1. Introduction

This document provides a measurement of the political party interests of Facebook users in Malaysia. This is based on public information collected from Facebook.

Some important notes to remember when interpreting Facebook figures:

1. Total population refers to Facebook users aged 13 years and above.
2. Potential voters refer to Facebook users aged 21 years and above.
3. Youth refers to Facebook users aged 13 – 20 years.
4. Gender breakdown figures do not always add up to the total. This may be due to Facebook users not sharing their gender, and also due to rounding errors in statistics provided by Facebook. State breakdown figures also do not add up to the total due to the same rounding errors.
5. Detailed statistics on Putrajaya are not available due to the small number of users in the territory.
6. Figures provided by Facebook are estimates. Some inaccuracies are to be expected, e.g. the sum of state totals not being equal to the national total.
7. Facebook users residing in Malaysia are not necessarily Malaysian citizens.
8. Interest in a topic is equal to the number of users expressing interest in a topic.
   1. To measure interest we used a combination of Facebook Interests (a collection of interests, activities, groups, pages, status updates and job history identified by a common term determined by Facebook e.g. ‘United Malays National Organization’) and specific Group and Page names (e.g. Friends of BN).
   2. These are used to collect the number of users interested in a given party/coalition/politician/group. For example, a user mentioning a party name in a status update; sharing a news link related to the party or sharing content from a party-affiliated page would count towards the total interest in that party
   3. Interest in a political party does not indicate support for the party, only awareness
   4. It is currently assumed that interest in PAS includes some interest in AMANAH as PAS leaders and members migrated to AMANAH
9. Audience refers to the population of users that express interest in a topic. Unless indicated, the audiences used in this report are composed of potential voters (users in Malaysia aged 21 years and above).
10. Based on our research to date, Pages that are of type ‘politician’ are not always included under related Facebook Topics. For example, not all ‘Tony Pua’ (MP, PJ Utara, DAP) Page likes are included under interest in ‘DAP’. However, because Facebook does not make Topic details available we cannot easily determine which politicians, if any, were included.
11. Statistics on the Opposition primarily refer to component parties of the former Pakatan Rakyat – PKR, PAS and DAP. This includes the ‘Pakatan’ brand name.
12. July 2017 statistics were collected during a 2-week period in July 2017. As such there may be some differences in totals for political parties when comparing different sections due to changes in collected statistics.
13. Statistics on the 2017 1^st Quarter electoral roll are estimates based on published changes to the 2016 gazetted roll. Ethnic breakdown for new voters are based on profiling methods that we developed and should be considered estimates.

2. List of Acronyms

The following table shows a list of acronyms used in this document.

Acronym	Full name
PR	Pakatan Rakyat
PH	Pakatan Harapan
BN	Barisan Nasional
UMNO	United Malays National Organisation
GERAKAN	Parti Gerakan Rakyat Malaysia (also known as PGRM)
MCA	Malaysian Chinese Association
MIC	Malaysian Indian Congress
PBB	Parti Pesaka Bumiputra Bersatu Sarawak
PKR	Parti Keadilan Rakyat
DAP	Democratic Action Party
AMANAH	Parti Amanah Negara
PAS	Parti Islam Se-Malaysia
PPBM	Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia

3. An Overview of Malaysia’s Facebook User Population (July 2017)

3.1 Division by Age and Gender

There are currently 24 million Facebook users in Malaysia. 54.17% are men and 45.83% are women.

From this total, 19 million users are aged 21 years and above. 52.63% are men and 47.37% are women. These are the potential voters on Facebook.

The chart below shows the population distribution by age group. The largest segment of the population is aged between 21 – 30 years.

The table below shows the distribution of Facebook users by state, sorted by the total population:

State	Total (13+ yrs)	Male (%)	Female (%)	% of Malaysia
Perlis	40,000	52.50	47.50	0.17
Labuan	170,000	52.35	46.47	0.71
Kelantan	290,000	51.72	44.83	1.21
Terengganu	370,000	51.35	48.65	1.54
Negeri Sembilan	380,000	55.26	47.37	1.58
Melaka	390,000	53.85	46.15	1.63
Pahang	500,000	54.00	48.00	2.08
Kedah	610,000	54.10	47.54	2.54
Perak	880,000	51.14	48.86	3.67
Penang	990,000	51.52	48.48	4.13
Sabah	1,000,000	53.00	47.00	4.17
Sarawak	1,100,000	51.82	45.45	4.58
Johor	1,900,000	57.89	45.79	7.92
KL + Selangor	15,000,000	56.67	42.67	62.50

 

The table below shows the distribution of Facebook users by state aged 21 years and above.

State	Total (>=21 yrs)	Male (%)	Female (%)	% of Msia (>=21 yrs)	% of State (>=21 yrs)
Perlis	33,000	51.52	48.48	0.17	82.50
Labuan	140,000	52.14	45.71	0.74	82.35
Kelantan	230,000	52.17	43.48	1.21	79.31
Terengganu	290,000	51.72	48.28	1.53	78.38
Negeri Sembilan	310,000	54.84	48.39	1.63	81.58
Melaka	320,000	53.13	46.88	1.68	82.05
Pahang	400,000	55.00	47.50	2.11	80.00
Kedah	490,000	53.06	46.94	2.58	80.33
Perak	710,000	50.70	47.89	3.74	80.68
Sabah	790,000	53.16	46.84	4.16	79.00
Penang	840,000	50.00	47.62	4.42	84.85
Sarawak	840,000	53.57	46.43	4.42	76.36
Johor	1,600,000	55.00	45.00	8.42	84.21
KL + Selangor	12,000,000	56.67	44.17	63.16	80.00

 

Based on the last column we can see that Sarawak, Terengganu, Kelantan and Sabah have the highest proportion of young users (below 21 years).

As of 2017 Quarter 1, an estimated 21.64% of registered voters reside in KL and Selangor. In the National Census 2010, 24.35% of Malaysia’s citizens and 24.11% of Malaysia’s total population reside in KL and Selangor.

However according to statistics from Facebook, 62.50% of Facebook users in Malaysia reside in KL and Selangor. This includes Malaysians and foreigners who live there. This is an increase from 50% in August 2016.

The heavy concentration of users in KL and Selangor means that trending content in Malaysia in terms of shares and likes might not reflect what the country is talking about. When it comes to the analysis of interest in local issues such as politics, it is therefore important to evaluate the interests of users in different states.

3.2 Division by Language

The chart below shows the number of potential voters by language used on Facebook, based on information they have shared with Facebook:

Hindi/Tamil = users who use Hindi or Tamil. Only 20 thousand users use both languages

If we added the totals together there would be 30 million users. Given that there are only 19 million Facebook users, there is an overlap between users from each group. Many users speak multiple languages.

93% of potential voters on Facebook use English, Malay or Chinese languages. Because of this high coverage, we were able to design a set of formulas to break up these users into smaller, identifiable groups based on different combinations of spoken languages. The population of users in these groups can then be estimated. The results of this analysis are in the table below:

Language Group	Code	% of Population (>=21 years)	Description
Bilingual Malay + English	BME	40.26	Users who speak Malay and English. May also speak other languages except Chinese.
English Only / English + Other languages	EO	19.21	Users who speak English but do not speak Malay or Chinese. May also speak other languages.
Malay Only / Malay + Other languages	MO	13.95	Users who speak Malay but do not speak English or Chinese. May also speak other languages.
Bilingual Chinese + English	BCE	12.37	Users who speak both Chinese and English. May also speak other languages except Malay.
Other Languages Only	OTH	7.11	Users who do not speak English, Malay or Chinese
Chinese Only / Chinese + Other languages	CO	3.42	Users who speak Chinese but do not speak English or Malay. May also speak other languages.
Bilingual Malay + Chinese	BMC	1.84	Users who speak both Malay and Chinese. May also speak other languages except English.
Trilingual Malay + English + Chinese	TRI	1.84	Users who speak English, Malay and Chinese. May also speak other languages.

 

The proportion of each group is summarised in the chart below.

