1. Background
Prior to the 13th General Election (GE13) we came up with a methodology of predicting election results based on voting patterns in previous elections.
Our method relied on mapping polling lane results to individual voters. This process assigned probability values (chance of turnout; chance of voting for each coalition) to the voter that was not affected if they migrated to another constituency. This is important because between GE12 and GE13 527,849 voters migrated to different constituencies.
The impact of voter migration cannot be measured for a single seat just by comparing results of GE12 and GE13 for that seat. An analysis of the whole country needs to be performed. New voter registrations, voters passing away and voters no longer eligible to vote are other factors that require deep analysis.
After GE13 we were able to apply the same estimation method to voters based on GE13 results. By comparing the shift in probabilities we are able to calculate the swing in support for each coalition. Because we base our calculations on individual voters, we are able to calculate shifts in support based on combinations of the following dimensions:
- By Age
- By Race
- By Gender
- By Urban Development Category (rural / semi-urban / urban)
- By Parliament/State Assembly Seat
- By Polling District
- By Locality
- By Seats Won by Specific Parties
Any voter whose level of support cannot be determined is assigned a probability of 50% and categorised as a fence-sitter. The most reliable metric is age because voters are separated into polling lanes based on age. Additionally we have also categorised the 222 Parliament constituencies as rural, semi-urban or urban based on satellite imagery. The descriptions of each category are:
Rural = villages (kampungs) / small towns / farmland distributed within the seat. Rural seats tend to be physically large with a low population.
Semi-urban = larger towns and/or numerous small towns, may include villages as well
Urban = cities where a majority of the seat is covered by some form of urban development
For this report we will focus on how Pakatan Rakyat (PR) and Barisan Nasional (BN) performed with regular voters (pengundi biasa) in Sarawak. 31 of the total 222 Parliament seats are in Sarawak.
Our analysis will focus on Malay, Chinese and Bumiputera Sarawak voters. Other ethnic groups such as Indians, Orang Asli and Bumiputera Sabah voters will be counted under the ‘Others’ category unless otherwise specified. This is due to their low numbers within the electorate and the lack of detail within the National Census data.
Postal and early voters are not part of this analysis, other than the section on polling lanes. Postal voters need to be analysed separately due to their different voting process and difficulties in campaigning to both groups.
The predicted support for PR based on GE12 was estimated to be low. This is because in GE12 the PR component parties did not contest all seats. SNAP and Independents contested BN in some seats with no PR candidates. There were also seats that were won by BN uncontested. PR was effectively untested in Sarawak.
We tested analysis using SNAP and Independent results as ‘pro-Opposition’ in place of PR. However this approach made little impact on the analysis. A vote for SNAP or Independents also cannot be assumed as a vote for PR. To keep analysis consistent with a ‘BN versus PR’ perspective we did not treat SNAP and Independent candidate results as PR results.
We will also present analysis of seats at the state (DUN) level based on individual voting at the Parliament level. It is not as accurate as performing analysis based on state-level results but it should be applicable for constituencies where voters voted for the same coalition (BN / PR) for both state and Parliament.
Please remember that unless otherwise stated, all statistics in this analysis refer to regular voters in Sarawak only.
2. The Ethnic Divide
The 2 graphs below show the gap between ethnic groups in Sarawak by age in 1970 and 2010, from ages 0 – 39 years. This was taken from the National Census.
The top-most line (red) represents Malays, followed by Chinese (yellow), Other Bumiputera (purple) and Indians (blue). Both graphs use the same scale. Compared to 1970 there are more non-Chinese youth in 2010 relative to Chinese youth.
