Recent Trends in Political Party Interest on Facebook in Malaysia (Aug 2016)

1. Introduction

This document provides a measurement of the political party interests of Facebook users in Malaysia. This is based on public information collected from Facebook.

Some important notes to remember when interpreting Facebook figures:

1. Total population refers to Facebook users aged 13 years and above.
2. Potential voters refer to Facebook users aged 21 years and above.
3. Youth refers to Facebook users aged 13 – 20 years.
4. Gender breakdown figures do not add up to the total. This may be due to Facebook users not sharing their gender, and also due to rounding errors by Facebook when dealing with specific age groups. State breakdown figures also do not add up to the total, due to the same rounding errors.
5. Figures provided by Facebook are estimates. Some inaccuracies are to be expected.
6. Facebook users residing in Malaysia are not necessarily Malaysian citizens.
7. Interest in a topic is equal to the number of users expressing interest in a topic.
   1. To measure interest we used a combination of Facebook Interests (a collection of interests, activities, groups, pages, status updates and job history identified by a common term determined by Facebook e.g. ‘United Malays National Organization’) and specific Group and Page names (e.g. Friends of BN).
   2. These are used to collect the number of users interested in a given party/coalition/politician/group. For example, a user mentioning a party name in a status update; sharing a news link related to the party or sharing content from a party-affiliated page would count towards the total interest in that party
   3. Interest in a political party does not indicate support for the party, only awareness
   4. It is assumed that interest in PAS includes interest in AMANAH as PAS leaders migrated to AMANAH
8. Audience refers to the population of users that express interest in a topic.
9. Based on our research to date, Pages that are of type ‘politician’ are not always included under related Facebook Topics. For example, not all ‘Tony Pua’ (MP, PJ Utara, DAP) Page likes are included under interest in ‘DAP’. However because Facebook does not make Topic details available we cannot easily determine which politicians, if any, were included.
10. Statistics on the Opposition primarily refer to component parties of the former Pakatan Rakyat – PKR, PAS and DAP. Interest in PSM is included in total statistics for the Opposition, but is not listed separately due to its small audience.

 

2. Interest in Political Parties on Facebook

The following graph shows the partisanship of interest in political parties by Facebook users in Malaysia aged 21 years and above. Interest in PAS is assumed to include interest in AMANAH because Facebook has not made separate AMANAH figures available yet.

Out of 8.4 million users in Malaysia (aged 21 years and above) that are interested in BN or Opposition parties:

• 54% are male and 46% are female
• 3 million are interested in Opposition parties
• 8 million are interested in BN parties
• 76% (400 thousand) are exclusively interested in Opposition parties
• 52% (2.9 million) are interested in a mix of Opposition and BN parties
• 71% (5.1 million) are exclusively interested in BN parties

As of August 2016 the level of exclusive interest in 60.71% for BN and 4.76% for the Opposition. This is a record high for BN and a record low for the Opposition since we began tracking these statistics in December 2012.

The following graph shows the number of users interested in each party since May 2015.

Observations:

• The level of interest in UMNO and DAP have a similar pattern until June 2016 when interest in DAP began to decrease. This decrease actually began in April 2016 from male users, but the drop was offset due to an increase of interest from female users.
• Interest in DAP has fallen dramatically from 4.6 million users in May 2016 to 1.1 million users in August 2016.
• May 2016 was DAP’s highest peak since April 2015, which was also 4.6 million users.
• PKR and PAS have continued to maintain a similar level of interest. PAS had higher levels than PKR from May 2016 – July 2016, but PKR has now overtaken PAS thanks to a sudden drop in August.
• PAS hit a record high of 2.3 million users in July 2016, while PKR hit a previously-recorded high of 2.2 million users in April 2016. This was the highest peak for PAS since December 2012. PKR had previously hit 2.2 million users once before in September 2014.
• MCA has maintained its lead over PAS and PKR since a surge in interest in October 2015. They are also more popular than DAP since July 2016.

The following graphs show the level of interest from potential voters for each party by gender.

Observations:

• Male interest in DAP started to decline in May. This would be partly due to events in April, such as the run-up to the Sarawak state election.
• After large increases leading to a total of 1.5 million users in May and 1.8 million users in June 2016, interest in DAP from female users dropped to 500 thousand in July and subsequently 240 thousand in August 2016.
• UMNO has maintained a lead over all parties for both genders.