From the chart we can observe that:

• The Bilingual Malay + English (BME) group is both the largest group of users and largest subset of Malay speakers in the country
• Most Malay speakers on Facebook understand English
• The Bilingual Chinese + English (BCE) group is the 4^th largest group of users and largest subset of Chinese speakers in the country
• Most Chinese speakers on Facebook understand English
• A minority of users (3.68%, 700 thousand) speak combinations of Malay and Chinese

While Facebook allows us to collect statistics on users by language, it does not tell us their level of proficiency or what their primary language is. This is why we highlight the fact that users in each group may speak languages other than what is stated. The impact of foreigners in our data can be minimised if we analyse topics that are of primary interest to Malaysians.

Hindi and Tamil languages could not be included in our formula because of the small size of their audience (680 thousand). Some of these users would be covered under the language groups above if they also speak English, Malay or Chinese. The rest would be included under the ‘Other languages only’ group.

The table below shows the distribution of Facebook users by state aged 21 years and above.

State	BME	BCE	EO	MO	CO	BMC	TRI	OTH
Perlis	53.95	6.58	9.21	19.74	1.32	1.32	1.32	6.56
Labuan	53.13	15.63	9.38	9.38	3.13	3.13	3.13	3.09
Kelantan	58.15	4.81	6.30	24.81	1.00	1.11	1.11	2.71
Terengganu	61.56	1.00	8.44	20.94	1.00	4.06	1.00	2.00
Negeri Sembilan	43.79	16.82	16.52	10.45	4.39	1.67	1.67	4.69
Melaka	45.15	18.48	14.85	8.79	2.73	3.33	3.33	3.34
Pahang	49.52	12.38	9.05	16.19	1.90	2.86	2.86	5.24
Kedah	50.96	14.42	8.65	14.42	1.00	2.88	2.88	4.79
Perak	36.67	20.67	14.00	11.33	6.00	2.00	3.33	6.00
Sabah	52.47	8.02	9.26	21.60	1.00	3.09	1.85	2.71
Penang	30.00	31.18	19.41	4.12	2.94	2.94	2.94	6.47
Sarawak	45.29	17.06	8.82	12.35	2.94	2.94	2.94	7.66
Johor	32.35	20.59	14.12	8.24	8.24	3.53	3.53	9.40
KL + Selangor	35.00	10.83	25.00	17.50	1.00	3.33	1.00	6.34

 

The language groups for each state are shown in the chart below, apart from the Other languages group:

Observations:

• The Bilingual Malay + English (BME) group is the largest group in each state except Penang
• The states with the highest percentage of Malay Only (MO) users are Kelantan (24.81%); Sabah (21.60%); Terengganu (20.94%) and Perlis (19.74%).
• The states with the highest percentage of English Only (EO) users are KL+Selangor (25%); Penang (19.41%); and Negeri Sembilan (16.52%).
• The states with the highest percentage of Bilingual Chinese + English (BCE) users are Penang (31.18%); Perak (20.67%); Johor (20.59%); and Melaka (18.48%).

For reference here is the ethnic breakdown by state from the National Census 2010:

State	Malay (%)	Chinese (%)	Indian (%)	Other Bumiputera (%)	Others (%)	Malay + Bumiputera (%)
Perlis	85.94	9.51	1.22	0.33	2.99	86.27
Labuan	44.61	15.98	1.28	34.82	3.31	79.43
Kelantan	94.61	3.32	0.25	0.85	0.98	95.45
Terengganu	96.78	2.41	0.22	0.33	0.26	97.11
Negeri Sembilan	58.49	23.85	15.61	1.60	0.45	60.09
Melaka	65.75	26.35	6.23	1.16	0.51	66.91
Pahang	72.96	16.20	4.75	5.28	0.82	78.24
Kedah	77.63	13.58	6.74	0.21	1.85	77.84
Perak	54.88	29.65	12.52	2.57	0.37	57.45
Sabah	15.40	12.46	0.49	65.73	5.92	81.13
Penang	44.74	43.98	10.39	0.45	0.44	45.20
Sarawak	23.28	26.19	0.19	50.12	0.22	73.40
Johor	57.16	33.61	7.17	1.41	0.65	58.57
KL + Selangor	52.49	31.73	13.10	0.02	0.01	52.51

 

The states with the highest percentage of Malay & Bumiputera citizens are Terengganu (97%), Kelantan (96%), Perlis (86%) and Sabah (81%). These are also the states with the highest concentration of Malay Only users.

The states with the highest percentage of Chinese citizens are Penang (44%), Johor (34%), KL + Selangor (32%), Perak (30%) and Melaka (26%). Apart from KL + Selangor, these states have the highest concentration of Bilingual Chinese + English (BCE) users.

Despite some similarities, it is important to note that on Facebook not all Malay speakers are ethnically Malay, Bumiputera Sarawak or Bumiputera Sabah; and not all Chinese speakers are ethnically Chinese.

However it is safe to assume that most ethnic Malays in Peninsular Malaysia can be found in the BME and MO groups. When it comes to politics the patterns on Facebook user interest by language are similar to what we have seen on Twitter and in previous general election results.

 

4. Interest in Political Parties on Facebook

4.1 National Partisanship

The following graph shows the partisanship of interest in political parties by Facebook users in Malaysia aged 21 years and above. Interest in PAS is assumed to include some interest in AMANAH because existing PAS leaders and members migrated to (or in Facebook terms – took interest in) AMANAH. Facebook has not made separate AMANAH figures available yet.

Out of 6.4 million users in Malaysia (aged 21 years and above) that are interested in BN or Opposition parties in July 2017:

• 56.25% are male and 43.75% are female. Politics draws more interest from men, though it should be noted that 52.63% of the total 19 million potential voters are male
• 3.1 million are interested in Opposition parties. 61.29% are male and 38.71% are female
• 5.8 million are interested in BN parties. 55.17% are male and 44.83% are female
• 9.38% (600 thousand) are exclusively interested in Opposition parties
• 39.06% (2.5 million) are interested in a mix of Opposition and BN parties
• 51.56% (3.3 million) are exclusively interested in BN parties

The Opposition started to improve its exclusive share in January 2017, hitting a peak of 16.39% in May. Interest in the Opposition has dropped by 7.01 points in the last 2 months while interest in BN has increased by 5.66 points. 

 

4.2 Understanding Partisanship of Interest

Using Facebook’s Audience Measurement tool, we can calculate the division of interest for users who are interested in political parties. In 2012 we defined 3 groups of users:

• Opposition Only (Opposition exclusive)
  • Users who only like or show interest in Opposition parties or the ‘Pakatan’ brand
• Mixed
  • Users who are interested in both BN and the Opposition
• BN Only (BN exclusive)
  • Users who only like or show interest in BN component parties or the ‘Barisan Nasional’ brand

The exclusive groups indicate the percentage of users who are effectively living in a ‘bubble’ – they only like, share or discuss content related to their side. This can be either positive or negative. Political party supporters who are dedicated to promoting or attacking only one side would fall into this group.

When the Mixed interest group is the largest group, that would mean that most users are actively engaged in talking about or sharing content related to both sides of the political divide. Again, this can be either positive or negative.

When one exclusive group becomes the dominant group, this places greater pressure on the other exclusive group to ‘reach across’ and bring users over to their side, or at least over to the Mixed group. This is the difficulty currently being faced by the Opposition.

An exclusive group’s lowest point represents its hardcore supporters – the portion of the market that can’t be converted. Since November 2012, the Opposition’s lowest point was September 2016 where they had an exclusive share of 4.08%. BN’s lowest point was August 2013 where they had an exclusive share of 23%.

Market reach is another important factor to consider. There are 2 markets – the 6.4 million potential voters who are already interested in politics; and the total 19 million potential voters.

For potential voters interested in politics, this is equal to exclusive interest + Mixed interest:

• Opposition market reach = 9.38 + 39.06 = 48.44% of potential voters interested in politics
• BN market reach = 51.56 + 39.06 = 90.62% of potential voters interested in politics

For all potential voters, total market reach is equal to the number of users interested in the party divided by the total potential voters:

• Total users interested in political parties = 6.4M / 19M * 100 = 68% of potential voters
• Opposition total market reach = 3.1M / 19M * 100 = 32% of potential voters
• BN total market reach = 5.8 /19M * 100 = 53% of potential voters

The Opposition has a reach of 48.44% of the total market of political party interest. This means over half of potential voters on Facebook interested in politics have no interest in what Opposition leaders and supporters are sharing and doing (in the media).