The National Census data in 1970 only provided a breakdown by ethnicity for these 2 groups. When we separate the Bumiputera & Others statistic for 2010 into Bumiputera Sarawak and Bumiputera Malay (minus the Others), we get the following graph:
In 1970, the division between races within the total population (1.04 million) was:
- 57% Chinese
- 43% Bumiputera & Others (including Malays)
In 2010, the division between races within the total population (2.56 million) was:
- 16% Chinese
- 91% Bumiputera & Others (including Malays), which can be separated into the following (percentages based on total population)
- 37% Malay
- 15% Bumiputera Sarawak
In GE13 (2013), the division between races among 1.08 million total voters (early, postal and regular voters) is estimated to be:
- 99% Malay
- 11% Chinese
- 05% Bumiputera Sarawak (non-Malay)
- 85% Others
In our previous report on Pakatan Rakyat’s performance with the Malay electorate in Peninsular Malaysia, we highlighted that the Malay population and electorate are increasing faster compared to other ethnic groups.
In Sarawak the higher numbers of young Bumiputera Sarawak citizens compared to other ethnicities implies that Bumiputera Sarawak voters will remain the dominant group in the electorate in future elections. This is assuming that voter registration rates across ethnicities remain constant.
3. Summary of Sarawak GE 13 Results
In GE13 PR won 89 seats while BN won 133 seats. In Sarawak PR won 6 seats while BN won 25 seats. The breakdown of seats won by urban development category is shown in the table below:
Urban Development Category / Party | DAP | PKR | BN | Total |
Rural | 1 | 0 | 24 | 25 |
Semi-Urban | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
Urban | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
Total | 5 | 1 | 25 | 31 |
In chart form:
The number of voters by urban development category is listed below:
Urban Development Category / Party | DAP | PKR | BN | Total |
Rural | 56,536 | 0 | 646,119 | 702,655 |
Semi-Urban | 97,744 | 69,564 | 59,601 | 226,909 |
Urban | 132,979 | 0 | 0 | 132,979 |
Total | 287,259 | 69,564 | 705,720 | 1,062,543 |
Focusing on the 3 largest ethnic groups, the number of regular voters of each ethnicity in seats won by respective parties is shown in the table below:
Ethnic Group | DAP | PKR | BN | Total |
Malay | 16,263 | 10,284 | 177,751 | 204,298 |
Chinese | 217,289 | 40,811 | 89,507 | 347,607 |
Bumiputera Sarawak | 52,114 | 17,912 | 433,085 | 503,111 |
In chart form:
By comparing the two sets of data it is clear that BN won the most rural seats and have the most Malay voters (86.7% of the total regular Malay voters) and Bumiputera Sarawak voters (86.1% of the total regular Bumiputera Sarawak voters) in their seats. DAP have the most Chinese voters in their seats (62.5% of the total regular Chinese voters).
This table shows the number of ethnic majority seats won by each party:
Ethnic Majority | DAP | PKR | BN | Total |
Malay majority | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 |
Chinese majority | 5 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
Bumiputera Sarawak majority | 0 | 0 | 19 | 19 |
Mixed | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
In chart form:
Some key points from this chart:
- DAP and PKR won all the Chinese majority seats
- BN won all the Malay majority and Bumiputera Sarawak majority seats
The chart below shows the distribution of the 1,062,543 regular voters by ethnicity in Sarawak:
The following series of charts show the distribution of voters of each ethnic group based on seats won by each party. For example, this chart shows that 87% of Malay voters reside in seats won by BN:
This table shows the total number of Bumiputera Sarawak voters by urban development category in seats won by each party:
Ethnic Group | DAP | PKR | BN | PR | BN(%) | PR(%) | Ethnic Total |
Rural
Bumiputera Sarawak |
14,086 | 0 | 395,819 | 14,086 | 96.56 | 3.44 | 409,905 |
Semi-Urban
Bumiputera Sarawak |
24,734 | 17,912 | 37,266 | 42,646 | 46.63 | 53.37 | 79,912 |
Urban
Bumiputera Sarawak |
13,294 | 0 | 0 | 13,294 | 0 | 100 | 13,294 |
Party Total | 52,114 | 17,912 | 433,085 | 70,026 | 86.08 | 13.92 | 503,111 |
From the ethnic total of 503,111 regular voters, 81.5% of Bumiputera Sarawak voters reside in Rural seats; 15.9% in Semi-Urban seats and 2.6% in Urban seats.
