1. Introduction
On January 10th 2018 a detailed listing of the 165 seats being contested by Pakatan Harapan (PH) component parties in Peninsular Malaysia was published in The Star and Malaysiakini (https://www.malaysiakini.com/news/408114). Based on this listing, the seat division is as follows:
- 52 seats contested by PPBM
- 51 seats contested by PKR
- 35 seats contested by DAP
- 27 seats contested by AMANAH
This report provides an overview of the seats contested by component parties in PH, the winning odds and forecasted results for each seat under a number of different scenarios. Analysis was performed based on the 2017 1st Quarter (Q1) electoral roll, 2016 3rd Quarter (Q3) electoral roll, State and Federal seat results from the 13th General Election (GE13) and individual historical voting patterns from GE12 (2008) and GE13 (2013).
A copy of this report in PDF format can be downloaded at https://drive.google.com/file/d/16glv67fwRybQxdKS7X1fFC9R1SN0TSGy/view?usp=sharing
2. List of Acronyms
The following table shows a list of acronyms used in this document.
| Acronym | Full name |
| PR | Pakatan Rakyat (coalition of PKR, DAP and PAS) |
| PH | Pakatan Harapan (coalition of PKR, DAP and AMANAH) |
| BN | Barisan Nasional |
| UMNO | United Malays National Organisation |
| GERAKAN | Parti Gerakan Rakyat Malaysia (also known as PGRM) |
| MCA | Malaysian Chinese Association |
| MIC | Malaysian Indian Congress |
| PBB | Parti Pesaka Bumiputra Bersatu Sarawak |
| PKR | Parti Keadilan Rakyat |
| DAP | Democratic Action Party |
| AMANAH | Parti Amanah Negara |
| PAS | Parti Islam Se-Malaysia |
| PPBM | Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia |
| EC | Election Commission of Malaysia |
| GE12 | 12th General Election (held in March 2008) |
| GE13 | 13th General Election (held in May 2013) |
3. Methodology
Prior to the 13th General Election (GE13) we came up with a methodology of predicting election results based on voting patterns in previous elections (https://politweet.wordpress.com/2013/05/05/predictions-for-malaysias-general-election-ge13-pru13/).
Our method relied on mapping polling lane results to individual voters. This process assigned probability values (chance of turnout; chance of voting for each coalition) to the voter that was not affected if they migrated to another constituency. This is important because between GE12 and GE13 527,849 voters migrated between different constituencies.
The impact of voter migration cannot be measured for a single seat just by comparing results of GE12 and GE13 for that seat. An analysis of the whole country needs to be performed. New voter registrations, transferred voters, voters passing away and voters no longer eligible to vote are factors that require deep analysis.
After GE13 we were able to apply the same estimation method to voters based on GE13 results. By comparing the shift in probabilities we are able to calculate the swing in support for each coalition. Because we base our calculations on individual voters, we are able to calculate shifts in support based on combinations of the following dimensions:
- By Age
- By Race
- By Gender
- By Urban Development Category (rural / semi-urban / urban)
- By Parliament/State Assembly Seat
- By Polling District
- By Locality
- By Seats Won by Specific Parties
The most reliable metric is age because voters are separated into polling lanes based on age. The majority of polling lanes contain between 350 – 700 voters.
How probabilities were assigned
- The ethnic composition of each polling lane was calculated. This was used to adjust the probability levels for individual voters.
- The polling lane result was used to generate a probability figure e.g. 60% of votes for BN and 40% of votes for PR means a base probability value of 60% pro-BN and 40% pro-PR is generated for all voters in that polling lane.
- The base probability was then adjusted based on the ethnic composition. This assumes voter turnout was evenly spread among all ethnic groups. For example:
- In a polling lane of 600 voters (assume 100% turnout), BN received 360 votes (60%)
- 420 voters (70%) of the voters are Malay and 180 voters (30%) are Chinese.
- That means BN received votes from at least 180 Malays and at most 360 Malays.
- 180/420 = 42.86% of Malays
- 360/420 = 85.71% of Malays
- BN received votes from 42.86% – 85.71% of Malay voters. This is the range of probability that Malay voters in that lane voted for BN. The average probability is a 64% chance of voting BN.
- For the 180 Chinese voters, BN did not need their vote. BN received votes from 0% – 100% of Chinese voters. This translates to an average probability of 50% chance of voting for BN. This also applies to the probability that they voted PR.
- For PR, they received 240 votes (40%). Based on the ethnic ratio, at least 60 Malays voted for PR.
- 60/420 = 14.29% of Malays
- 240/420 = 57.14% of Malays
- PR received votes from 14.29% – 57.14% of Malays. This translates to an average probability of 35.7% that Malay voters in that lane voted for PR.
- A non-racial method would assign a probability of 60% for BN and 40% for PR. By adjusting for race we identified the higher probability of Malays voting for BN and the higher probability of Chinese voting for PR (50% instead of 40%).
- Any voter belonging to a minority group small enough to not affect the polling lane result either way is also assigned a probability of 50%. For example, if 5% of a polling lane’s voters are of Race X and the rest are Race Y, and the result is 90% in favour of Party A, then voters of Race X are assigned a value of 50%.
- This race-based approach proved more accurate at identifying patterns and predicting results in elections.
- For individuals who previously voted in seats with 3-corner fights between PR component parties, all PR votes were treated as one party. If the result was 60% BN, 20% PAS and 20% DAP then the base probability for voters in that lane would be 60% BN and 20% PR.
- For seats where BN did not contest and it was a contest between PR and Independents, Independent results were treated as pro-BN results.
- Any voter whose level of support cannot be determined is assigned a probability of 50% on voting BN/Opposition and categorised as a fence-sitter.
- Voting preferences and turnout rates for new voters are calculated based on averages from their peers – individuals with similar characteristics (age, race, location) in the electoral roll.
By calculating support and swing levels at the individual level we can address the impact of voter migration between seats; voters who have passed away; and new voters registered to vote since GE13.
Because individual voters have their own support and swing statistics, we can calculate the proportion of the electorate that is leaning towards Opposition (>50% probability of voting Opposition); leaning towards BN (<50% probability of voting PR); and on the fence (50% probability of voting Opposition). Voters who are leaning BN might still vote Opposition, so this metric is only an indicator of how good the odds are for the Opposition/BN to win support from the electorate.
To see previous applications of this method please read our previous reports at the following links:
- The Impact of Redelineation on The Selangor State Elections (https://politweet.wordpress.com/2016/11/09/the-impact-of-redelineation-on-the-selangor-state-elections/)
- How Barisan Nasional and Pakatan Rakyat Performed with Voters in Sarawak (GE13) (https://politweet.wordpress.com/2016/04/16/how-barisan-nasional-and-pakatan-rakyat-performed-with-voters-in-sarawak-ge13/)
- Analysing Pakatan Rakyat’s Performance with Malay Voters in Peninsular Malaysia (GE13) (https://politweet.wordpress.com/2015/07/27/analysing-pakatan-rakyats-performance-with-malay-voters-in-peninsular-malaysia-ge13/)
- Urban Development Categorisation of Parliament Seats in Malaysia (https://politweet.wordpress.com/2013/05/30/urban-development-categorisation-of-parliament-seats-in-malaysia/)
How our method applies to redelineation
For constituency redelineation, the effect is the same as voter migration – constituencies, polling districts and localities may contain different groups of voters before and after redelineation.