Users who are in a bubble are not aware of changes or announcements being made by the other side. For the Opposition their main challenge will be getting users to like their Pages; join their Groups; and champion issues that will improve their market reach. The difficulty of this challenge varies by state and language group, which will be explained in the following sections of this report.

 

4.3 Interest by Political Party

The following chart shows the number of Facebook users in Malaysia interested in each political party, aged 21 years and above.

This table lists the breakdown by gender. Please note that male and female figures might not add up to the total due to rounding issues with Facebook’s figures.

Party	Total	% Market Share (out of 6.4 million users)	Male	Female	Male (%)	Female (%)
DAP	1,300,000	20.31	860,000	450,000	66.15	34.62
PKR	1,800,000	28.13	1,200,000	550,000	66.67	30.56
PAS	950,000	14.84	590,000	350,000	62.11	36.84
UMNO	4,400,000	68.75	2,500,000	1,900,000	56.82	43.18
GERAKAN	150,000	2.34	110,000	40,000	73.33	26.67
MCA	740,000	11.56	550,000	190,000	74.32	25.68
MIC	81,000	1.27	56,000	24,000	69.14	29.63

 

Based on the gender distribution, female users are less interested in Opposition parties, GERAKAN, MCA and MIC. Due to their small audience size, further analysis by state or language group on GERAKAN, MCA and MIC were not possible at this time.

 

4.4 Trends in Political Party Interest

The following graph shows the number of users interested in each party since July 2016.

Observations:

• The level of interest in UMNO took a dive from 7.7 million users in November 2016 to 5.7 million users in December 2016 until reaching 4.6 million users in January 2017. Since then it has had a steady decline to 4.3 million users in May 2017, followed by 4.5 million users in June 2017 before declining again to 4.4 million users in July 2017. The reason for this drop has not been determined.
• Between November 2016 and January 2017, UMNO lost 40% of their audience
• The total loss for UMNO since November 2016 is 43% of their audience
• Since their drop from 4.6 million users in May 2016 to 1.1 million users in August 2016, DAP hit a low point of 760 thousand users in December 2016 before interest started to pick up again.
• Between November 2016 and December 2016, DAP lost 31% of their audience
• Interest in DAP has fallen from 1.5 million users in June 2017 to 1.3 million users in July 2017.
• MCA had hit a peak of 2.8 million in November 2016, but started to lose its lead over DAP when interest dropped from 2.5 million users in December 2016 to 960 thousand users by January 2017. Interest slowly declined in the following months, reaching 740 thousand users by July 2017.
• Between November 2016 and January 2017, MCA lost 66% of their audience
• The total loss since November 2016 for MCA is 74% of their audience.
• PAS lost its lead over PKR when interest dropped from 2.3 million in July 2016 to 1.6 million in August 2016. PAS next largest drop was when interest dropped from 1.7 million in November 2016 to 920 thousand in December 2016. The current level of interest in July 2017 is 950 thousand users.
• Between November 2016 and December 2016, PAS lost 46% of their audience
• The total loss for PAS since July 2016 is 59% of their audience.
• PKR has maintained a fairly stable level of interest from Facebook users, with the highest recent peak at 2 million users in November 2016 and the lowest recent point at 1.7 million users in April 2017. The current level of interest in July 2017 is 1.8 million users.
• Between November 2016 and December 2016, PKR lost 10% of their audience
• GERAKAN started to experience a drop in interest from 790 thousand users in November 2016 to 600 thousand users in December 2016, before reaching 110 thousand users in January 2017.
• Between November 2016 – January 2017 GERAKAN lost 86% of their audience
• MIC peaked at 150 thousand users in October 2016. It started to lose users in November, hitting a low of 79 thousand users by January 2017.
• Between October 2016 – January 2017 MIC lost 47% of their users.

All these patterns point to an event in October or November 2016 that affected the level of interest in all political parties. In terms of percentages PKR was the least affected and GERAKAN was the most affected. In terms of users, UMNO lost the most (3.3 million users).

A drop in interest in any political party can be caused by any of the following:

• Deletion of user accounts. This seems unlikely to be the main cause because there was no corresponding drop in Malaysia’s Facebook user population. It is not known whether suspended accounts have an impact on the statistics.
• Deletion of Facebook Groups/Pages that promote/publish content related to the political party
• Users un-liking Pages and leaving Groups that promote/publish content related to the political party
• Users previously posting/sharing content about the political party choosing to stop
• Users previously liking / commenting on posts related to the political party choosing to stop
• Internal adjustment by Facebook on which Pages, Groups, keywords and content contribute to the statistics for people interested in political party

 

4.5 The Declining Interest in Politics

The graph below shows the level of interest in political parties from potential voters on Facebook since April 2014.

Following events in October/November 2016, interest in political parties has dropped to its lowest point in recent years – 33.68% of potential voters.

This is partly influenced by new users joining Facebook in Malaysia – from 15 million potential voters in August 2016 to 17 million in December 2017 to the current figure of 19 million in July 2017.

When we compare the audience size (in terms of users) between October 2016 to January 2017, BN lost 40% of its audience aged 21-30 years. Within the same period for the same age group, the Opposition lost 25% of its audience.

For users aged 13-20 years for the same period, BN lost 48% of its audience while the Opposition lost 40% of its audience.

Between October 2016 – January 2017, the total number of users interested in political parties dropped from 9.8 million to 6.4 million. The change in audience size by age group is visualised in the chart below.

The message here is that younger generations of Facebook users are losing interest in political parties. Both the Opposition and BN need to work on regaining the interest of potential voters on Facebook.

On May 3^rd 2013 (2 days before Polling Day for GE13) the level of interest from potential voters was 23.38%. Since then the highest level of political interest was 63.57% in December 2015. While interest is at a low point now, we don’t expect it to dip below 23%.

 

5. Changes in Political Interest by State

The table below shows the number of potential voters on Facebook interested in each party by state. Putrajaya could not be evaluated due to the low number of users. KL + Selangor is shown as a separate category as 63.16% of Facebook users in Malaysia (aged >=21 years) live there. State breakdown figures do not add up to the total due to rounding issues with Facebook’s figures.

Penang and Melaka could not be shown due to some issues with data collection for these states in May. To get an idea of how party support has changed for these states, please refer to the breakdown by state for Malay and Chinese speakers later in this report.

May 2017

State	DAP	PKR	PAS	UMNO
Johor	140,000	130,000	52,000	300,000
Pahang	36,000	45,000	34,000	120,000
Terengganu	21,000	43,000	42,000	120,000
Perak	60,000	58,000	34,000	140,000
Perlis	3,100	3,900	3,000	9,500
Kedah	47,000	56,000	41,000	130,000
Kelantan	16,000	27,000	27,000	67,000
Sarawak	70,000	60,000	19,000	120,000
Sabah	67,000	71,000	26,000	230,000
Negeri Sembilan	29,000	28,000	15,000	72,000
Labuan	12,000	11,000	3,400	24,000
KL + Selangor	930,000	1,100,000	650,000	2,800,000
Malaysia	1,500,000	1,800,000	990,000	4,300,000

 

July 2017

The change in interest by state is calculated as a change in percentage from May 2017 totals e.g. “DAP’s audience dropped by 30.00% in Penang” or “PKR’s audience in Kelantan increased by 33.33%”.

