As a follow-up to our previous analysis on voter sentiment, we have collected social media statistics that are relevant to the current by-election in P76.Teluk Intan. The Democratic Action Party (DAP) under Pakatan Rakyat (PR) and GERAKAN under Barisan Nasional (BN) are contesting in the by-election, so our analysis will focus on these parties.
From what we have so far it is clear that social media usage will not have a big impact on the by-election results. Popularity on Facebook or Twitter are not going to be an indication of which party wins.
1. Twitter Coverage
The map below shows the areas where users tweeted from during the 13th General Election in May 2013. Areas with users are shaded in green. Flag-pins indicate parliament seats and the party that won. The borders of Teluk Intan outlined in red.
From this map it is clear that most of the users are concentrated in the town of Teluk Intan (in the north-west) but not present in most of the constituency.
2. Facebook Usage
These are statistics on Facebook users residing within 20 kilometres of Teluk Intan (the town). This will include users residing in neighbouring constituences, however it is the best estimate that we can provide for campaigners. Male and female stats do not always add up to the total because these numbers are estimates provided by Facebook.
2.1 Demographics
Total users (aged 13+): 50,000
Male users (aged 13+): 26,000 (52%)
Female users (aged 13+): 24,000 (48%)
Potential voters (aged 21+): 32,000 (64% of total users)
Male potential voters (aged 21+): 16,000 (50%)
Female potential voters (aged 21+): 15,600 (48.75%)
2.2 Political Interest
The following stats on political interest are based on the 32,000 potential voters.
Interest in political parties, PR or BN (total): 15,400 (48.13% of Teluk Intan)
Interest in political parties, PR or BN (male): 8,000 (51.95% of total)
Interest in political parties, PR or BN (female): 7,200 (46.75% of total)
Interest in PR (total): 11,200 (35% of Teluk Intan)
Interest in PR (male): 6,200 (55.35% of total)
Interest in PR (female): 5,000 (48% of total)
Interest in BN (total): 12,600 (39.38% of Teluk Intan)
Interest in BN (male): 6,800 (53.97% of total)
Interest in BN (female): 5,800 (46.03% of total)
From these statistics we can determine the partisanship of voters, as shown below.
Interest in PR only (total): 2,800 (18.18% of political party interest)
Interest in PR and BN, Mixed (total): 8,400 (54.54% of political party interest)
Interest in BN only (total): 4,200 (27.27% of political party interest)
On a national level, political partisanship as of May 2014 was:
PR only: 18.52%
Mixed: 51.85%
BN only: 29.63%
The partisanship of Teluk Intan users is slightly higher in the Mixed category, meaning that potential voters are taking a greater interest in both PR and BN.
2.3 Political Party Interest
The following stats on political interest are based on the 32,000 potential voters.
Interest in DAP (total): 5,600 (17.5% of Teluk Intan, 50% of PR)
Interest in DAP (male): 3,600 (64.29% of total)
Interest in DAP (female): 2,200 (39.29% of total)
Interest in GERAKAN (total): 1,780 (5.56% of Teluk Intan, 14.13% of BN)
Interest in GERAKAN (male): 1,240 (69.67% of total)
Interest in GERAKAN (female): 540 (30.34% of total)
Interest in UMNO (total): 9,800 (5.56% of Teluk Intan, 77.78% of BN)
Interest in UMNO (male): 5,400 (55.10% of total)
Interest in UMNO (female): 4,400 (44.90% of total)
3. Future Analysis
We are currently collecting tweets related to the by-election for later analysis. During the campaign week we will be posting word clouds about the 2 candidates on our Facebook Page. This will be done on a daily basis.
The word clouds we have prepared to-date are listed below. Words are sized based on how often they are mentioned in tweets. The names of candidates have been removed from their respective word clouds so viewers can focus on what’s being said in relation to the candidates. Try comparing the word clouds between both candidates and between different days as a form of analysis.