Using these probabilities we simulated the electoral performance for Barisan Nasional and the Opposition before and after redelineation to get a sense of how the redrawing of constituency boundaries affected the election result.
4. Overview of Peninsular Malaysia Election Statistics
Total seats: 165
Total voters: 12,227,823
Net increase in voters: 1,050,081
New voters (since GE13): 1,530,764
Removed voters (since GE13): 480,683
The division of voters by ethnic group is shown in the chart below.
Division of Seats Won by Each Party in GE13
In GE13 PR won 89 seats while BN won 133 seats. In Peninsular Malaysia PR won 80 seats while BN won 85 seats.
| Party | Contested | Won |
| BN | 165 | 85 |
| PKR | 64 | 28 |
| DAP | 36 | 31 |
| PAS | 65 | 21 |
The breakdown of seats won by urban development category is shown in the table below:
| Urban Development Category / Party | DAP | PKR | PAS | BN | Total |
| Rural | 2 | 2 | 11 | 66 | 81 |
| Semi-Urban | 10 | 14 | 6 | 14 | 44 |
| Urban | 19 | 12 | 4 | 5 | 40 |
Distribution of Voter Support
The chart below shows the distribution of voters based on their probability of voting for BN or Opposition at the Federal level.
A voter is categorised as Leaning Opposition if they have a >50% probability of voting for Opposition parties or is categorised as Leaning BN if they have a >50% probability of voting BN. Otherwise they are categorised as a Fence Sitter.
In GE13 44% of voters were leaning towards Opposition, 38% were leaning towards BN and 18% were on the fence.
As of 2017Q1 an estimated 44% of voters are leaning towards Opposition, 39% are leaning towards BN and 17% are on the fence. The only change is an increase of 1 point for BN while the Opposition’s share remains the same.
New Voters
The division of voters by estimated ethnic group is shown in the chart below.
When we look at the predicted leaning of new voters, 45% of the voters are leaning towards BN.
This is because of the high proportion of new Malay voters in areas that saw stronger support for BN in GE13.
In a previous report (https://politweet.wordpress.com/2015/07/27/analysing-pakatan-rakyats-performance-with-malay-voters-in-peninsular-malaysia-ge13/) we highlighted that Malay voters were starting to turn away from the Opposition in GE13 in many seats on a national scale. How this will impact GE14 will depend on how these new voters are distributed on a per-seat basis.
5. Overview of GE14 Contested Seats
The number of seats contested by each component party of PH is listed below.
| Party | GE13 | GE14 | Voters (2017Q1) |
| PPBM | – | 52 | 2,990,177 |
| PKR | 64 | 51 | 4,312,054 |
| DAP | 36 | 35 | 2,790,945 |
| AMANAH | – | 27 | 2,134,647 |
The breakdown of seats contested by urban development category is shown in the table below:
| Urban Development Category / Party | Total | PPBM | PKR | DAP | AMANAH |
| Rural | 81 | 44 | 14 | 6 | 17 |
| Semi-Urban | 44 | 6 | 23 | 10 | 5 |
| Urban | 40 | 2 | 14 | 19 | 5 |
The breakdown of seats contested by ethnic majority is shown in the table below:
| Ethnic Majority | Seats | PPBM | PKR | DAP | AMANAH |
| Malay | 115 | 51 | 37 | 2 | 25 |
| Chinese | 21 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 0 |
| Mixed | 29 | 1 | 14 | 12 | 2 |
| Total | 165 | 52 | 51 | 35 | 27 |
The breakdown of voters in contested seats by ethnic group is shown in the table below:
| Ethnic Group | PPBM | PKR | DAP | AMANAH |
| Malay / Muslim Bumiputera | 2,453,185 | 2,578,487 | 809,990 | 1,588,267 |
| Chinese | 369,722 | 1,247,741 | 1,619,458 | 364,140 |
| Indian | 110,576 | 424,096 | 323,672 | 156,964 |
| Other/Unknown | 56,694 | 61,730 | 37,825 | 25,276 |
| Total | 2,990,177 | 4,312,054 | 2,790,945 | 2,134,647 |
The composition of voters in contested seats by ethnic group on a party basis is shown in the following charts.
Distribution of Voter Support
The table below shows the distribution of voters based on their probability of voting for BN or the Opposition.
| Party | Seats | % Leaning BN |
% Fence Sitters
|
% Leaning Opposition
|
| PPBM | 52 | 62 | 11 | 27 |
| PKR | 51 | 39 | 21 | 40 |
| DAP | 35 | 17 | 20 | 63 |
| AMANAH | 27 | 35 | 15 | 50 |
PPBM is contesting rural, Malay-majority seats that would be challenging to win in a straight fight against BN. 35/52 seats were contested by PAS in GE13, which means PPBM will face an even greater challenge in a 3-corner fight with PAS.
PKR is contesting a mix of seats with a fairly even split between Opposition and BN leaning voters.
DAP is contesting mainly urban/semi-urban, Chinese-majority seats with a large proportion of Opposition-leaning voters.
AMANAH is contesting mostly rural, Malay-majority seats with a large proportion of Opposition-leaning voters. However 26/27 seats were contested by PAS in GE13, which means this large share of voters will be split between both Opposition parties.
If voter sentiment in GE14 remains the same as GE13, we can expect AMANAH and PPBM to win few seats.
6. How elections are simulated
To simulate an election, we take all the individual voters for a given constituency and run them through a process:
- Each individual will have a probability of turning out to vote; a probability of voting for BN; a probability of voting for the Opposition; and a probability of voting for an Independent/Third party.
- Our system will generate a random number to test if the voter turned out to vote.
- If he/she voted, then the system generates another random number to see which party they voted for.
- The result of the simulation is stored in a database
- We ran 300 simulations for each scenario, and use the average results. The winning odds for the seat is calculated as the percentage of winning scenarios.
- Any seat with a winning majority of 1 – 1,000 is classified as HIGH RISK
- Any seat with a winning majority of 1,001 – 2,000 is classified as MARGINAL RISK
In the simulations we ran for this report, we adjusted the probabilities to work for a straight fight between BN and the Opposition.
For each simulation we also tracked the ethnic divide of the vote e.g. how many Malay voters voted for BN. All simulations were run using the 2016Q3 electoral roll.