State	DAP	PKR	PAS	UMNO	DAP Chg (%)	PKR Chg (%)	PAS Chg (%)	UMNO Chg (%)
Johor	140,000	140,000	58,000	350,000	0.00	7.69	11.54	16.67
Penang	98,000	90,000	33,000	160,000	–	–	–	–
Melaka	26,000	33,000	17,000	77,000	–	–	–	–
Pahang	35,000	48,000	36,000	110,000	-2.78	6.67	5.88	-8.33
Terengganu	20,000	46,000	45,000	94,000	-4.76	6.98	7.14	-21.67
Perak	58,000	66,000	37,000	150,000	-3.33	13.79	8.82	7.14
Perlis	2,600	4,600	3,400	11,000	-16.13	17.95	13.33	15.79
Kedah	43,000	65,000	46,000	140,000	-8.51	16.07	12.20	7.69
Kelantan	14,000	36,000	36,000	73,000	-12.50	33.33	33.33	8.96
Sarawak	75,000	63,000	18,000	210,000	7.14	5.00	-5.26	75.00
Sabah	55,000	75,000	25,000	390,000	-17.91	5.63	-3.85	69.57
Negeri Sembilan	24,000	32,000	16,000	75,000	-17.24	14.29	6.67	4.17
Labuan	12,000	14,000	3,800	50,000	0.00	27.27	11.76	108.33
KL + Selangor	710,000	1,000,000	560,000	2,600,000	-23.66	-9.09	-13.85	-7.14
Malaysia	1,300,000	1,800,000	950,000	4,400,000	-13.33	0.00	-4.04	2.33

 

Observations:

• DAP lost users in all states except the following:
  • Johor: No change
  • Sarawak: +7.14%
  • Labuan: No change
  • Penang: Not available
  • Melaka: Not available
• PKR gained users in all states except the following:
  • KL + Selangor: -9.09%
  • Penang: Not available
  • Melaka: Not available
• PAS gained users in all states except the following:
  • Sarawak: -5.26%
  • Sabah: -3.85%
  • KL + Selangor: -13.85%
  • Penang: Not available
  • Melaka: Not available
• UMNO gained users in all states except the following:
  • Terengganu: -21.67%
  • KL + Selangor: -7.14%
  • Penang: Not available
  • Melaka: Not available
• DAP has less users than PKR in every state except Penang, Sarawak and Johor. DAP is tied with PKR in Johor with 140,000 users
• PAS has less users than PKR in every state except Kelantan (where PAS and PKR are tied at 36000 users). PAS only has 1000 less users than PKR in Terengganu.
• PAS has less users than DAP in every state except Kelantan, Terengganu, Kedah, Perlis and Pahang

 

The common pattern is that users in KL and Selangor are losing interest in major political parties.

Since May 2017:

• PKR maintained its total level of interest
• DAP lost 13% of their users
• PAS lost 4% of their users
• Interest in UMNO grew by 2%, with the biggest improvement in East Malaysia

The table below shows the partisanship by state for 6.4 million potential voters. The last column shows the percentage of the 6.4 million users who reside in the state.

State	Opposition Only (%)	Mixed (%)	BN Only (%)	% of Malaysia FB Pop
Perlis	13.33	38.00	48.67	0.23
Labuan	8.06	32.26	59.68	0.97
Kelantan	9.00	50.00	41.00	1.56
Terengganu	14.29	40.71	45.00	2.19
Negeri Sembilan	12.73	38.18	49.09	1.72
Melaka	16.67	34.17	49.17	1.87
Pahang	12.50	43.13	44.38	2.50
Kedah	10.00	45.00	45.00	3.12
Perak	16.67	37.50	45.83	3.75
Sabah	2.33	27.91	69.77	6.71
Penang	22.22	44.44	33.33	4.21
Sarawak	12.90	29.03	58.06	4.84
Johor	16.36	34.55	49.09	8.58
KL + Selangor	13.51	35.14	51.35	57.75
Malaysia	12.50	35.94	51.56	100.00

 

Please note the slight difference in the total for Malaysia compared with the figures used for the national partisanship graph (9.38% Opposition Only; 39.06% Mixed; and 51.56% BN Only). This was due to a fluctuation in provided stats during data collection on individual states.

These statistics are visualised in the chart below.

Observations:

• BN has a high exclusive share of interest in East Malaysia (from 58% – 60%), partly due to the surge of interest in UMNO. This places the Opposition at a disadvantage in spreading their message, particularly in Sabah where it holds an exclusive share of 2%.
• BN has a higher exclusive share of interest than the Opposition in every state
• BN’s weakest states are Penang (33%) and Kelantan (41%)
• The Opposition’s best states are Penang (22%), Melaka (17%), Perak (17%), Johor (16%) and Terengganu (14%)
• The Opposition’s weakest states are Sabah (2%), Labuan (8%), Kelantan (9%) and Kedah (10%)
• Mixed interest is above the national average (39.06%) in Kelantan (50%), Terengganu (41%), Pahang (43%), Kedah (45%) and Penang (44%). There is more engagement and interest in both sides on Facebook in these states.

 

6. Interest in Political Parties by Age Group

The charts below show the distribution of users by age group for users in Malaysia interested in BN and the Opposition.

By comparing the two charts we can see that BN has more users in each category and a larger concentration of users aged 13 – 30 compared to the Opposition. The Opposition has a higher concentration of users in older age categories (31+).

The table below shows the distribution of users for each age category as a percentage of each party’s audience. This helps us understand the appeal of each party by age group.

Party	Total Audience (13+)	Percentage of Users in Age Category (years)
		13-20	21-30	31-40	41-50	>50
DAP	1.42M	8.39	35.66	28.67	14.69	12.59
PKR	1.94M	7.41	40.21	29.10	13.23	10.05
PAS	1.06M	10.59	41.39	27.91	12.51	7.60
UMNO	4.98M	11.64	41.42	27.61	11.44	7.89
GERAKAN	161,739	7.05	41.03	28.85	12.18	10.90
MCA	806,826	8.28	37.76	29.23	13.40	11.33
MIC	93,000	12.90	37.63	24.73	11.83	12.90

 

For easier comparison, here is a chart comparing the top 4 parties:

Observations:

• UMNO and PAS have a higher concentration of young users aged 13 – 30 compared to PKR and DAP. 11.64% of UMNO users and 10.59% of PAS users are aged 13 – 20.
• PKR and DAP have a higher concentration of users among the older age groups when compared to PAS and UMNO.
• DAP has a higher concentration of users aged 41-50 and 51 and above compared to other parties.
• PKR has a higher concentration of users aged 21 – 40 compared to DAP
• DAP draws more interest from older users.
• UMNO and PAS draw more interest from young users.
• The difference between PKR, UMNO and PAS is small for users aged 21-30. However, the next wave of young voters (aged 13-20 years) has a stronger interest in UMNO and PAS compared to PKR. This is meaningful if the General Election is held next year as some of these users might be eligible to register in time to vote.

 

7. Interest in Political Parties by Language Group

7.1 Overview

Out of 6.4 million potential voters on Facebook who are interested in BN or Opposition parties, 6.3 million (98%) understand English, Malay or Chinese languages. This is divided into:

• 81% Malay speakers
• 78% English speakers
• 18% Chinese speakers

The breakdown of these users by language group is shown in the table below with a comparison against the national population figures:

Language Group	Code	% of Population (>=21 years)	% of Population Interested in Political Parties (>=21 years)	Difference (points)
Bilingual Malay + English	BME	40.26	60.16	19.9
English Only / English + Other languages	EO	19.21	3.91	-15.3
Malay Only / Malay + Other languages	MO	13.95	14.84	0.89
Bilingual Chinese + English	BCE	12.37	11.72	-0.65
Other Languages Only	OTH	7.11	<2%	–
Chinese Only / Chinese + Other languages	CO	3.42	<2%	–
Bilingual Malay + Chinese	BMC	1.84	3.91	2.07
Trilingual Malay + English + Chinese	TRI	1.84	2.34	0.50

 

The proportion of each group is summarised in the chart below.

The proportion of Chinese Only and Other Languages Only users is not shown due to their small number, which is estimated to be <2% each. There will be no deeper analysis for the political interests of these groups.

Compared to the national population, the proportion of BME users is nearly 20 points higher while the proportion of EO users is 15 points lower. This may be due to most EO users possibly being foreigners who speak English and other languages, who have no interest in our politics.