This table shows the total number of Malay voters by urban development category in seats won by each party:
Ethnic Group | DAP | PKR | BN | PR | BN(%) | PR(%) | Ethnic Total |
Rural Malay | 1,166 | 0 | 172,387 | 1,166 | 99.33 | 0.67 | 173,553 |
Semi-Urban Malay | 7,067 | 10,284 | 5,364 | 17,351 | 23.61 | 76.39 | 22,715 |
Urban Malay | 8,030 | 0 | 0 | 8,030 | 0 | 100 | 8,030 |
Party Total | 16,263 | 10,284 | 177,751 | 26,547 | 87.01 | 12.99 | 204,298 |
From the ethnic total of 204,298 regular voters, 85% of Malay voters reside in Rural seats; 11.1% in Semi-Urban seats and 3.9% in Urban seats.
This table shows the total number of Chinese voters by urban development category in seats won by each party:
Ethnic Group | DAP | PKR | BN | PR | BN(%) | PR(%) | Ethnic Total |
Rural Chinese | 41,179 | 0 | 72,815 | 41,179 | 63.88 | 36.12 | 113,994 |
Semi-Urban Chinese | 65,690 | 40,811 | 16,692 | 106,501 | 13.55 | 86.45 | 123,193 |
Urban Chinese | 110,420 | 0 | 0 | 110,420 | 0 | 100 | 110,420 |
Party Total | 217,289 | 40,811 | 89,507 | 258,100 | 25.75 | 74.25 | 347,607 |
From the ethnic total of 347,607 regular voters, 32.8% of Chinese voters reside in Rural seats; 35.4% in Semi-Urban seats and 31.8% in Urban seats. Chinese voters are almost evenly distributed between the 3 categories of seats.
Key points for this section are:
- DAP and PKR victories were won mainly in urban and semi-urban seats.
- PR parties represent 74% of Chinese voters;
- BN represents 86% of Bumiputera Sarawak voters
- BN won 96% of rural seats containing 96.56% of rural Bumiputera Sarawak voters and 99.33% of rural Malay voters
- BN seats represent 87% of Malay voters and 86% of Bumiputera Sarawak voters
- PR parties won both urban seats and 4/5 semi-urban seats. Together these 6 seats contain 62.4% of Chinese voters; 13% of Malay voters; and 13.9% of Bumiputera Sarawak voters.
- DAP represents 64% of the combined urban and semi-urban voters
- DAP represents 62.5% of Chinese voters
This section is a general overview that shows the size of the electorate represented by each party. However representation is not the same as support, as each seat has supporters of both PR and BN. Support is covered in the following sections.
4. Measuring Regular Voter Support by Age
During the election voters are grouped into polling lanes based on age. The results of each lane are reflective of support by the age group. By mapping registered voters to polling lane results we can estimate the support by race and age. Postal voting lanes are not shown in the charts. Not all lanes are of equal size.
The bubble chart below shows the average probability of Malay voters in a specific polling lane voting for PR:
Each point in the graph represents one polling lane. The horizontal scale shows the percentage of Malay voters in the lane. The vertical scale shows the percentage probability of Malay voters in that lane of voting for PR. The size of the bubble is relative to the number of voters with large bubbles representing high numbers of voters. The level of support can be analysed by looking at where the largest circles are concentrated.
Any point above the 50% probability line is good for PR. From this scatter plot we can tell that PR does not perform well with Malay voters. Even in fence-sitters in mixed polling lanes the number of voters is small (16% of the total regular Malay voters). The probability of voting for PR is significantly low in polling lanes with >70% Malay voters.
For comparison, here is the bubble chart for Bumiputera Sarawak and voters from other ethnicities (not including Malay or Chinese). Other ethnicities had to be included because of the way our polling lane data was structured in 2013.