- Election Simulation Results
We ran 300 simulations per-seat for each scenario under the following conditions:
- Straight fights between BN and a united Opposition
- PAS was not included, any support for PAS is assumed to be ‘pro-Opposition’ support
- No redelineation
- Voter sentiment unchanged since GE13
- Average voter turnout rate based on GE13
- The chance of winning a seat by a given party is based on the number of simulations where that party won the seat
- The upper and lower bounds for results will be shown to give an idea of the best and worst-case scenarios for each coalition
The 3 scenarios tested were:
- Scenario 1: Voter sentiment unchanged since GE13
- Scenario 2: +2 point increased support for the Opposition i.e. a voter with a 48% probability of voting Opposition would now have a 50% probability of voting Opposition
- Scenario 3: +5 point increased support for the Opposition
The full results are listed in Appendix 2. A summary of the results is in the table below:
| Party | Scenario 1: GE13 Odds | Scenario 2: PH +2pts | Scenario 3: PH +5pts |
| BN | 82 – 89 | 66 – 76 | 48 – 50 |
| PH | 76 – 83 | 89 – 99 | 115 – 117 |
Division of seats won by party
The table below shows the range of seats won by each party for each scenario.
| Party | Contested Seats | Scenario 1: GE13 Odds | Scenario 2: PH +2pts | Scenario 3: PH+5 pts |
| PPBM | 52 | 3 – 6 | 7 – 12 | 17 – 17 |
| PKR | 51 | 28 | 31 – 34 | 44 – 44 |
| DAP | 35 | 31 | 33 – 34 | 34 – 34 |
| AMANAH | 27 | 14 – 18 | 18 – 19 | 20 – 22 |
(seats won = seats won under simulations within a min-max range)
Seats At-Risk
The table below summarises the number of PH-won seats considered to be at-risk, based on the average of the winning majorities for each scenario. The number of seats won if all high-risk seats are lost is shown in the last column. The range for each category is based on the min/max number of seats won.
| Scenario | Seats Won | Marginal Risk | High Risk | Total At-Risk | Seats Won without High Risk seats (= Seats Won – High Risk) |
| 1: GE13 Odds | 76 – 83 | 3 | 2 – 9 | 5 – 12 | 74 |
| 2: PH +2pts | 89 – 99 | 8 | 2 – 12 | 10 – 20 | 87 |
| 3: PH +5pts | 115 – 117 | 6 | 5– 7 | 11 – 13 | 110 |
(seats won = seats won under simulations within a min-max range)
8. Conclusion
In a straight fight against BN, PH can form the Federal government with a 5-point swing of support leading to a win of 115 seats. However a slim margin of 3 seats (112 seats is the minimum required) would not be enough for a stable government. A stronger swing of support and victories in East Malaysia would still be important for PH.
Due to the high risk seats, PH would need to target an additional 10 or more seats in East Malaysia. Given the performance of the Opposition in the Sarawak State elections in 2016 and the current state of the Opposition in Sabah, we can expect PH to face difficulty in winning 10 seats.
3-corner fights between PH, PAS and BN would most likely benefit BN. The only way for PH to overcome this is for their parties (particularly PPBM) to win over pro-BN supporters.
For example in a seat contested by PAS, PPBM and BN, if 10% of the anti-BN vote went to PAS, PPBM would need to counter that by getting >10% of the pro-BN vote. If PH is able to do this in 3-corner fights then the results of Scenario 3 (a 5-point swing to PH) can be achieved. This will lead to record victories for PH in Kedah and Johor, as well as control of the Federal government.
Another factor to consider is constituency redelineation, which has not been confirmed to take place before GE14. Through a separate set of simulations that we conducted, redelineation would improve the odds of BN winning the following 10 seats from the Opposition.
| State | Seat Code | Name | GE14 PH Contesting Party |
| TERENGGANU | 35 | KUALA NERUS | AMANAH |
| PERAK | 59 | BUKIT GANTANG | AMANAH |
| PERAK | 74 | LUMUT | AMANAH |
| SELANGOR | 101 | HULU LANGAT | AMANAH |
| SELANGOR | 109 | KAPAR | PKR |
| SELANGOR | 113 | SEPANG | AMANAH |
| W.P KUALA LUMPUR | 121 | LEMBAH PANTAI | PKR |
| NEGERI SEMBILAN | 132 | TELOK KEMANG | PKR |
| MELAKA | 137 | BUKIT KATIL | PKR |
| JOHOR | 150 | BATU PAHAT | PKR |
Lastly we have to consider the declining interest in political parties on Facebook. The graph below shows the monthly proportion of potential voters on Facebook (users in Malaysia aged 21 years and above) who expressed interest in BN or Opposition parties on Facebook. This is calculated based on their profile information, Page likes, posts, shares and other activity on Facebook.
From our observations on Twitter using our database of profiled users in Malaysia, support expressed for Opposition parties has been weak. This would indicate that support from the youth will be a problem in GE14.
To summarise:
- PPBM and AMANAH are contesting difficult seats to win a straight fight. With PAS splitting the vote, there will be few seats won by PPBM and AMANAH
- The impact of PAS contesting against PH in 3-corner fights needs to be overcome by PH winning votes from pro-BN voters. Only then can PH make significant enough gains
- PH still needs to win seats in East Malaysia to form a stable government even if they reduce the impact of votes going to PAS
- Constituency redelineation will make it easier for BN to win more seats from PH
- Low interest in political parties will make it harder for PH to spread their message through social media
A copy of this report in PDF format can be downloaded at https://drive.google.com/file/d/16glv67fwRybQxdKS7X1fFC9R1SN0TSGy/view?usp=sharing
9. Appendix 1: Peninsular Malaysia Seat Details
The table below lists the statistics and classification for each seat.