This make the BME, MO and BCE the 3 most important language groups for politics, covering 86.72% of the market of potential voters on Facebook interested in politics.

The table below shows the division of BN and the Opposition’s respective audiences by language group.

Language Group	Code	% of Opposition (3.1 million users)	% of BN (5.8 million users)	BN lead over Opposition (points)
Bilingual Malay + English	BME	58.06	61.00	2.94
English Only / English + Other languages	EO	3.23	4.64	1.41
Malay Only / Malay + Other languages	MO	12.90	17.36	4.46
Bilingual Chinese + English	BCE	16.13	9.91	-6.22
Bilingual Malay + Chinese	BMC	3.23	2.64	-0.59
Trilingual Malay + English + Chinese	TRI	3.23	2.64	-0.59

 

The proportion of each group is summarised in the charts below.

Observations:

• MO users are the 2^nd largest group for BN while BCE users are the 2^nd largest group for the Opposition.
• BN leads the Opposition when it comes to BME, MO and EO groups
• BN has a stronger appeal to Malay speaking audiences
• The Opposition leads BN when it comes to BCE, BMC and TRI groups
• The Opposition has a stronger appeal to Chinese speaking audiences
• BN’s audience is 87% larger than the Opposition with a higher proportion of Malay speakers. The BME and MO markets are what the Opposition needs to expand on.

 

The table below shows the partisanship by language group for 97% of potential voters interested in political parties.

This does not include the Other Languages group or Chinese Only group, which is estimated to be 3.12% in total.

Language Group	Code	Opposition Only	Mixed	BN Only	% of Audience
Bilingual Malay+English	BME	12.86	33.90	53.25	60.16
Malay Only / Malay + Other languages	MO	2.89	38.99	58.12	14.84
Bilingual Chinese+English	BCE	27.33	39.33	33.33	11.72
Bilingual Malay+Chinese	BMC	29.27	19.51	51.22	3.91
English Only / English + Other languages	EO	1.92	36.54	61.54	3.91
Trilingual Malay / English / Chinese	TRI	3.33	63.33	33.33	2.34

 

Examples of how to read the table:

• BME speakers, representing 60.16% of potential voters interested in political parties, are divided between 12.86% exclusively interested in the Opposition, 53.25% exclusively interested in BN and 33.9% interested in both coalitions.
• EO speakers, representing 3.91% of potential voters interested in political parties, are divided between 1.92% exclusively interested in the Opposition, 61.54% exclusively interested in BN and 36.54% interested in both coalitions.

 

The chart below shows the divide between the language groups.

Observations:

• BN holds the largest share among BME, MO, EO and BMC users. Their smallest share is with the BCE and TRI users, where BN has an exclusive share of 33% with each group.
• The BME and MO groups combined represent 75% of potential voters interested in political parties on Facebook.
• BN has an exclusive share of 53% of the BME group and 58% of the MO group.
• The Opposition has an exclusive share of 13% of the BME group and 3% of the MO group.
• The Opposition’s smallest share is with the MO group and EO group (2%).
• The Opposition’s largest share of interest is from BCE users (27%) and BMC users (29%).
• The Opposition has a smaller exclusive share of every language group compared to BN, but the indication here is that the Opposition’s strongest influence is among Chinese speakers.
• The degree of Mixed interest among BME, MO and BCE users (34% – 39%) indicates that over a third of users are aware of and/or talking about both sides.
  • This can be considered average as based on our historical record of national interest on Facebook, the level of Mixed interest was at an average of 35% between July 2016 and July 2017
  • National Mixed interest has not dropped below 29% since GE13. The highest record was 62% in June 2015 at the height of the 1MDB issue
  • The Opposition needs issues / leaders that draw interest from the BN exclusive market among the BME and MO groups

 

7.2 Identifying the Appeal by Language for Major Political Parties

Out of 6.4 million Facebook users who are potential voters interested in political parties, 81% speak Malay, 78% speak English and 18% speak Chinese.

The table below shows the distribution of users for each language group as a percentage of each party’s audience. This helps us understand the appeal of each party by language compared to the national level of interest in politics.

Party	Total Audience	Percentage of Users in Language Group
		BME	MO	BCE	BMC	EO	TRI
DAP	1,300,000	52.31	7.69	24.62	<1%	<1%	7.69
PKR	1,800,000	61.94	11.94	10.28	4.72	0.83	4.72
PAS	950,000	72.47	21.95	2.26	1.21	0.89	1.21
UMNO	4,400,000	65.00	15.00	7.73	3.18	3.64	3.18
National	6,400,000	60.16	14.84	11.72	3.91	3.91	2.34

 

Observations:

• DAP
  • DAP has the lowest percentage of Malay Only speakers at 7.69% and the highest percentage of Bilingual Chinese + English speakers (24.62%).
  • 32% – 33% of DAP’s audience speak Chinese, which is almost double the national proportion of Chinese speakers (18%).
  • DAP’s audience also has the highest percentage of Trilingual speakers (7.69%) which is over 3 times higher than the national proportion (2.34%).
  • Within the Opposition, DAP has the largest market reach among Chinese speakers at 37% – 38% of the total 1.152 million Chinese speakers.
  • This makes DAP a party with a very strong appeal to Chinese speakers.
• PKR
  • PKR has a good appeal to Malay speakers and Chinese speakers – 83% of PKR’s audience speak Malay while 20% speak Chinese, placing each group 2 points above the national proportion of Malay speakers and Chinese speakers.
  • When it comes to language groups, PKR has the highest proportion of BMC speakers (4.72%) and the 2nd highest proportion of Trilingual speakers (4.72%).
  • Malay Only speakers are PKR’s weak point, as their 2-point advantage with Malay speakers comes from the higher BMC and TRI groups. A more balanced distribution would have a higher MO value and lower BMC / TRI values.
• PAS
  • PAS has the highest percentage of Malay Only speakers at 21.95%.
  • BME + MO groups combined make up 94.42% of PAS’ audience, making PAS the party with the strongest appeal to Malay speakers.
  • PAS’ weak point is with Chinese speakers, which make up 4.68% of their audience.
• UMNO
  • UMNO’s total proportion of Malay, Chinese and English speakers is the same as the national proportion – 81% Malay speakers, 78% English speakers and 18% Chinese speakers.
  • This implies that UMNO has a balanced appeal to users of all languages, which is not surprising as UMNO has a market share of 68.75%.
  • UMNO has a greater weightage for the BME group (5 points higher than national) and a smaller weightage for BCE group (4 points lower than national).
  • UMNO has a slightly better appeal with the BME group that makes up the majority of Facebook users in Malaysia.
  • UMNO also has an advantage with English Only speakers (3.64%) compared to individual Opposition parties which have <1% each.

 

7.3 The Division by Language between PKR and DAP

The table below shows the divide between PKR and DAP’s combined audience (total: 2.5 million users) for the 3 major language groups (representing 2.215 million users):

Language Group	PKR Only (%)	Both (%)	DAP Only (%)
Bilingual Malay+English	55.12	18.48	26.40
Malay Only / Malay + Other languages	68.25	17.30	14.44
Bilingual Chinese+English	16.88	31.17	51.95

 

In chart form:

PKR depends on DAP to reach Chinese speakers while DAP depends on PKR to reach Malay speakers. However Chinese speakers represent only 18% of the potential voter market interested in politics. DAP is more dependent on PKR to reach the much larger BME and MO groups which include the majority of Malaysians, not just ethnic Malays.

 

8. Analysing the Political Interests of Malay and Chinese Speakers

We have now established that there is a clear divide in political interest by language between Malay speakers (mainly the BME and MO groups) and Chinese speakers (mainly the BCE group).

The table below shows the comparison between Malay speakers, Chinese speakers and National Interest.

Language Spoken	% of Population	Opposition Only (%)	Mixed (%)	BN Only (%)
National (All Languages)	100	12.50	35.94	51.56
Malay Speakers	81	11.54	34.61	53.85
Chinese Speakers	18	28.18	36.36	35.46

 

BN has a 2.29 point larger market share with Malay speakers but a 16.11 point smaller market share with Chinese speakers. It is very difficult for BN to reach Chinese speakers compared to Malay speakers.