Support for PR is low particularly in the majority of polling lanes where the percentage of Bumiputera Sarawak and other ethnicities is high.
This is the bubble chart for Chinese voters:
There is a clear trend of the probability of Chinese voters voting for PR increasing as the percentage of Chinese voters increase.
This bubble chart shows the probabilities for postal and early voters.
The probability of postal and early voters voting for PR is very low, almost entirely concentrated below 20%. The only exception was Chinese voters at the 50% line, which were very few in number.
The following graph shows how average voter support shifted by age group, divided by seats won by respective parties. This was calculated by taking the average of individual support values from voters across all seats for each age group. This gives a picture of how voters in those seats favoured the winning party.
Some key points from this graph are:
- DAP had the highest positive swing from voters of all ages, particularly aged 42 and below
- PKR and BN seats had similar levels of improvement with swing values between +6% to +12% for voters aged 70 and below
- The PKR seat (they only won Miri) had a higher swing from voters aged 33 and below and voters aged 58 – 67.
This graph shows the average level of support from voters in seats won by respective parties after the swing in GE13. Anything close to or above 50% is good for PR.
Some key points from this graph are:
- DAP has the highest level of support from voters in their seats
- PKR has above 50% support in their seat, except from voters aged 70 and older
- BN has low support for PR in their seats, consistently below 30%
- There is a dip in support from voters aged 68 years and older in DAP and PKR seats
The following graphs show the average shift in voter support by age group and voter support levels for Malay voters.
Some key points from these graphs are:
- DAP has the highest swing values from voters in their seats, though support remains low at below 40% for all ages
- PKR had minor improvement from Malay voters in their seat but support remains just below 50%
- Malay voters in BN seats swung away from PR, with the negative swing increasing with age. The result is a support level for PR that is below 20%
- The negative swing in BN seats reflects 87% of Malay voters.
The following graphs show the average shift in voter support by age group and voter support levels for Chinese voters.
Some key points from these graphs are:
- DAP has the highest level of improvement from voters in their seats, which represents 62% of Chinese voters
- Chinese voters swung to PR in all seats, with greater improvements in BN seats compared to PKR
- After the swing support levels from Chinese voters in BN and PKR seats are at a similarly high level
- Support from the Chinese electorate appears reliably strong.
The following graphs show the average shift in voter support by age group and voter support levels for Bumiputera Sarawak voters.
Some key points from these graphs are:
- Voters in BN and DAP seats recorded the highest swing levels towards PR, largely between 5% – 10%. BN seats recorded the highest swing values.
- PKR had better swing values from voters aged 48 years and above
- After the swing support for PR was strongest in the PKR seat (Miri) with values between 40% and 50%.
- Support for PR in DAP and BN seats remains low, between 23% – 33%.
- Support from the Bumiputera Sarawak electorate appears weak. DAP and PKR may manage to increase their odds by repeating a positive swing of 5% – 15%, but support values in BN seats are very low. BN seats represent 86% of Bumiputera Sarawak voters.
This section describes voter support by age, taken as an average of support across voters within each age group. These graphs do not show the number of voters – a large negative swing from a small group of voters can be easily offset by a small positive swing from a large group of voters.
These graphs only serve as an indicator of where average support levels are at and what direction they are heading in. Because averages of positive and negative swing values can results in a net positive or negative, we need to look at individual voter support levels to get a more accurate reading.
5. Measuring Overall Regular Voter Support
Because individual voters have their own support and swing statistics, we can calculate the proportion of the electorate that is leaning towards PR (>50% probability of voting PR); leaning towards BN (<50% probability of voting PR); and on the fence (50% probability of voting PR).
Voters who are leaning BN might still vote for PR, so this metric is only an indicator of how good the odds are for PR/BN to win support from the electorate. It is important to note that PR did not perform well or contest every seat in GE12, so statistically they were starting from a very weak position. This is why certain swing values are very high.