| State | Seat Code | Name | Voters (2017Q1) | Ethnic Majority | Urban Development Category | GE13 Winner | GE13 PR Contesting Party | GE14 PH Contesting Party |
| PERLIS | 1 | PADANG BESAR | 45336 | MALAY | RURAL | BN | PAS | PPBM |
| PERLIS | 2 | KANGAR | 54449 | MALAY | SEMI URBAN | BN | PAS | PKR |
| PERLIS | 3 | ARAU | 47102 | MALAY | RURAL | BN | PAS | PPBM |
| KEDAH | 4 | LANGKAWI | 40619 | MALAY | RURAL | BN | PKR | PPBM |
| KEDAH | 5 | JERLUN | 53470 | MALAY | RURAL | BN | PAS | PPBM |
| KEDAH | 6 | KUBANG PASU | 71348 | MALAY | SEMI URBAN | BN | PAS | PPBM |
| KEDAH | 7 | PADANG TERAP | 45428 | MALAY | RURAL | BN | PAS | AMANAH |
| KEDAH | 8 | POKOK SENA | 87125 | MALAY | RURAL | PAS | PAS | AMANAH |
| KEDAH | 9 | ALOR STAR | 73157 | MALAY | URBAN | PKR | PKR | PKR |
| KEDAH | 10 | KUALA KEDAH | 99914 | MALAY | RURAL | PKR | PKR | PKR |
| KEDAH | 11 | PENDANG | 74091 | MALAY | RURAL | BN | PAS | PPBM |
| KEDAH | 12 | JERAI | 78938 | MALAY | RURAL | BN | PAS | PPBM |
| KEDAH | 13 | SIK | 49334 | MALAY | RURAL | BN | PAS | AMANAH |
| KEDAH | 14 | MERBOK | 93260 | MALAY | SEMI URBAN | BN | PKR | PKR |
| KEDAH | 15 | SUNGAI PETANI | 100394 | MALAY | SEMI URBAN | PKR | PKR | PKR |
| KEDAH | 16 | BALING | 104099 | MALAY | RURAL | BN | PAS | PPBM |
| KEDAH | 17 | PADANG SERAI | 81134 | MALAY | SEMI URBAN | PKR | PKR | PKR |
| KEDAH | 18 | KULIM-BANDAR BAHARU | 64732 | MALAY | SEMI URBAN | BN | PKR | PKR |
| KELANTAN | 19 | TUMPAT | 108510 | MALAY | RURAL | PAS | PAS | PPBM |
| KELANTAN | 20 | PENGKALAN CHEPA | 71826 | MALAY | SEMI URBAN | PAS | PAS | AMANAH |
| KELANTAN | 21 | KOTA BHARU | 87169 | MALAY | URBAN | PAS | PAS | AMANAH |
| KELANTAN | 22 | PASIR MAS | 77170 | MALAY | RURAL | PAS | PAS | PKR |
| KELANTAN | 23 | RANTAU PANJANG | 57279 | MALAY | RURAL | PAS | PAS | AMANAH |
| KELANTAN | 24 | KUBANG KERIAN | 72250 | MALAY | RURAL | PAS | PAS | AMANAH |
| KELANTAN | 25 | BACHOK | 89923 | MALAY | SEMI URBAN | PAS | PAS | PPBM |
| KELANTAN | 26 | KETEREH | 70000 | MALAY | RURAL | BN | PKR | PPBM |
| KELANTAN | 27 | TANAH MERAH | 69755 | MALAY | RURAL | BN | PKR | PKR |
| KELANTAN | 28 | PASIR PUTEH | 82905 | MALAY | RURAL | PAS | PAS | PPBM |
| KELANTAN | 29 | MACHANG | 67381 | MALAY | RURAL | BN | PKR | PPBM |
| KELANTAN | 30 | JELI | 47761 | MALAY | RURAL | BN | PAS | PPBM |
| KELANTAN | 31 | KUALA KRAI | 69259 | MALAY | RURAL | PAS | PAS | AMANAH |
| KELANTAN | 32 | GUA MUSANG | 45898 | MALAY | RURAL | BN | PAS | PPBM |
| TERENGGANU | 33 | BESUT | 83946 | MALAY | SEMI URBAN | BN | PAS | PPBM |
| TERENGGANU | 34 | SETIU | 75980 | MALAY | RURAL | BN | PAS | PPBM |
| TERENGGANU | 35 | KUALA NERUS | 88644 | MALAY | RURAL | PAS | PAS | AMANAH |
| TERENGGANU | 36 | KUALA TERENGGANU | 101847 | MALAY | URBAN | PAS | PAS | AMANAH |
| TERENGGANU | 37 | MARANG | 102554 | MALAY | RURAL | PAS | PAS | AMANAH |
| TERENGGANU | 38 | HULU TERENGGANU | 72035 | MALAY | RURAL | BN | PAS | PPBM |
| TERENGGANU | 39 | DUNGUN | 88346 | MALAY | SEMI URBAN | PAS | PAS | PKR |
| TERENGGANU | 40 | KEMAMAN | 105113 | MALAY | SEMI URBAN | BN | PKR | PKR |
| PULAU PINANG | 41 | KEPALA BATAS | 58863 | MALAY | RURAL | BN | PAS | AMANAH |
| PULAU PINANG | 42 | TASEK GELUGOR | 58883 | MALAY | RURAL | BN | PAS | PPBM |
| PULAU PINANG | 43 | BAGAN | 71405 | CHINESE | URBAN | DAP | DAP | DAP |
| PULAU PINANG | 44 | PERMATANG PAUH | 80042 | MALAY | SEMI URBAN | PKR | PKR | PKR |
| PULAU PINANG | 45 | BUKIT MERTAJAM | 86951 | CHINESE | SEMI URBAN | DAP | DAP | DAP |
| PULAU PINANG | 46 | BATU KAWAN | 63621 | CHINESE | SEMI URBAN | DAP | DAP | DAP |
| PULAU PINANG | 47 | NIBONG TEBAL | 68866 | MIXED | RURAL | PKR | PKR | PKR |
| PULAU PINANG | 48 | BUKIT BENDERA | 74638 | CHINESE | SEMI URBAN | DAP | DAP | DAP |
| PULAU PINANG | 49 | TANJONG | 50147 | CHINESE | URBAN | DAP | DAP | DAP |
| PULAU PINANG | 50 | JELUTONG | 76242 | CHINESE | URBAN | DAP | DAP | DAP |
| PULAU PINANG | 51 | BUKIT GELUGOR | 90528 | CHINESE | SEMI URBAN | DAP | DAP | DAP |
| PULAU PINANG | 52 | BAYAN BARU | 89177 | MIXED | SEMI URBAN | PKR | PKR | PKR |
| PULAU PINANG | 53 | BALIK PULAU | 57545 | MALAY | RURAL | BN | PKR | PKR |
| PERAK | 54 | GERIK | 35602 | MALAY | RURAL | BN | PAS | PPBM |
| PERAK | 55 | LENGGONG | 29392 | MALAY | RURAL | BN | PAS | PPBM |
| PERAK | 56 | LARUT | 48826 | MALAY | RURAL | BN | PAS | PPBM |
| PERAK | 57 | PARIT BUNTAR | 52657 | MALAY | RURAL | PAS | PAS | AMANAH |
| PERAK | 58 | BAGAN SERAI | 57777 | MALAY | RURAL | BN | PKR | PPBM |
| PERAK | 59 | BUKIT GANTANG | 77361 | MALAY | RURAL | PAS | PAS | AMANAH |