The following chart shows the number of Facebook users in Malaysia interested in each political party, aged 21 years and above.

This table lists the breakdown by gender. Please note that male and female figures may not add up to the total due to rounding issues with Facebook’s figures.

Party	Male	Female	Male (%)	Female (%)	Total
DAP	890,000	240,000	80.90	21.82	1,100,000
PKR	1,100,000	660,000	61.11	36.67	1,800,000
PAS	970,000	610,000	60.63	38.13	1,600,000
UMNO	3,600,000	3,200,000	52.94	47.06	6,800,000
GERAKAN	500,000	270,000	64.94	35.06	770,000
MCA	1,500,000	1,100,000	57.69	42.31	2,600,000
MIC	100,000	40,000	71.43	28.57	140,000

 

DAP’s user-base has an unusually high percentage of male users at 80.9%. This is a record high for DAP as their previous peak was 74.42% male in June 2015. On average from April 2013 – May 2016 DAP’s level of interest was 67.16% male.

When we examine the percentage of female interest since 2013, DAP has maintained a low level of interest from women since February 2015, with a spike in June 2016 but a sharp decline in August 2016 to 21.82%. This is shown in the graph below.

(Please note that we do not have data from January 2014 – March 2014)

Since October 2015, UMNO, PKR and PAS have maintained a steady level of interest from women.

4. Changes by State

The table below shows the number of potential voters on Facebook interested in each party, by state. Putrajaya could not be evaluated due to the low number of users. KL + Selangor is included as a separate category as 50% of Facebook users in Malaysia live there.

January 2016

State	DAP	PKR	PAS	UMNO
KL	460000	160000	140000	650000
Johor	520000	170000	140000	730000
Penang	240000	92000	65000	290000
Melaka	110000	45000	47000	200000
Pahang	180000	76000	95000	320000
Terengganu	79000	53000	95000	230000
Perak	240000	87000	94000	370000
Perlis	14000	8200	11000	34000
Kedah	170000	81000	99000	330000
Kelantan	59000	39000	77000	160000
Sarawak	220000	59000	41000	280000
Sabah	140000	63000	50000	300000
Negeri Sembilan	110000	44000	48000	200000
Selangor	2200000	900000	1000000	4000000
Labuan	42000	14000	10000	69000
KL + Selangor	2600000	1000000	1100000	4400000
Malaysia	4100000	1600000	1700000	6800000

 

 

August 2016

The change in interest by state is calculated as a change in percentage from January 2016 totals e.g. “Interest in DAP dropped by 63.04% in Kuala Lumpur” or “Interest in PKR from users in Kuala Lumpur increased by 131.25%”.

State	DAP	PKR	PAS	UMNO	DAP Chg (%)	PKR Chg (%)	PAS Chg (%)	UMNO Chg (%)
KL	170000	370000	320000	1600000	-63.04	131.25	128.57	146.15
Johor	140000	180000	140000	770000	-73.08	5.88	0.00	5.48
Penang	74000	140000	79000	330000	-69.17	52.17	21.54	13.79
Melaka	37000	54000	48000	200000	-66.36	20.00	2.13	0.00
Pahang	35000	68000	77000	270000	-80.56	-10.53	-18.95	-15.63
Terengganu	34000	80000	100000	280000	-56.96	50.94	5.26	21.74
Perak	63000	110000	93000	370000	-73.75	26.44	-1.06	0.00
Perlis	5900	12000	13000	44000	-57.86	46.34	18.18	29.41
Kedah	50000	98000	102000	340000	-70.59	20.99	3.03	3.03
Kelantan	29000	75000	120000	260000	-50.85	92.31	55.84	62.50
Sarawak	150000	64000	38000	300000	-31.82	8.47	-7.32	7.14
Sabah	66000	80000	55000	430000	-52.86	26.98	10.00	43.33
Negeri Sembilan	28000	44000	43000	200000	-74.55	0.00	-10.42	0.00
Selangor	290000	500000	530000	1400000	-86.82	-44.44	-47.00	-65.00
Labuan	39000	29000	19000	140000	-7.14	107.14	90.00	102.90
KL + Selangor	380000	770000	670000	2900000	-85.38	-23.00	-39.09	-34.09
Malaysia	1100000	1800000	1600000	6800000	-73.17	12.50	-5.88	0.00