The two charts below show the predicted and estimated support from regular voters in Sarawak. By comparing the two we can see how support has shifted.
Prior to GE13, the electorate was leaning heavily towards BN with only 10% leaning towards PR. After GE13 PR increased their share of support by 20 percentage points while BN lost 23 percentage points. The proportion of fence-sitters increased to 12%.
The charts below show voter support from the Malay electorate:
Based on GE12 results, the predicted support for PR from the Malay electorate was <1%. After GE13 support for PR dropped to 0. Any votes obtained came from the fence sitters.
The charts below show voter support from the Bumiputera Sarawak electorate. This does not include other ethnicities (as in the polling lane bubble charts).
PR managed to increase their share of support from 2% to 9%. Fence-sitters increased by 3 percentage points while BN supporters dropped by 10 percentage points.
The charts below show voter support from the Chinese electorate.
The shift in support was quite dramatic due to PR’s poor performance and lack of participation in all seats in GE12. Support for PR increased by 53 percentage points, while support for BN dropped by 55 percentage points. Fence-sitters increased by 2 percentage points.
For comparison here are the voter support charts for the Chinese electorate in Peninsular Malaysia:
In Peninsular Malaysia the shift in support from Chinese voters was less dramatic with PR gaining 16 percentage points. BN lost 17 percentage points, reducing its share to only 3%.
By comparing this with Sarawak we can say that PR has stronger support from Chinese voters in Sarawak at 79% compared to Peninsular Malaysia at 77%. The smaller proportion of fence-sitters (12% for Sarawak versus 20% for Peninsular Malaysia) implies that support from the Chinese electorate is more stable.
6. A Closer Look at Iban and Bidayuh Support
Based on detailed information on voters we can measure support from Iban and Bidayuh communities. The breakdown of the 503,111 Bumiputera Sarawak voters by ethnicity is listed below.
Ethnic Group | Regular Voters | (%) of Bumiputera Sarawak |
Iban | 258,043 | 51.29 |
Bidayuh | 74,676 | 14.84 |
Other Bumiputera Sarawak | 100,888 | 20.05 |
Unknown Bumiputera Sarawak | 69,504 | 13.81 |
The unknown Bumiputera voters presented a possible issue, however their numbers are spread out across all Sarawak seats. There was no clear pattern to suggest that they are primarily from a single ethnic group. The findings of this section should still apply to Iban majority and Bidayuh majority seats.
The table below shows the percentage of Iban and Bidayuh voters in PR and BN seats.
Ethnic Group | Regular Voters | In PR Seats (%) | In BN Seats (%) |
Iban | 258,043 | 16.04 | 83.96 |
Bidayuh | 74,676 | 7.78 | 92.22 |
The Bidayuh-majority seats are listed below:
Seat Code | Name | Winning Party | Bidayuh (%) | Avg. Bidayuh Support for PR (GE13) (%) |
199 | SERIAN | BN | 65.25 | 19.7 |
192 | MAS GADING | BN | 63.47 | 18.9 |
198 | MAMBONG | BN | 58.77 | 25.0 |
The Iban-majority seats are listed below:
Seat Code | Name | Winning Party | Iban (%) | Avg. Iban Support for PR (GE13) (%) |
209 | JULAU | BN | 82.21 | 15.9 |
214 | SELANGAU | BN | 77.84 | 17.6 |
203 | LUBOK ANTU | BN | 72.99 | 16.6 |
210 | KANOWIT | BN | 71.33 | 34.8 |
215 | KAPIT | BN | 66.33 | 18.9 |
202 | SRI AMAN | BN | 63.14 | 20.6 |
6.1 Iban Support by Age
The following graphs show the average shift in voter support by age group and voter support levels for Iban voters.
Some key points from these graphs are:
- Voters in BN seats had high swing values towards PR, averaging at 15%.
- Voters in DAP seats had high swing values towards PR with voters below 34 years old increasing support by 9.24% – 11.93%.