| PERAK | 60 | TAIPING | 81896 | MIXED | URBAN | DAP | DAP | DAP |
| PERAK | 61 | PADANG RENGAS | 30583 | MALAY | RURAL | BN | PKR | PKR |
| PERAK | 62 | SUNGAI SIPUT | 53611 | MIXED | SEMI URBAN | PKR | PKR | PKR |
| PERAK | 63 | TAMBUN | 100522 | MALAY | SEMI URBAN | BN | PKR | PPBM |
| PERAK | 64 | IPOH TIMOR | 81509 | CHINESE | URBAN | DAP | DAP | DAP |
| PERAK | 65 | IPOH BARAT | 79739 | CHINESE | URBAN | DAP | DAP | DAP |
| PERAK | 66 | BATU GAJAH | 86519 | CHINESE | URBAN | DAP | DAP | DAP |
| PERAK | 67 | KUALA KANGSAR | 36301 | MALAY | SEMI URBAN | BN | PAS | PPBM |
| PERAK | 68 | BERUAS | 49740 | CHINESE | RURAL | DAP | DAP | DAP |
| PERAK | 69 | PARIT | 35260 | MALAY | RURAL | BN | PAS | AMANAH |
| PERAK | 70 | KAMPAR | 65745 | CHINESE | SEMI URBAN | DAP | DAP | DAP |
| PERAK | 71 | GOPENG | 109108 | MIXED | SEMI URBAN | PKR | PKR | PKR |
| PERAK | 72 | TAPAH | 49657 | MIXED | RURAL | BN | PKR | PPBM |
| PERAK | 73 | PASIR SALAK | 54121 | MALAY | RURAL | BN | PKR | PPBM |
| PERAK | 74 | LUMUT | 95339 | MALAY | SEMI URBAN | PKR | PKR | AMANAH |
| PERAK | 75 | BAGAN DATOK | 44376 | MALAY | RURAL | BN | PKR | PKR |
| PERAK | 76 | TELOK INTAN | 65155 | MIXED | SEMI URBAN | DAP | DAP | DAP |
| PERAK | 77 | TANJONG MALIM | 67601 | MALAY | RURAL | BN | PKR | PKR |
| PAHANG | 78 | CAMERON HIGHLANDS | 31369 | MIXED | RURAL | BN | DAP | DAP |
| PAHANG | 79 | LIPIS | 34327 | MALAY | RURAL | BN | PAS | PPBM |
| PAHANG | 80 | RAUB | 56905 | MALAY | RURAL | DAP | DAP | DAP |
| PAHANG | 81 | JERANTUT | 61779 | MALAY | RURAL | BN | PAS | PPBM |
| PAHANG | 82 | INDERA MAHKOTA | 73081 | MALAY | SEMI URBAN | PKR | PKR | PKR |
| PAHANG | 83 | KUANTAN | 61032 | MALAY | URBAN | PKR | PKR | PKR |
| PAHANG | 84 | PAYA BESAR | 53397 | MALAY | RURAL | BN | PKR | PPBM |
| PAHANG | 85 | PEKAN | 86176 | MALAY | RURAL | BN | PKR | PPBM |
| PAHANG | 86 | MARAN | 40323 | MALAY | RURAL | BN | PAS | PPBM |
| PAHANG | 87 | KUALA KRAU | 45705 | MALAY | RURAL | BN | PAS | PPBM |
| PAHANG | 88 | TEMERLOH | 72480 | MALAY | SEMI URBAN | PAS | PAS | AMANAH |
| PAHANG | 89 | BENTONG | 65910 | MIXED | RURAL | BN | DAP | DAP |
| PAHANG | 90 | BERA | 56442 | MALAY | RURAL | BN | PKR | PKR |
| PAHANG | 91 | ROMPIN | 59669 | MALAY | RURAL | BN | PAS | PKR |
| SELANGOR | 92 | SABAK BERNAM | 40055 | MALAY | RURAL | BN | PKR | PPBM |
| SELANGOR | 93 | SUNGAI BESAR | 50488 | MALAY | RURAL | BN | PAS | PPBM |
| SELANGOR | 94 | HULU SELANGOR | 95736 | MALAY | SEMI URBAN | BN | PKR | PKR |
| SELANGOR | 95 | TANJONG KARANG | 45794 | MALAY | RURAL | BN | PAS | PPBM |
| SELANGOR | 96 | KUALA SELANGOR | 70748 | MALAY | RURAL | BN | PAS | AMANAH |
| SELANGOR | 97 | SELAYANG | 123023 | MIXED | SEMI URBAN | PKR | PKR | PKR |
| SELANGOR | 98 | GOMBAK | 136296 | MALAY | SEMI URBAN | PKR | PKR | PKR |
| SELANGOR | 99 | AMPANG | 92487 | MALAY | SEMI URBAN | PKR | PKR | PKR |
| SELANGOR | 100 | PANDAN | 94945 | MIXED | URBAN | PKR | PKR | PKR |
| SELANGOR | 101 | HULU LANGAT | 147186 | MALAY | SEMI URBAN | PAS | PAS | AMANAH |
| SELANGOR | 102 | SERDANG | 159404 | MIXED | URBAN | DAP | DAP | DAP |
| SELANGOR | 103 | PUCHONG | 122680 | MIXED | URBAN | DAP | DAP | DAP |
| SELANGOR | 104 | KELANA JAYA | 108315 | MIXED | URBAN | PKR | PKR | PKR |
| SELANGOR | 105 | PETALING JAYA SELATAN | 82930 | MIXED | URBAN | PKR | PKR | PKR |
| SELANGOR | 106 | PETALING JAYA UTARA | 86481 | CHINESE | URBAN | DAP | DAP | DAP |
| SELANGOR | 107 | SUBANG | 146138 | MIXED | URBAN | PKR | PKR | PKR |
| SELANGOR | 108 | SHAH ALAM | 116137 | MALAY | URBAN | PAS | PAS | AMANAH |
| SELANGOR | 109 | KAPAR | 163140 | MALAY | URBAN | PKR | PKR | PKR |
| SELANGOR | 110 | KLANG | 104335 | MIXED | URBAN | DAP | DAP | DAP |
| SELANGOR | 111 | KOTA RAJA | 126080 | MIXED | URBAN | PAS | PAS | AMANAH |
| SELANGOR | 112 | KUALA LANGAT | 98553 | MALAY | SEMI URBAN | PKR | PKR | PKR |
| SELANGOR | 113 | SEPANG | 98655 | MALAY | SEMI URBAN | PAS | PAS | AMANAH |
| W.P KUALA LUMPUR | 114 | KEPONG | 69577 | CHINESE | URBAN | DAP | DAP | DAP |
| W.P KUALA LUMPUR | 115 | BATU | 85992 | MIXED | URBAN | PKR | PKR | PKR |
| W.P KUALA LUMPUR | 116 | WANGSA MAJU | 78450 | MALAY | URBAN | PKR | PKR | PKR |
| W.P KUALA LUMPUR | 117 | SEGAMBUT | 79767 | CHINESE | URBAN | DAP | DAP | DAP |
| W.P KUALA LUMPUR | 118 | SETIAWANGSA | 68822 | MALAY | URBAN | BN | PKR | PKR |
| W.P KUALA LUMPUR | 119 | TITIWANGSA | 59677 | MALAY | URBAN | BN | PAS | PPBM |
| W.P KUALA LUMPUR | 120 | BUKIT BINTANG | 50739 | CHINESE | URBAN | DAP | DAP | DAP |