For the Opposition their reach with the Malay-speaking market is already quite small at 11.54% and their strength is with the Chinese-speaking market with a 28% exclusive share.

 

The Partisanship of Malay Speakers

The table below shows the partisanship by state for 5.2 million potential voters who speak Malay (representing 81% of 6.4 million potential voters interested in political parties). This includes BME, MO, BMC and TRI groups. Kelantan, Terengganu and Perlis could not be shown due to some issues with data collection for these states for this table.

State	Malay Speaker Interest			Lead Over National Interest (= Malay Speaker Interest – National Interest)
	Opposition Only (%)	Mixed (%)	BN Only (%)	Opposition Only (points)	Mixed (points)	BN Only (points)
Labuan	4.00	34.00	62.00	-4.06	1.74	2.32
Negeri Sembilan	9.09	38.64	52.27	-3.64	0.45	3.18
Melaka	9.68	40.86	49.46	-6.99	6.69	0.30
Pahang	14.29	39.29	46.43	1.79	-3.84	2.05
Kedah	11.11	41.67	47.22	1.11	-3.33	2.22
Perak	11.76	39.41	48.82	-4.90	1.91	2.99
Sabah	2.63	26.32	71.05	0.31	-1.59	1.29
Penang	12.50	49.38	38.13	-9.72	4.93	4.79
Sarawak	8.00	31.20	60.80	-4.90	2.17	2.74
Johor	7.89	39.47	52.63	-8.47	4.93	3.54
KL + Selangor	10.00	36.67	53.33	-3.51	1.53	1.98

 

In chart form:

By focusing on the partisanship of Malay speakers, certain differences become apparent:

• The Opposition’s exclusive share among Malay speakers is lower than the national interest in 9 states, with the worst drop in Penang (-9.72 points); Johor (-8.47 points); and Melaka (-6.99 points). It is higher in Pahang (+1.79 points), Kedah (+1.11 points) and Sabah (+0.31 points).
• BN’s exclusive share among Malay speakers is higher than the national interest level in every state, with the biggest leads in Penang (+4.79 points); Johor (+3.54 points); and Negeri Sembilan (+3.18 points)
• The Opposition’s higher exclusive share per-state at the national level was being supported by non-Malay speakers. This would have come from users in EO, BCE, CO and OTH groups.
• Non-Malay speakers had also contributed to a higher level of Mixed interest and BN exclusive interest in Pahang, Kedah and Sabah. This is why both sides show increases in their exclusive share when looking only at Malay speakers. It also means that Malay speakers are more partisan and engage less with each other in these 3 states.
• BN has a stronger influence on Malay speakers (by an average of 2.49 points per-state), which means that there is a larger base of Malay speakers that are only aware of and talking about issues related to BN.

 

The Partisanship of Chinese Speakers

The table below shows the partisanship by state for 1.152 million potential voters who speak Chinese (representing 18% of 6.4 million potential voters). This includes BCE, CO, BMC and TRI groups. Perlis could not be shown due to the small number of Chinese speakers residing in the state.

State	Chinese Speaker Interest			Lead Over National Interest (= Chinese Speaker Interest – National Interest)
	Opposition Only (%)	Mixed (%)	BN Only (%)	Opposition Only (points)	Mixed (points)	BN Only (points)
Labuan	13.33	34.67	52.00	5.27	2.41	-7.68
Kelantan	17.86	41.07	41.07	8.86	-8.93	0.07
Terengganu	16.95	42.37	40.68	2.66	1.66	-4.32
Negeri Sembilan	31.82	31.82	36.36	19.09	-6.36	-12.73
Melaka	33.33	33.33	33.33	16.67	-0.83	-15.83
Pahang	29.17	37.50	33.33	16.67	-5.63	-11.04
Kedah	28.13	37.50	34.38	18.13	-7.50	-10.63
Perak	35.94	31.25	32.81	19.27	-6.25	-13.02
Sabah	4.84	25.81	69.35	2.51	-2.10	-0.41
Penang	38.00	45.00	17.00	15.78	0.56	-16.33
Sarawak	23.94	32.39	43.66	11.04	3.36	-14.40
Johor	33.33	33.33	33.33	16.97	-1.21	-15.76
KL + Selangor	28.00	36.00	36.00	14.49	0.86	-15.35

 

In chart form:

Observations:

• The Opposition’s exclusive share among Chinese speakers is higher than the national interest in every state. The states with the biggest leads are Perak (+19.27 points); Negeri Sembilan (+19.09 points); and Kedah (+18.13 points).
• BN’s exclusive share among Chinese speakers is lower than the national interest level in every state except Kelantan, with the largest drops in Penang (-16.33 points); Melaka (-15.83 points); Johor (-15.76 points) and KL + Selangor (-15.35 points).
• BN’s higher exclusive share per-state at the national level was being supported by non-Chinese speakers. This would have come from users in EO, BME, MO and OTH groups.
• The Opposition has a stronger influence on Chinese speakers (by an average of 12.88 points per-state), which means that there is a larger base of Chinese speakers that are only aware of and talking about issues related to the Opposition.

 

Malay Speaker Interest by Party

The table below shows the number of potential voters on Facebook interested in each party who speak Malay, by state, in July 2017. The change in interest by state is calculated as a change in percentage from May 2017 totals e.g. “PKR’s Malay-speaking audience dropped by 6.38% in KL and Selangor” or “PAS’ Malay-speaking audience in Kelantan increased by 34.62%”.

State	DAP	PKR	PAS	UMNO	DAP Chg (%)	PKR Chg (%)	PAS Chg (%)	UMNO Chg (%)
Johor	74000	100000	55000	280000	-8.64	11.11	14.58	12.00
Penang	45000	58000	31000	120000	0.00	7.41	3.33	21.21
Melaka	17000	27000	17000	66000	-22.73	3.85	0.00	-5.71
Pahang	27000	43000	35000	98000	0.00	10.26	6.06	-10.91
Terengganu	19000	45000	45000	92000	-5.00	9.76	12.50	-23.33
Perak	34000	53000	36000	120000	-8.11	17.78	16.13	0.00
Perlis	2300	4300	3300	10000	-8.00	19.44	13.79	16.28
Kedah	33000	58000	45000	130000	-8.33	18.37	15.38	8.33
Kelantan	14000	35000	35000	71000	7.69	40.00	34.62	18.33
Sarawak	52000	53000	18000	180000	1.96	6.00	0.00	130.77
Sabah	48000	69000	25000	350000	-12.73	6.15	0.00	84.21
Negeri Sembilan	15000	27000	15000	65000	-25.00	17.39	7.14	4.84
Labuan	8700	12000	3700	41000	8.75	22.45	15.63	115.79
KL + Selangor	490000	880000	550000	2200000	-30.99	-6.38	-11.29	-12.00
Malaysia	880000	1500000	920000	3800000	-20.00	0.00	-3.16	0.00

 

Observations:

• DAP lost users in 10 states with the worst drops in:
  • KL + Selangor: -30.99%
  • Negeri Sembilan: -25.00%
  • Melaka: -22.73%
  • Sabah: -12.73%
• DAP gained users in Kelantan (+7.69%); Labuan (+8.75%); and Sarawak (+1.96%)
• DAP maintained its Malay-speaking audience in Penang and Pahang
• PKR gained users in all states except KL and Selangor where they lost 6.38% of their users
• PKR’s largest gains were in the following states:
  • Kelantan: +40.00%
  • Labuan: +22.45%
  • Perlis: +19.44%
  • Kedah: +18.37%
• PAS maintained their Malay-speaking audience in Melaka, Sabah and Sarawak.
• PAS gained users in all other states except KL and Selangor (where they lost 11.29% of their users).
• PAS’ largest gains were in the following states:
  • Kelantan: +34.62%
  • Perak: +16.13%
  • Labuan: +15.63%
  • Kedah: +15.38%
• UMNO gained users in all states except the following:
  • Terengganu: -23.33%
  • KL and Selangor: -12.00%
  • Pahang: -10.91%
  • Melaka: -5.71%
• UMNO’s largest gains were in East Malaysia and Penang
• DAP has less Malay speakers than PKR in every state
• DAP has more Malay speakers than PAS in Johor, Penang, Sabah, Sarawak and Labuan
• PAS has more Malay speakers than DAP in 8 states and are tied with DAP in 2 states
• PKR has more Malay speakers than PAS and DAP in every state except in Kelantan and Terengganu (where PKR and PAS have the same number of users)

 

The common pattern is that Malay-speaking users in Labuan, Sarawak, Kelantan and Penang are showing greater interest in major political parties (except DAP in Penang and PAS in Sarawak). Malay speakers in KL and Selangor are turning away from political parties, particularly DAP.