- Voters in the PKR seat had a marginal swing towards PR other than voters aged 36 – 48 where there was a negative swing of -0.09% to -2.83%.
- After the swing support from Iban voters was highest in the PKR seat, though still below the 50% line
- DAP and BN seats had low support levels across all age groups
6.2 Overall Iban Support
The charts below show voter support from the Iban electorate.
The percentages are identical to the previous Bumiputera Sarawak charts. PR managed to increase their share of support from 2% to 9%. Fence-sitters increased by 3 percentage points while BN supporters dropped by 10 percentage points.
6.3 Bidayuh Support by Age
The following graphs show the average shift in voter support by age group and voter support levels for Bidayuh voters.
Some key points from these graphs are:
- Voters in BN seats had high swing values towards PR, averaging at 15%.
- Voters in DAP seats had the highest swing values towards PR with voters below 38 years old increasing support by 22.6% – 32.5%.
- Voters in BN seats swung to PR by an average of 9.5%
- Voters in the PKR seat had a marginal swing towards PR mainly concentrated between ages 27 – 35. There was a negative swing from voters between ages 37 – 48 (except 45 year olds).
- After the swing support from Bidayuh voters was highest in the PKR seat though still below 50%. Support ranged from 35.4% – 50.7%.
- Support from Bidayuh voters in DAP seats was similar to PKR’s levels, ranging from 36% – 47%
- Support from Bidayuh voters in BN seats were consistently low at an average of 22%.
6.4 Overall Bidayuh Support
The charts below show voter support from the Bidayuh electorate.
These charts show that despite the better swing values for Bidayuh voters compared to Iban voters, PR actually lost support. This is because voters who swung to PR came more from the Leaning BN group and fence-sitters group, with the shift being too small for them to go over to the Leaning PR group. PR’s share of support was reduced to 1%. Fence-sitters increased by 5 percentage points while BN supporters dropped by 4 percentage points.
7. Estimating Performance in State Assembly Seats
Because we measure voter support at the individual level, based on where they are registered to vote we can summarise voter support and swing and the State Assembly (DUN) level. This is based on the assumption that the majority of voters would have voted for the same party/coalition for both the State and Federal levels.
The following table lists the 71 State Assembly Seats and their support levels for PR in GE13. The list is sorted by the support for PR from highest to lowest. The winning party for each seat in Sarawak’s State Election in 2011 is shown.
Parliament Seat Code | DUN
Seat Code |
Name | Winning Party (2011) | Support for PR in GE13 (%) |
195 | 9 | PADUNGAN | DAP | 76.83 |
195 | 10 | PENDING | DAP | 74.91 |
211 | 45 | BUKIT ASSEK | DAP | 74.20 |
196 | 11 | BATU LINTANG | PKR | 73.89 |
212 | 48 | PELAWAN | DAP | 73.27 |
196 | 12 | KOTA SENTOSA | DAP | 72.90 |
205 | 34 | KRIAN | PKR | 61.98 |
219 | 64 | PUJUT | DAP | 59.11 |
217 | 59 | KIDURONG | DAP | 57.80 |
208 | 39 | REPOK | DAP | 54.36 |
219 | 63 | PIASAU | DAP | 53.45 |