| W.P KUALA LUMPUR | 121 | LEMBAH PANTAI | 78504 | MALAY | URBAN | PKR | PKR | PKR |
| W.P KUALA LUMPUR | 122 | SEPUTEH | 87815 | CHINESE | URBAN | DAP | DAP | DAP |
| W.P KUALA LUMPUR | 123 | CHERAS | 72172 | CHINESE | URBAN | DAP | DAP | DAP |
| W.P KUALA LUMPUR | 124 | BANDAR TUN RAZAK | 98593 | MALAY | URBAN | PKR | PKR | PKR |
| W.P PUTRAJAYA | 125 | PUTRAJAYA | 23908 | MALAY | URBAN | BN | PAS | PPBM |
| NEGERI SEMBILAN | 126 | JELEBU | 47262 | MALAY | RURAL | BN | PAS | AMANAH |
| NEGERI SEMBILAN | 127 | JEMPOL | 70854 | MALAY | RURAL | BN | PAS | PPBM |
| NEGERI SEMBILAN | 128 | SEREMBAN | 112783 | MIXED | URBAN | DAP | DAP | DAP |
| NEGERI SEMBILAN | 129 | KUALA PILAH | 49195 | MALAY | SEMI URBAN | BN | PKR | PPBM |
| NEGERI SEMBILAN | 130 | RASAH | 96231 | MIXED | URBAN | DAP | DAP | DAP |
| NEGERI SEMBILAN | 131 | REMBAU | 85210 | MALAY | SEMI URBAN | BN | PKR | PKR |
| NEGERI SEMBILAN | 132 | TELOK KEMANG | 72687 | MIXED | SEMI URBAN | PKR | PKR | PKR |
| NEGERI SEMBILAN | 133 | TAMPIN | 60229 | MALAY | RURAL | BN | PAS | AMANAH |
| MELAKA | 134 | MASJID TANAH | 50184 | MALAY | RURAL | BN | PAS | PPBM |
| MELAKA | 135 | ALOR GAJAH | 68899 | MALAY | RURAL | BN | DAP | PPBM |
| MELAKA | 136 | TANGGA BATU | 82270 | MALAY | SEMI URBAN | BN | PKR | PKR |
| MELAKA | 137 | BUKIT KATIL | 112248 | MALAY | URBAN | PKR | PKR | PKR |
| MELAKA | 138 | KOTA MELAKA | 96798 | CHINESE | URBAN | DAP | DAP | DAP |
| MELAKA | 139 | JASIN | 71915 | MALAY | RURAL | BN | PKR | AMANAH |
| JOHOR | 140 | SEGAMAT | 53027 | MIXED | RURAL | BN | PKR | PKR |
| JOHOR | 141 | SEKIJANG | 44667 | MALAY | RURAL | BN | PKR | PKR |
| JOHOR | 142 | LABIS | 39838 | MIXED | RURAL | BN | DAP | DAP |
| JOHOR | 143 | PAGOH | 49585 | MALAY | RURAL | BN | PAS | PPBM |
| JOHOR | 144 | LEDANG | 75672 | MALAY | RURAL | BN | PKR | PKR |
| JOHOR | 145 | BAKRI | 72073 | CHINESE | SEMI URBAN | DAP | DAP | DAP |
| JOHOR | 146 | MUAR | 51626 | MALAY | RURAL | BN | PKR | PPBM |
| JOHOR | 147 | PARIT SULONG | 59314 | MALAY | RURAL | BN | PAS | AMANAH |
| JOHOR | 148 | AYER HITAM | 46114 | MALAY | RURAL | BN | PAS | DAP |
| JOHOR | 149 | SRI GADING | 49885 | MALAY | RURAL | BN | PKR | PPBM |
| JOHOR | 150 | BATU PAHAT | 96414 | MALAY | SEMI URBAN | PKR | PKR | PKR |
| JOHOR | 151 | SIMPANG RENGGAM | 42889 | MALAY | RURAL | BN | PAS | PPBM |
| JOHOR | 152 | KLUANG | 95280 | MIXED | SEMI URBAN | DAP | DAP | DAP |
| JOHOR | 153 | SEMBRONG | 43509 | MALAY | RURAL | BN | PKR | PKR |
| JOHOR | 154 | MERSING | 47882 | MALAY | RURAL | BN | PAS | PPBM |
| JOHOR | 155 | TENGGARA | 43730 | MALAY | RURAL | BN | PAS | PPBM |
| JOHOR | 156 | KOTA TINGGI | 46206 | MALAY | RURAL | BN | PAS | PPBM |
| JOHOR | 157 | PENGERANG | 39626 | MALAY | RURAL | BN | PKR | PPBM |
| JOHOR | 158 | TEBRAU | 116890 | MIXED | SEMI URBAN | BN | PKR | PKR |
| JOHOR | 159 | PASIR GUDANG | 119683 | MIXED | SEMI URBAN | BN | PKR | PKR |
| JOHOR | 160 | JOHOR BAHRU | 99296 | MALAY | URBAN | BN | PKR | PKR |
| JOHOR | 161 | PULAI | 112446 | MIXED | URBAN | BN | PAS | AMANAH |
| JOHOR | 162 | GELANG PATAH | 127039 | MIXED | SEMI URBAN | DAP | DAP | DAP |
| JOHOR | 163 | KULAI | 93800 | CHINESE | SEMI URBAN | DAP | DAP | DAP |
| JOHOR | 164 | PONTIAN | 50927 | MALAY | RURAL | BN | PKR | PPBM |
| JOHOR | 165 | TANJONG PIAI | 56637 | MALAY | RURAL | BN | DAP | PPBM |
10. Appendix 2: Election Simulation Results
The table below lists the result of 300 election simulations performed for each seat using straight fights between BN and the Opposition. Based on the number of winning scenarios, we calculated the odds of winning the seat as a percentage. For example, P3.ARAU was won in 87% of the simulations for Scenario 2: PH +2pt Swing with a High Risk margin.
- Point Swing to PR refers to the percentage point shift in support for PR. Negative numbers means that support in the seat shifted to BN in GE13 while positive numbers means that the support shifted to PR.
- Avg (Odds of Voting Opposition) is an average probability that we calculate as a rough guideline. This is calculated as the sum of probabilities of individuals voting BN / Opposition for each seat divided by the number of voters. Any seat with a value below 50 would require a bigger positive swing to the Opposition to win.
- For each scenario we have 2 columns: the first shows the % probability of winning. If there is no value that means the seat was won by BN. The second column shows the risk factor – even a 100% chance of victory could be due to a small winning margin.