On a national scale Malay speakers make up 81% of potential voters interested in political parties, which makes decreasing audience sizes very significant.

Since May 2017:

• PKR maintained its Malay-speaking audience. Gains in other states were offset by losses in KL and Selangor.
• DAP lost 20% of their Malay-speaking audience (220,000 users)
• PAS lost 3.16% of their Malay-speaking audience (30,000 users)
• UMNO maintained its Malay-speaking audience. Gains in other states were offset by losses in KL, Selangor, Melaka, Terengganu and Pahang

 

Chinese Speaker Interest by Party

The table below shows the number of potential voters on Facebook interested in each party who speak Chinese, by state, in July 2017. The change in interest by state is calculated as a change in percentage from May 2017 totals e.g. “PAS’ Chinese-speaking audience dropped by 2.94% in Johor” or “DAP’s Chinese-speaking audience in KL and Selangor increased by 18.75%”.

Due to the small number of Chinese-speaking users who are interested in PAS, a detailed state breakdown was not possible for all states. Those states where PAS has less than 1000 Chinese speakers interested in them are marked with a ‘-‘ to indicate that their growth rate can’t be measured in detail.

State	DAP	PKR	PAS	UMNO	DAP Chg (%)	PKR Chg (%)	PAS Chg (%)	UMNO Chg (%)
Johor	70000	43000	3300	73000	20.69	4.88	-2.94	265.00
Penang	54000	32000	2200	44000	35.00	18.52	4.76	238.46
Melaka	11000	7300	–	13000	11.11	5.80	–	188.89
Pahang	8900	5600	–	12000	17.11	9.80	–	135.29
Terengganu	1500	1700	–	3700	25.00	6.25	–	15.63
Perak	25000	13000	1500	27000	25.00	18.18	7.14	206.82
Kedah	12000	8500	1500	16000	22.45	8.97	7.14	175.86
Kelantan	1400	1700	–	3600	27.27	41.67	–	140.00
Sarawak	27000	12000	–	42000	35.00	20.00	–	663.64
Sabah	11000	9200	–	56000	23.60	16.46	–	471.43
Negeri Sembilan	8800	5200	–	10000	23.94	8.33	–	170.27
Labuan	4600	2500	–	11000	48.39	25.00	–	685.71
KL + Selangor	190000	130000	18000	260000	18.75	8.33	-14.29	179.57
Malaysia	430000	270000	33000	580000	22.86	12.50	-5.71	222.22

 

Observations:

• DAP gained users in all states. The largest gains were in:
  • Labuan: +48.39%
  • Sarawak: +35.00%
  • Penang: +35.00%
  • Kelantan: +27.27%
• PKR gained users in all states. The largest gains were in:
  • Kelantan: +41.67%
  • Labuan: +25.00%
  • Sarawak: +20.00%
  • Penang: +18.52%
• PAS lost users in Johor (-2.94%), KL and Selangor (-14.29%).
• PAS gained users in Perak (+7.14%); Kedah (+7.14%); and Penang (+4.76%)
• UMNO made very large gains in terms of the number of Chinese speakers.
  • 400,000 additional Chinese-speaking users took interest in UMNO between May and July, causing UMNO’s growth rate to reach 222.22%.
  • The largest increase in terms of users was in KL and Selangor (167,000 users, 180% increase); Johor (53,000 users, 265% growth rate) and Sabah (46,200 users, 471% increase)
• DAP has more Chinese speakers than PKR in every state except Kelantan and Terengganu
• UMNO has more Chinese speakers than DAP in every state except Penang

 

The common pattern is that Chinese-speaking users are showing greater interest in UMNO, PKR and DAP. Unlike DAP, PKR experienced smaller growth rates (<10%) in 8 states.

Since May 2017:

• PKR’s Chinese-speaking audience grew by 12.50% (30,000 users)
• DAP’s Chinese-speaking audience grew by 22.86% (80,000 users)
• PAS lost 5.71% of their Chinese-speaking audience (2,000 users)
• UMNO grew its base of Chinese speakers by 222.22% (400,000 users)

 

9. Interest in Political Parties by Language Group and Age Group

9.1 Bilingual Malay + English Users (BME)

There are 4.28 million BME users aged 13 years and above interested in political parties. Those aged 21 and above represent 60.16% of the potential voter market interested in politics. The table below shows the division by age group for BME users.

Age Group	Opposition Only (%)	Mixed (%)	BN Only (%)
13-20	9.09	22.32	68.59
21-30	10.19	33.51	56.30
31-40	9.21	39.91	50.88
41-50	12.63	35.79	51.58
51+	6.23	47.87	45.90

 

In chart form:

Observations:

• BN has a high exclusive share of the 13-20 year-old market at 69% and the 21-30 year-old market at 56%. This means that the Opposition is not doing enough to draw interest from users in these age groups.
• Mixed interest is higher for BME speakers aged 31-40 years and 51+ years. This means that users in this age group have a greater interest in politics compared to users in the other age groups.

 

9.2 Malay Only / Malay + Other Languages Users (MO)

There are 1.15 million MO users aged 13 years and above interested in political parties. Those aged 21 and above represent 14.84% of the potential voter market interested in politics. The table below shows the division by age group for MO users.

Age Group	Opposition Only (%)	Mixed (%)	BN Only (%)
13-20	3.23	26.13	70.65
21-30	2.67	28.00	69.33
31-40	1.47	36.76	61.76
41-50	0.00	42.42	57.58
51+	16.52	22.61	60.87

 

In chart form:

Observations:

• BN has a steadily decreasing exclusive share from MO speakers aged 13-20 years (70.65%) to 41-50 years (57.58%). BN is doing well with younger users.
• The Opposition has a steadily decreasing exclusive share from MO speakers aged 13-20 years (3.23%) to 31-40 years (1.47%). But while their exclusive share is decreasing, their total reach is increasing due to the increase in Mixed interest.
• The share of Mixed interest is increasing with age, from MO speakers aged 13-20 years (26.13%) to 41-50 years (42.42%). Older users show greater interest in both sides.
• The Opposition is at the losing end with MO speakers, both in terms of exclusive reach and total reach (<50% for all ages)

 

9.3 Bilingual Chinese + English Users (BCE)

There are 930 thousand BCE users aged 13 years and above interested in political parties. Those aged 21 and above represent 11.72% of the potential voter market interested in politics. The table below shows the division by age group for BCE users.

Age Group	Opposition Only (%)	Mixed (%)	BN Only (%)
13-20	26.32	31.05	42.63
21-30	32.84	22.39	44.78
31-40	36.54	25.00	38.46
41-50	37.04	29.63	33.33
51+	29.52	32.38	38.10

 

In chart form:

Observations:

• BN has a steadily decreasing exclusive share from BCE speakers aged 21-30 years (44.78%) to 41-50 years (33.33%).
• The Opposition has a steadily increasing exclusive share from BCE speakers aged 13-20 years (26.32%) to 41-50 years (37.04%).
• This is an indicator of pro-Opposition partisanship increasing with age, where older BCE speakers have a tendency to only take interest in the Opposition.
• However BN still has a higher exclusive share and total reach compared to the Opposition for all age groups except 41-50 year olds. Compared to BME and MO speakers, BN cannot reach 27% of the total BCE market.