 

Observations:

• Users in all states lost interest in DAP. The worst losses are listed below:
  • Selangor: -87%
  • Pahang: -81%
  • Negeri: Sembilan -75%
  • Perak: -74%
  • Johor: -73%
  • Kedah: -71%
  • Penang: -69%
• PKR made gains in all states except the following:
  • Selangor: -44%
  • Pahang: -11%
• PAS made gains in all states except the following:
  • Selangor: -47%
  • Pahang: -19%
  • Negeri Sembilan: -10%
  • Sarawak: -7%
  • Perak: -1%
• UMNO made gains in all states except the following:
  • Selangor: -65%
  • Pahang: -16%
• The common pattern is that users in Pahang and Selangor are turning away from the major political parties. PKR, PAS and UMNO made significant gains in other states to help offset some of their losses. PAS made a net loss of 100K users while PKR and UMNO made net gains.

5. Changes by Age Group

The chart below shows Malaysia’s distribution of users by age group in August 2016.

The table below shows a comparison of interest levels by age group between December 2014 and August 2016 for DAP.

DAP	Dec ‘14 Total	Dec ‘14 Male	Dec ‘14 Female	Aug ‘16 Total	Aug ‘16 Male	Aug ’16 Female	Total Growth (%)
13-20	620000	340000	280000	160000	120000	43000	-74.19
21-30	1460000	860000	600000	630000	480000	150000	-56.85
31-40	820000	500000	320000	280000	230000	50000	-65.85
41-50	340000	200000	132000	120000	95000	21000	-64.71
>50	200000	134000	74000	110000	85000	21000	-45.00
Total	3440000	2034000	1406000	1300000	1010000	285000	-62.21

 

DAP’s biggest losses were from users aged 13-20 and 31-50. The user-base among 21-30 year olds has grown from 42.44% to 48.46%. This is well above the current national proportion of 39%. The chart below shows how the distribution of interest in DAP by age group has shifted over time.

The table below shows a comparison of interest levels by age group between December 2014 and August 2016 for UMNO.

UMNO	Dec ‘14 Total	Dec ‘14 Male	Dec ‘14 Female	Aug ‘16 Total	Aug ‘16 Male	Aug ’16 Female	Total Growth (%)
13-20	1320000	700000	620000	1200000	650000	510000	-9.09
21-30	2600000	1360000	1160000	3300000	1800000	1600000	26.92
31-40	1220000	660000	540000	2000000	1000000	960000	63.93
41-50	420000	240000	186000	900000	460000	430000	114.29
>50	240000	150000	86000	570000	330000	240000	137.50
Total	5800000	3110000	2592000	7970000	4240000	3740000	37.41

 

UMNO lost 9% of its users aged 13-20 since December 2014. This may be due to some users moving into the 21-30 year old group. UMNO made gains in other age groups for an overall growth rate of 37% since December 2014.

The chart below shows how the distribution of interest in UMNO by age group has shifted over time.

The proportion of UMNO’s user-base has increased among older users aged 31 and above.

Unfortunately due to the cost of data collection we do not have a detailed breakdown by age group for other political parties.

6. The Impact of a Declining Interest in DAP

The most important trend in recent months is the drop in interest in DAP and its effect on overall interest in the Opposition on Facebook. This graph shows the historical trend in Facebook interest in DAP since April 2013.

As these figures are published by Facebook, we do not know exactly what caused the recent drop. A drop in interest can be caused by any of the following:

• Deletion of user accounts. This seems unlikely in this case because there was no corresponding drop in Malaysia’s Facebook user population. It is not known whether suspended accounts have an impact on the statistics.
• Deletion of Facebook Groups/Pages that promote/publish DAP-related content
• Users un-liking Pages and leaving Groups that promote/publish DAP-related content
• Users previously posting/sharing content about DAP choosing to stop
• Users previously liking / commenting on DAP-related posts choosing to stop
• Internal adjustment by Facebook on which Pages, Groups, keywords and content contribute to the statistics for people interested in DAP

One way to identify contributing factors to an increase/decrease in interest is to examine national issues involving DAP. There is usually a delay of 1-2 months before the effect of an event can be seen in the statistics.