196 | 13 | BATU KAWAH | DAP | 52.53 |
220 | 67 | TELANG USAN | BN | 51.70 |
208 | 40 | MERADONG | DAP | 50.30 |
211 | 46 | DUDONG | DAP | 50.05 |
219 | 65 | SENADIN | BN | 49.93 |
222 | 70 | BA`KELALAN | PKR | 47.56 |
220 | 66 | MARUDI | BN | 46.44 |
212 | 47 | BAWANG ASSAN | BN | 45.17 |
202 | 27 | SIMANGGANG | BN | 43.87 |
218 | 62 | LAMBIR | BN | 40.44 |
210 | 44 | MACHAN | BN | 39.38 |
198 | 16 | BENGOH | BN | 36.83 |
212 | 49 | NANGKA | BN | 34.74 |
210 | 43 | NGEMAH | BN | 34.12 |
198 | 17 | TARAT | BN | 33.46 |
221 | 68 | BUKIT KOTA | BN | 32.79 |
218 | 61 | BEKENU | BN | 32.70 |
205 | 33 | KALAKA | BN | 31.71 |
216 | 57 | BELAGA | BN | 31.09 |
192 | 2 | TASIK BIRU | BN | 31.06 |
217 | 60 | KEMENA | BN | 30.63 |
204 | 31 | LAYAR | BN | 30.53 |
199 | 19 | KEDUP | BN | 29.78 |
215 | 54 | PELAGUS | Independent | 28.97 |
194 | 8 | SATOK | BN | 28.76 |
214 | 53 | KAKUS | BN | 28.75 |
194 | 6 | TUPONG | BN | 28.60 |
221 | 69 | BATU DANAU | BN | 28.19 |
197 | 15 | MUARA TUANG | BN | 28.16 |
201 | 24 | BETING MARO | BN | 24.26 |
217 | 58 | JEPAK | BN | 23.99 |
197 | 14 | ASAJAYA | BN | 23.24 |
201 | 22 | SEBUYAU | BN | 23.18 |
201 | 23 | LINGGA | BN | 22.99 |
203 | 29 | BATANG AIR | BN | 22.12 |
204 | 30 | SARIBAS | BN | 20.02 |
192 | 1 | OPAR | BN | 19.98 |
193 | 3 | TANJONG DATU | BN | 19.87 |
204 | 32 | BUKIT SABAN | BN | 19.80 |
222 | 71 | BUKIT SARI | BN | 18.77 |
202 | 26 | BUKIT BEGUNAN | BN | 18.70 |
199 | 18 | TEBEDU | BN | 18.07 |
209 | 41 | PAKAN | BN | 17.53 |
209 | 42 | MELUAN | BN | 17.49 |
202 | 25 | BALAI RINGIN | BN | 17.15 |
194 | 7 | SAMARIANG | BN | 17.06 |
216 | 56 | BALEH | BN | 15.92 |
200 | 21 | SIMUNJAN | BN | 15.76 |
213 | 51 | BALINGIAN | BN | 15.49 |
207 | 37 | DARO | BN | 15.18 |
206 | 35 | BELAWAI | BN | 15.12 |
203 | 28 | ENGKILILI | BN | 13.26 |
193 | 4 | PANTAI DAMAI | BN | 12.92 |
193 | 5 | DEMAK LAUT | BN | 12.73 |
207 | 38 | JEMORENG | BN | 11.96 |
214 | 52 | TAMIN | BN | 11.77 |
200 | 20 | SADONG JAYA | BN | 11.49 |
215 | 55 | KATIBAS | BN | 11.18 |
206 | 36 | SEMOP | BN | 10.88 |
213 | 50 | DALAT | BN | 10.50 |
In the upcoming state election there will be 82 seats instead of 71 so the statistics here will not be directly applicable. It depends on which of the old seats will be divided to create new seats.
However based on these numbers it is likely that the Opposition will retain their 15 seats and add 2 more seats – N65.SENADIN and N67.TELANG USAN. Based on the current support levels and swing indicators, the Opposition can hope to win at most 22 seats starting from PADUNGAN to MACHAN in the above list.
8. Conclusion
PR performed poorly with Malay and Bumiputera Sarawak voters. BN won seats containing 87% of Malay voters and 86% of Bumiputera Sarawak voters. Support for PR from Malay voters dropped to the point where zero voters are estimated to be leaning towards PR. The Malay electorate also swung away from PR in seats won by BN. This negative shift was not observed at the same level for other ethnic groups.
Support from Bumiputera Sarawak voters only increased by 7 percentage points. Between Iban and Bidayuh voters, PR performed better with Iban voters. However the level of support for PR from voters of both ethnic groups remains low.