- Any seat with a winning majority of 1 – 1,000 votes is classified as HIGH RISK
- Any seat with a winning majority of 1,001 – 2,000 votes is classified as MARGINAL RISK
| Seat Code | Name | GE14 PH Contesting Party | Point Swing to PR (GE13) | Avg (Odds of Voting Opposition) | S1: GE13 Odds | Risk Factor | S2: PR +2pt Swing | Risk Factor | S3: PR +5pt Swing | Risk Factor |
| 1 | PADANG BESAR | PPBM | -0.59 | 39.79 | ||||||
| 2 | KANGAR | PKR | 14.09 | 45.49 | 100 | High Risk | ||||
| 3 | ARAU | PPBM | -0.91 | 47.38 | 87 | High Risk | 100 | |||
| 4 | LANGKAWI | PPBM | -7.24 | 30.91 | ||||||
| 5 | JERLUN | PPBM | -0.81 | 45.99 | ||||||
| 6 | KUBANG PASU | PPBM | -1.07 | 41.46 | ||||||
| 7 | PADANG TERAP | AMANAH | -7.07 | 43.88 | 13 | High Risk | ||||
| 8 | POKOK SENA | AMANAH | -2.68 | 52.53 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |||
| 9 | ALOR STAR | PKR | 3.81 | 48.17 | 100 | Marginal | 100 | 100 | ||
| 10 | KUALA KEDAH | PKR | -2.46 | 52.95 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |||
| 11 | PENDANG | PPBM | -6.32 | 47.94 | 63 | High Risk | 100 | |||
| 12 | JERAI | PPBM | -3.08 | 48.40 | 100 | Marginal | 100 | |||
| 13 | SIK | AMANAH | -5.36 | 46.52 | 100 | Marginal | ||||
| 14 | MERBOK | PKR | -5.41 | 46.58 | 100 | |||||
| 15 | SUNGAI PETANI | PKR | -1.74 | 52.85 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |||
| 16 | BALING | PPBM | -9.17 | 47.00 | 100 | |||||
| 17 | PADANG SERAI | PKR | -3.10 | 51.32 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |||
| 18 | KULIM-BANDAR BAHARU | PKR | -8.90 | 47.12 | 100 | |||||
| 19 | TUMPAT | PPBM | -1.33 | 56.58 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |||
| 20 | PENGKALAN CHEPA | AMANAH | 0.55 | 63.80 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |||
| 21 | KOTA BHARU | AMANAH | 1.28 | 62.49 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |||
| 22 | PASIR MAS | PKR | N/A | 55.20 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |||
| 23 | RANTAU PANJANG | AMANAH | 0.63 | 57.54 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |||
| 24 | KUBANG KERIAN | AMANAH | 3.36 | 65.58 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |||
| 25 | BACHOK | PPBM | -2.40 | 50.30 | 100 | High Risk | 100 | 100 | ||
| 26 | KETEREH | PPBM | -1.71 | 49.31 | 1 | High Risk | 100 | Marginal | 100 | |
| 27 | TANAH MERAH | PKR | -8.56 | 45.61 | 100 | Marginal | ||||
| 28 | PASIR PUTEH | PPBM | -2.53 | 51.72 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |||
| 29 | MACHANG | PPBM | -2.73 | 49.38 | 5 | High Risk | 100 | Marginal | 100 | |
| 30 | JELI | PPBM | -0.35 | 43.22 | ||||||
| 31 | KUALA KRAI | AMANAH | -4.23 | 51.91 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |||
| 32 | GUA MUSANG | PPBM | -3.22 | 37.89 | ||||||
| 33 | BESUT | PPBM | 3.62 | 43.48 | ||||||
| 34 | SETIU | PPBM | 0.84 | 43.25 | ||||||
| 35 | KUALA NERUS | AMANAH | 1.30 | 50.59 | 100 | Marginal | 100 | 100 | ||
| 36 | KUALA TERENGGANU | AMANAH | 6.99 | 56.59 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |||
| 37 | MARANG | AMANAH | 1.38 | 53.28 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |||
| 38 | HULU TERENGGANU | PPBM | 4.27 | 42.50 | ||||||
| 39 | DUNGUN | PKR | 7.87 | 52.86 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |||
| 40 | KEMAMAN | PKR | 2.59 | 42.56 | ||||||
| 41 | KEPALA BATAS | AMANAH | 8.78 | 44.87 | 55 | High Risk | ||||
| 42 | TASEK GELUGOR | PPBM | 2.85 | 44.93 | 100 | Marginal | ||||
| 43 | BAGAN | DAP | 4.44 | 74.72 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |||
| 44 | PERMATANG PAUH | PKR | -3.83 | 57.21 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |||
| 45 | BUKIT MERTAJAM | DAP | 5.17 | 77.89 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |||
| 46 | BATU KAWAN | DAP | 13.97 | 69.34 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |||
| 47 | NIBONG TEBAL | PKR | 3.62 | 54.25 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |||
| 48 | BUKIT BENDERA | DAP | 9.57 | 75.81 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |||
| 49 | TANJONG | DAP | 8.83 | 82.47 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |||
| 50 | JELUTONG | DAP | 3.64 | 69.72 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |||
| 51 | BUKIT GELUGOR | DAP | 7.58 | 77.86 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |||
| 52 | BAYAN BARU | PKR | 1.87 | 60.79 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |||
| 53 | BALIK PULAU | PKR | -3.45 | 47.78 | 42 | High Risk | 100 | |||
| 54 | GERIK | PPBM | 0.71 | 38.72 | ||||||
| 55 | LENGGONG | PPBM | 5.82 | 41.10 | ||||||
| 56 | LARUT | PPBM | -4.17 | 43.35 | ||||||
| 57 | PARIT BUNTAR | AMANAH | -0.91 | 58.18 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |||
| 58 | BAGAN SERAI | PPBM | -5.89 | 47.14 | 86 | High Risk | 100 | |||
| 59 | BUKIT GANTANG | AMANAH | -2.43 | 50.04 | 73 | High Risk | 100 | 100 | ||
| 60 | TAIPING | DAP | -2.57 | 57.67 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |||
| 61 | PADANG RENGAS | PKR | -0.20 | 45.65 | 100 | High Risk | ||||
| 62 | SUNGAI SIPUT | PKR | -0.50 | 51.16 | 100 | Marginal | 100 | 100 | ||
| 63 | TAMBUN | PPBM | -1.49 | 44.27 | ||||||
| 64 | IPOH TIMOR | DAP | 5.65 | 75.32 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |||
| 65 | IPOH BARAT | DAP | 6.87 | 71.28 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |||
| 66 | BATU GAJAH | DAP | 5.44 | 75.56 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |||
| 67 | KUALA KANGSAR | PPBM | 1.24 | 46.53 | 100 | Marginal | ||||
| 68 | BERUAS | DAP | 3.33 | 55.79 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |||
| 69 | PARIT | AMANAH | -2.16 | 42.45 | ||||||
| 70 | KAMPAR | DAP | 8.33 | 55.60 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |||
| 71 | GOPENG | PKR | 2.78 | 58.03 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |||
| 72 | TAPAH | PPBM | -2.06 | 39.16 | ||||||
| 73 | PASIR SALAK | PPBM | -4.70 | 41.17 | ||||||
| 74 | LUMUT | AMANAH | 2.29 | 53.57 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |||
| 75 | BAGAN DATOK | PKR | 1.14 | 45.58 | 100 | High Risk | ||||
| 76 | TELOK INTAN | DAP | 4.55 | 54.74 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |||
| 77 | TANJONG MALIM | PKR | 1.46 | 45.54 | 100 | High Risk | ||||
| 78 | CAMERON HIGHLANDS | DAP | 9.57 | 45.75 | 1 | High Risk | 100 | Marginal | ||