DAP had previously hit a peak of 4.6 million users in April 2015. This came after DAPSY (DAP Socialist Youth) cut ties with PAS Youth and Sarawak DAP and Sabah DAP cut ties with PAS [1][2]. In March 2015 DAP (on a national level) also cut ties with PAS President Datuk Seri Abdul Hadi Awang [3].

These actions by DAP came after PAS’ push for Hudud in Kelantan, which resulted in the tabling and passing of amendments to Kelantan’s Shariah Criminal Code in March.

On June 13^th 2015 the PAS Dewan Ulama Muktamar suggested that PAS cancel political cooperation with DAP [4]. On June 16^th DAP declared that Pakatan Rakyat ceased to exist [5]. In July 2015 PAS officially cut ties with DAP [6]. The breakup of Pakatan Rakyat is the most likely cause of the drop in interest in DAP from 4.4 million users in June 2015 to 3.9 million users in August 2015.

Starting in January 2016, DAP managed to recover their loss in interest to hit the previous peak of 4.6 million users.

During our most recent opinion analysis on Twitter users’ response to Lim Guan Eng’s corruption charges, we observed that interest in the issue was concentrated in Kuala Lumpur, Selangor and Penang. Users in other states did not show much interest in the issue, which is an indication that DAP is not popular. This lack of interest was also visible between March – April 2016 when allegations against Lim Guan Eng first surfaced.

For PKR and PAS, both parties have not advanced past 2.3 million users since April 2013. DAP had passed 2.3 million users in September 2014, so by that comparison PKR and PAS have performed poorly for years. The Opposition’s strength on Facebook was highly dependent on DAP.

When the Opposition was at its strongest point it had an exclusive share of 53.96% of political interest on Facebook, in March 2013:

Today BN has an exclusive share of interest of 60.71%. The drop in interest in DAP has caused BN to gain a significant exclusive share of political interest on Facebook. This is despite the fact that DAP should have received a boost due to coverage of the Sarawak state election, two by-elections and the more recent corruption charges against Chief Minister Lim Guan Eng. However the statistics indicate that DAP was not a strong topic of interest.

The loss in interest from women is quite significant as well as DAP’s user-base is currently 80.9% male, an increase from 57.14% in June 2016.

Since April 2013 DAP was the strongest Opposition party on Facebook in terms of user interest. DAP is now the weakest Opposition party on Facebook compared to PKR and PAS, and will likely face challenges getting their message across on Facebook.

PKR is now the strongest Opposition party on Facebook with only a slight lead over PAS. Both parties have a long track record of competing closely with each other so it is likely that PAS will overtake PKR again in the near future.

7. References

[1] (2015, March 19) DAPSY cuts off ties with PAS Youth in protest over hudud. The Rakyat Post. Retrieved from http://www.therakyatpost.com/news/2015/03/19/dapsy-cuts-off-ties-with-pas-youth-in-protest-over-hudud/

[2] Vanar, M. (2015, March 29) DAP told to leave PAS at national level too after Sabah, Sarawak branches sever ties. The Star Online. Retrieved from http://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2015/03/29/dap-thrown-a-bigger-challenge-party-told-to-leave-pas-at-national-level-too-after-sabah-sarawak-bran/

[3] (2015, March 24) DAP pledges commitment to Pakatan, but ends ties with ‘dishonest’ Hadi. Malay Mail Online. Retrieved from http://www.themalaymailonline.com/malaysia/article/dap-pledges-commitment-to-pakatan-but-ends-ties-with-dishonest-hadi

[4] (2015, June 15) There are parties twisting the Muktamar’s decision on PAS-DAP ties. Astro Awani. Retrieved from http://english.astroawani.com/politics-news/there-are-parties-twisting-muktamars-decision-pas-dap-ties-62428

[5] (2015, June 16) Pakatan Rakyat ceases to exist. DAP Malaysia. Retrieved from http://dapmalaysia.org/Kenyataan-Akhbar/2015/06/16/21138/

[6] (2015, July 11) Malaysia’s opposition PAS officially cuts ties with DAP. The Straits Times. Retrieved from http://www.straitstimes.com/asia/se-asia/malaysias-opposition-pas-officially-cuts-ties-with-dap