 

10. Key Points to Consider

The most important language groups for potential voters on Facebook are Bilingual Malay + English (BME) speakers, Malay Only (MO) speakers and Bilingual Chinese + English (BCE) speakers. As the statistics have shown, MO speakers are the weakest market for the Opposition while BCE speakers are the weakest market for BN.

This report has demonstrated how language groups can be used to segment and identify the interests of different communities on Facebook by age and state. While we cannot identify the ethnicity of users, there is a clear divide in political interest by language and trends can be observed.

Based on this research, the following points are worth keeping in mind.

 

Reaching Young Malay Voters Is Important

In a previous report on Pakatan Rakyat’s performance with the Malay electorate in GE13 (http://politweet.wordpress.com/2015/07/27/analysing-pakatan-rakyats-performance-with-malay-voters-in-peninsular-malaysia-ge13/), we highlighted the following key points:

• Support for PR dropped by 2 points while support for BN increased by 2 points
• PR gained 5 points from Malay youth (aged 35 and below) while BN lost 3 points
• BN made significant gains among the Malay electorate, with positive swings in 9 states
• PAS had the highest support from Malay youth (73% leaning PAS in PAS seats) followed by BN (72% leaning BN in BN seats)
• There was a common pattern of young Malays moving closer to PR and middle-aged and older Malays moving away from PR or showing less improvement
• Young Malay voters can be a strong asset for the Opposition in urban and semi-urban seats provided that the positive swing of support from GE13 can be repeated

Based on our current estimates for the first quarter of 2017, there are 14.5 million voters registered to vote. This is divided into the following primary ethnic groups:

• 54.56% are Malay/Muslim Bumiputera (GE13: 52.63%)
• 28.56% are Chinese (GE13: 29.68%)
• 7.04% are Indian (GE13: 7.31%)
• 3.92% are Bumiputera Sarawak (GE13: 4.06%)
• 4.33% are Bumiputera Sabah (GE13: 4.89%)
• 1.26% are from Other Ethnic Groups (GE13: 1.43%)
• 0.34% could not be profiled

Compared to GE13, the proportion of Malay voters has increased by 1.93 points. This is an electorate which BN has an advantage with reaching on Facebook.

As of the first quarter of 2017, there are an estimated 1.8 million new voters eligible to vote in the next general election. Here is a breakdown of new voters by ethnic group:

• 68% are Malay/Muslim Bumiputera
• 20% are Chinese
• 5% are Indian
• 7% are Other Bumiputera / Other Ethnic Groups or could not be profiled

The distribution by race and age group for Malays, Chinese and Indians is shown in the chart below.

77% of new voters are between the ages of 21 – 30 years. 72% of voters in this age group (993 thousand) are Malay/Muslim Bumiputera. This makes young Malay speakers on Facebook a vital demographic for political parties to reach.

 

People Are Losing Interest in Politics

Facebook users are losing interest in politics, particularly in KL and Selangor where PAS, PKR, DAP and UMNO lost a share of their audience between May – July 2017. DAP was the most affected, losing 24% of their audience in both states combined. KL and Selangor are where we normally find strong Opposition supporters, so the loss is quite significant.

37% of Facebook users aged 21-30 have lost interest in political parties between October 2016 to January 2017, with BN suffering a greater loss (40%) compared to the Opposition (25%). With the next wave of young voters aged 13-20, BN lost 48% of their audience while the Opposition lost 40% of their audience.

Clearly both political sides are losing the interest of the youth on Facebook.  This should be a cause for concern for UMNO and DAP given that both parties experienced the biggest losses in audience size since 2016.

Of the 6.4 million users who are still remain interested in politics:

• BN draws greater interest compared to the Opposition, particularly from Malay Only (MO) speakers
• BN has a stronger base with Malay speakers (54% exclusive share) while the Opposition has a stronger base with Chinese speakers (28% exclusive share)
• 56% of BME speakers aged 21-30 years and 69% of MO speakers aged 21-30 years are only interested in BN.
• UMNO and PAS draw greater interest from younger users aged 30 and below, compared to PKR and DAP which have older audiences
• UMNO and PAS lost a smaller share of their audience in KL and Selangor compared to PKR and DAP

As people lose interest in politics or withdraw into their own ‘bubbles’ a problem emerges for both BN and the Opposition – how do they reach the other side?

If 69% of young MO speakers are only interested in BN that leaves the Opposition with a market reach of 31% with the remainder, and no reach with those who have lost interest in politics. BN has a similar problem with Chinese speakers where they cannot reach 28% of the potential voter market. A lack of awareness by the electorate can be a serious problem for political parties when they talk about issues; ideas; or policy changes.

A substantial number of young Malays on Facebook are not aware of developments by the Opposition or BN, and we won’t know how serious the apathy is until the next GE campaign starts. If they continue to be disinterested on Facebook then this can translate into lower turnout rates.

 

The Opposition Is Losing Ground to BN

Interest in the Opposition has been on a downward trend from May – July 2017, reaching a low point of 9.38% exclusive market share. This trend is primarily due to Malay speakers losing interest in DAP and PAS. The increased interest in PKR and DAP from Chinese speakers was not enough to cover the loss of Malay speakers.

The Opposition has a reach of 48.44% of the total market of political party interest. This means over half of potential voters on Facebook interested in politics have no interest in what Opposition leaders and supporters are sharing and doing (in the media).

BN’s audience is 87% larger than the Opposition with a higher proportion of Malay speakers. The BME and MO markets are what the Opposition needs to expand on. Such a large exclusive share for BN means the Opposition has not established a sufficient base via Pages and Groups. This will pose a problem when they need to spread their message during the election period.

In East Malaysia, BN has such a strong lead that it seems unlikely that the Opposition will be able to spread their influence on Facebook there before the next GE.

 

Trends Indicate UMNO May Have an Advantage with Malay Voters

PAS and UMNO have the strongest appeal to prospective ethnic Malay voters on Facebook because:

• They have the highest proportion of Bilingual Malay + English (BME) speakers and Malay-Only (MO) speakers.
• They have a higher percentage of young users in their respective audiences compared to PKR and DAP. This means young Malays are more likely to be interested in PAS and UMNO.
• PAS and BN combined have a 70% exclusive share of MO speakers of all ages. PKR and DAP can only reach a third of the MO speakers market.

Both PAS and DAP have been losing interest from Malay speakers while PKR has maintained their Malay-speaking audience. But PKR has a smaller base of BME and MO speakers compared to PAS and UMNO. This gives UMNO a greater advantage in reaching Malay voters on Facebook.

 

Prospects for The Opposition

Among BME, MO and BCE speakers, there is a trend of Mixed interest increasing with each age group. A high level of Mixed interest is beneficial for the Opposition because it gives them an opportunity to grow their exclusive share. There is the possibility that the Opposition may improve their performance with older voters in the next GE.

DAP’s dependence on PKR to reach Malay speakers on Facebook combined with their aging audience is a problem for DAP in Mixed seats. Both DAP and PKR need to improve their influence among users aged 21-30 years.

Given that statistics for PPBM are not available on Facebook yet, we did a separate study to explore a what-if scenario: What if Tun Mahathir’s audience was merged with the Opposition?

The result of that study was that Tun Mahathir can add at most 400 thousand users to the existing 3.1 million users in July 2017. This would bring the total to 3.5 million users vs. BN’s 5.8 million users and add 5.33 points the Opposition’s exclusive share. The chart below shows how this compares with the July 2017 figures.

This brings the Opposition’s market reach from 48.44% to 51.47%, a very small improvement. Even if Tun Mahathir, PAS, PKR and DAP were on the same side, it is not enough to significantly weaken BN’s reach.

Opposition parties need to identify why Malay speakers are turning away from them on Facebook, then work on a plan to encourage users to like their Pages; join their Groups; and champion issues that will improve their market reach.

Update (13th October 2017): Corrected errors in statistics in Section 4.1 and Section 10 (Reaching Young Malay Voters are Important). This was due to an issue with the ‘copy and paste’ function for numbers in lists. This affected the listed breakdown of interest in Opposition and BN parties in Section 4.1, and the listed ethnic breakdown for the first quarter 2017 voters in Section 10. We apologise for the oversight.