The public debt is the total amount owed by the Federal Government, both domestic and external. Since 1997 the Federal Government debt (public debt) has steadily increased. The latest figure for June 2011 places the debt at RM 437 billion.

This chart shows the growth rate on a yearly basis from 1996 – June 2011. It is helpful for analysts to identify our worst and best years. From this it is easy

to see that the 2008 – 2009 recession was the worst period, where the debt increased by 18.26%.A lower growth rate can be achieved by the government either by increasing revenue or lowering expenses.

Not only has the total debt been increasing, but the rate of growth has for the most part remained high. It crossed RM100 billion in 1998. It crossed 200 billion in 2004. It crossed 300 billion in 2008. It crossed 400 billion in 2010.

In other words, the time taken for the debt to grow has been:

100 billion to 200 billion = 6 years
200 billion to 300 billion = 4 years
300 billion to 400 billion = 2 years

That is an exponential growth rate. The average growth rate from 2005 – 2010 was 10.6%/year. If the current growth rate holds steady at 10%, the public debt will cross RM 1 trillion by 2020.

Ahmed Kamal
19th October 2011

——
Data used in this graph:

Format – Year : Percentage change from previous year

1996 : -1.847453732
1997 : 0.266500151
1998 : 14.6808274
1999: 8.724702049
2000 : 12.04802084
2001 : 15.99828061
2002 : 13.20235514
2003 : 14.42990246
2004 : 14.75734636
2005 : 5.560787355
2006 : 5.927756155
2007 : 10.11332439
2008 : 14.89003532
2009 : 18.25791272
2010 : 12.33905283
June 2011 :7.389075438

Published On: October 19th, 2011 / Categories: Analyses / Tags: , , , /

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