politicians can change parties after an election and cause a change of government mid-term, then there was no point in voting.
3. Cost of travel (for outstation voters)

These are reasons that all political parties need to address in the next General Election, particularly for young voters.

 

PH’s Losses were PN’s Gain

Out of PH’s nett loss of 15.3 points, 0.55 points went to BN, 13.53 points went to PN and 1.21 points went to Independents and other parties. Most of PH’s losses resulted in gains for PN. In 19 seats at least 75% of PH’s nett loss in SOV went to PN.

But the gains in SOV were not enough for PN to win more than 2 seats, and the split voting served to benefit BN giving them 21 seats. 13 of BN’s seats were won with small majorities with 4 seats having <500 votes majority and 7 seats with a majority of 501-999 votes. This makes BN vulnerable in the next election should a similar 3-way contest occur.

Independents and other parties are also a potential issue for winning parties with 3 seats (N15.PENGKALAN BATU, N24.BEMBAN and N26.SERKAM) where the total votes for Independents was greater than the winning majority. It is possible for Independents to split the vote further next election.

When we look at party rankings by SOV in each seat, PH came in 2^nd place in 11 seats and PN came in 2^nd place in 10 seats. In order to win the next state election, PH and PN need to swing enough votes away from their opponents to beat the winning majority to win a total of 15 seats.

For PH, 8 seats where they came in 2^nd place had winning majorities of <1000 votes. Whereas for PN, only 3 seats where they came in 2^nd place had winning majorities of <1000 votes.

The advantage appears to be with PH, but if they cannot improve voter turnout and support from their previous GE14 supporters then PN might end up having the advantage over PH.

PN is still a threat to PH and BN, particularly with the uncertainty introduced with automated voter registration and the lowering of the voting age to 18 years old for the next election.

 

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