The urban-rural divide was clearly demonstrated by PR winning all the urban seats and BN winning 24 out of 25 rural seats. The Opposition needs to expand its base into the rural areas.
PR performed well with Chinese voters, even better than in Peninsular Malaysia. However PR won all the Chinese-majority seats and 74% of the Chinese electorate are in PR’s constituencies. Campaigns that target the Chinese electorate will not deliver enough seats to form the government.
Based on the GE13 results BN remains in a comfortable position with the Malay and Bumiputera Sarawak electorate.
The only way for the Opposition (either Pakatan Harapan or another state-level coalition) to win the state is to address the issues that caused the Malay voters and different Bumiputera Sarawak ethnic groups to vote for BN. As mentioned in the previous section the Opposition only stands to win 15 – 22 state seats without a dramatic shift in support.
Appendix 1: Level of Support by Parliament Seat
Seat Code | Seat Name | Majority Race | Urban Development Category | Avg. Support for PR (%) | Avg. Support for BN (%) |
192 | MAS GADING | Bumiputera Sarawak | Rural | 26.92 | 40.40 |
193 | SANTUBONG | Malay | Rural | 14.50 | 83.16 |
194 | PETRA JAYA | Malay | Rural | 24.02 | 75.44 |
195 | BANDAR KUCHING | Chinese | Urban | 74.40 | 25.47 |
196 | STAMPIN | Chinese | Urban | 64.83 | 34.43 |
197 | KOTA SAMARAHAN | Malay | Rural | 23.31 | 75.32 |
198 | MAMBONG | Bumiputera Sarawak | Rural | 34.57 | 61.62 |
199 | SERIAN | Bumiputera Sarawak | Rural | 24.84 | 72.98 |
200 | BATANG SADONG | Malay | Rural | 13.85 | 85.25 |
201 | BATANG LUPAR | Malay | Rural | 23.49 | 75.16 |
202 | SRI AMAN | Bumiputera Sarawak | Rural | 26.91 | 53.99 |
203 | LUBOK ANTU | Bumiputera Sarawak | Rural | 17.45 | 54.66 |
204 | BETONG | Bumiputera Sarawak | Rural | 23.30 | 75.73 |
205 | SARATOK | Bumiputera Sarawak | Rural | 44.69 | 51.66 |
206 | TANJONG MANIS | Bumiputera Sarawak | Rural | 13.01 | 86.03 |
207 | IGAN | Bumiputera Sarawak | Rural | 13.45 | 85.39 |
208 | SARIKEI | Chinese | Semi-Urban | 52.16 | 47.33 |
209 | JULAU | Bumiputera Sarawak | Rural | 17.48 | 58.30 |
210 | KANOWIT | Bumiputera Sarawak | Rural | 36.93 | 58.46 |
211 | LANANG | Chinese | Rural | 61.17 | 38.57 |
212 | SIBU | Chinese | Semi-Urban | 55.10 | 43.89 |
213 | MUKAH | Bumiputera Sarawak | Rural | 12.94 | 74.70 |
214 | SELANGAU | Bumiputera Sarawak | Rural | 19.24 | 58.13 |
215 | KAPIT | Bumiputera Sarawak | Rural | 22.55 | 76.50 |
216 | HULU RAJANG | Bumiputera Sarawak | Rural | 22.31 | 62.24 |
217 | BINTULU | Bumiputera Sarawak | Semi-Urban | 42.59 | 56.85 |
218 | SIBUTI | Bumiputera Sarawak | Rural | 37.13 | 61.95 |
219 | MIRI | Chinese | Semi-Urban | 53.10 | 45.70 |
220 | BARAM | Bumiputera Sarawak | Rural | 49.14 | 48.40 |
221 | LIMBANG | Mixed | Rural | 30.89 | 68.68 |
222 | LAWAS | Bumiputera Sarawak | Rural | 30.34 | 68.49 |