| 79 | LIPIS | PPBM | 2.67 | 43.32 | ||||||
| 80 | RAUB | DAP | 6.51 | 52.02 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |||
| 81 | JERANTUT | PPBM | -2.20 | 45.39 | 100 | High Risk | ||||
| 82 | INDERA MAHKOTA | PKR | 5.08 | 55.98 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |||
| 83 | KUANTAN | PKR | 2.09 | 53.75 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |||
| 84 | PAYA BESAR | PPBM | 4.27 | 40.16 | ||||||
| 85 | PEKAN | PPBM | 0.73 | 24.31 | ||||||
| 86 | MARAN | PPBM | 2.39 | 40.15 | ||||||
| 87 | KUALA KRAU | PPBM | 0.25 | 41.83 | ||||||
| 88 | TEMERLOH | AMANAH | 3.09 | 50.02 | 85 | High Risk | 100 | 100 | ||
| 89 | BENTONG | DAP | 12.83 | 49.18 | 100 | Marginal | 100 | |||
| 90 | BERA | PKR | 5.38 | 46.30 | 100 | |||||
| 91 | ROMPIN | PKR | -0.40 | 33.55 | ||||||
| 92 | SABAK BERNAM | PPBM | -1.11 | 46.61 | 100 | Marginal | ||||
| 93 | SUNGAI BESAR | PPBM | 7.24 | 48.92 | 2 | High Risk | 100 | Marginal | 100 | |
| 94 | HULU SELANGOR | PKR | -2.32 | 45.65 | 100 | |||||
| 95 | TANJONG KARANG | PPBM | 0.79 | 43.25 | ||||||
| 96 | KUALA SELANGOR | AMANAH | -1.60 | 49.05 | 1 | High Risk | 100 | Marginal | 100 | |
| 97 | SELAYANG | PKR | 5.45 | 54.02 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |||
| 98 | GOMBAK | PKR | -2.14 | 51.24 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |||
| 99 | AMPANG | PKR | 4.82 | 57.36 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |||
| 100 | PANDAN | PKR | 18.92 | 64.07 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |||
| 101 | HULU LANGAT | AMANAH | 4.88 | 55.54 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |||
| 102 | SERDANG | DAP | 4.84 | 64.30 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |||
| 103 | PUCHONG | DAP | 4.76 | 62.72 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |||
| 104 | KELANA JAYA | PKR | 7.54 | 61.95 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |||
| 105 | PETALING JAYA SELATAN | PKR | 8.91 | 60.57 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |||
| 106 | PETALING JAYA UTARA | DAP | 12.30 | 79.34 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |||
| 107 | SUBANG | PKR | 6.69 | 58.23 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |||
| 108 | SHAH ALAM | AMANAH | -1.17 | 54.82 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |||
| 109 | KAPAR | PKR | 4.53 | 53.19 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |||
| 110 | KLANG | DAP | 0.99 | 60.22 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |||
| 111 | KOTA RAJA | AMANAH | -0.10 | 59.09 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |||
| 112 | KUALA LANGAT | PKR | 2.25 | 51.45 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |||
| 113 | SEPANG | AMANAH | 4.46 | 48.77 | 61 | High Risk | 100 | 100 | ||
| 114 | KEPONG | DAP | 11.64 | 81.70 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |||
| 115 | BATU | PKR | 0.82 | 56.59 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |||
| 116 | WANGSA MAJU | PKR | 2.92 | 52.86 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |||
| 117 | SEGAMBUT | DAP | 4.88 | 63.52 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |||
| 118 | SETIAWANGSA | PKR | 1.63 | 46.00 | 100 | Marginal | ||||
| 119 | TITIWANGSA | PPBM | -3.16 | 47.95 | 22 | High Risk | 100 | |||
| 120 | BUKIT BINTANG | DAP | 3.81 | 73.36 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |||
| 121 | LEMBAH PANTAI | PKR | -1.89 | 47.90 | 8 | High Risk | 100 | |||
| 122 | SEPUTEH | DAP | 4.34 | 85.07 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |||
| 123 | CHERAS | DAP | 3.82 | 80.35 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |||
| 124 | BANDAR TUN RAZAK | PKR | 4.21 | 55.23 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |||
| 125 | PUTRAJAYA | PPBM | -3.03 | 34.99 | ||||||
| 126 | JELEBU | AMANAH | 9.03 | 40.91 | ||||||
| 127 | JEMPOL | PPBM | 7.97 | 41.49 | ||||||
| 128 | SEREMBAN | DAP | 7.62 | 51.72 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |||
| 129 | KUALA PILAH | PPBM | 2.49 | 38.06 | ||||||
| 130 | RASAH | DAP | 3.84 | 60.66 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |||
| 131 | REMBAU | PKR | -7.36 | 36.59 | ||||||
| 132 | TELOK KEMANG | PKR | -3.13 | 49.51 | 100 | Marginal | 100 | |||
| 133 | TAMPIN | AMANAH | 3.76 | 37.12 | ||||||
| 134 | MASJID TANAH | PPBM | -2.05 | 29.78 | ||||||
| 135 | ALOR GAJAH | PPBM | 3.15 | 39.20 | ||||||
| 136 | TANGGA BATU | PKR | 0.05 | 38.27 | ||||||
| 137 | BUKIT KATIL | PKR | 3.40 | 51.86 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |||
| 138 | KOTA MELAKA | DAP | 5.68 | 61.51 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |||
| 139 | JASIN | AMANAH | 2.97 | 39.60 | ||||||
| 140 | SEGAMAT | PKR | 4.82 | 48.40 | 100 | High Risk | 100 | |||
| 141 | SEKIJANG | PKR | 12.18 | 44.42 | ||||||
| 142 | LABIS | DAP | 5.70 | 48.82 | 100 | High Risk | 100 | |||
| 143 | PAGOH | PPBM | 4.41 | 34.34 | ||||||
| 144 | LEDANG | PKR | 5.69 | 47.58 | 42 | High Risk | 100 | |||
| 145 | BAKRI | DAP | 2.63 | 53.74 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |||
| 146 | MUAR | PPBM | 4.98 | 47.78 | 74 | High Risk | 100 | |||
| 147 | PARIT SULONG | AMANAH | 5.01 | 37.71 | ||||||
| 148 | AYER HITAM | DAP | 14.24 | 40.46 | ||||||
| 149 | SRI GADING | PPBM | 9.97 | 43.00 | ||||||
| 150 | BATU PAHAT | PKR | 11.67 | 50.09 | 100 | High Risk | 100 | 100 | ||
| 151 | SIMPANG RENGGAM | PPBM | 4.72 | 40.92 | ||||||
| 152 | KLUANG | DAP | 6.34 | 53.49 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |||
| 153 | SEMBRONG | PKR | 8.02 | 35.38 | ||||||
| 154 | MERSING | PPBM | 3.95 | 29.27 | ||||||
| 155 | TENGGARA | PPBM | -0.93 | 26.25 | ||||||
| 156 | KOTA TINGGI | PPBM | 1.91 | 16.48 | ||||||
| 157 | PENGERANG | PPBM | -22.81 | 14.24 | ||||||
| 158 | TEBRAU | PKR | 14.74 | 52.34 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |||
| 159 | PASIR GUDANG | PKR | 10.80 | 48.35 | 100 | Marginal | 100 | |||
| 160 | JOHOR BAHRU | PKR | 13.01 | 43.53 | ||||||
| 161 | PULAI | AMANAH | 12.22 | 47.79 | 98 | High Risk | 100 | |||
| 162 | GELANG PATAH | DAP | 11.38 | 55.23 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |||
| 163 | KULAI | DAP | 17.16 | 57.23 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |||
| 164 | PONTIAN | PPBM | 5.94 | 33.45 | ||||||
| 165 | TANJONG PIAI | PPBM | 10.74 | 43.57 |
